Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: review and forecast

Current trend
This week, the USD/CAD pair has been falling like it did in the previous month. At present, the price remains near the level of the beginning of December 2015.
Today, series of macroeconomic publications are due both in the US and Canada. At 3:30 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to statistics on US labour market, including data on unemployment rate. It is hard to predict what impact these releases will have on the American currency. At the same time, analysts’ forecasts for Canada’s data are generally negative.

Support and resistance
According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue moving down. The price remains between the middle and the lower MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3060, 1.2860.
Resistance levels: 1.3540, 1.3700, 1.3900, 1.4070.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.3300 with the target at 1.3060.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3540 with the target at 1.3700.

 

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USD/JPY: pair trades flat

Current trend
The USD/JPY pair ended the previous trading week near the opening levels.
On Friday, the Yen was growing moderately during the morning session supported by the statements of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the central bank is not considering any further cuts in interest rates. More support for the currency came from favorable data on labour cash earning which were up by 0.4% in January after the previous 0.2% growth.
Then, the pair gained back its losses amid US macroeconomic data but did not manage to strengthen further, as the US Dollar came under pressure due to a fall in the indicators of average hourly earnings and average weekly hours.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is directed horizontally while the price range is trying to remain within the current borders. MACD is slowing down its growth but is still keeping a relatively strong buy signal. Stochastic has left the overbought zone and moving up-and-down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 113.50, 113.00, 112.50, 112.00, 110.97 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 113.85, 114.54 (2 March high), 115.00, 115.56, 116.00 (8 February level), 116.50, 117.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 113.85 with targets at 115.00, 115.60 and stop-loss at 113.00. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 113.00 with targets at 112.00, 111.50, 111.00 and stop-loss at 113.70. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: review and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly grew amid some decline in oil prices and the strengthening US Dollar.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and the regulator’s Rate Statement. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at the current 0.5%. High volatility is expected on the market during the news releases.

Support and resistance
The pair is trading near the strong resistance level at 1.3470 that the price has tested three times since the beginning of the month.
The likeliest scenario seems a price rebound from the level of 1.3470 that coincides with the upper MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, and its further fall towards the middle MA of the indicator at the level of 1.3364.
Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3585.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3470 with the target at 1.3364 and stop-loss at 1.3495.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3495 with the target at 1.3585 and stop-loss at 1.3470.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair showed a volatile trade amid the monetary policy ECB meeting. As soon as the decision to cut the refinance rate to zero and the deposit rate to -0.4% was made, the pair significantly fell. However, later comments by Mario Draghi that in the near future more monetary policy easing in unlikely sent the pair in the opposite direction. At the same time, pair’s growth was limited by strong data on Initial Jobless Claims form the US that fell to 259 thousands that was better than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on Imports and Exports from the US.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price broke out the upper MA of Bollinger Bands suggesting a downward correction possibility towards the level of 1.1038. MACD histogram is in the positive zone but its volumes are falling indicating a correction possibility as well.
Support levels: 1.1158, 1.1038, 1.1000, 1.0990.
Resistance levels: 1.1217, 1.1250, 1.1286.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown and consolidation below the level of 1.1100 with targets at 1.1038, 1.0990 and stop-loss at 1.1125.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1217 with targets at 1.1250, 1.1286 and stop-loss at 1.1242.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: pair shows flat

Current trend

In the end of last week, the pair significantly grew amid the publication of strong data in the US and the ECB decision to expand its QE program.
At the same time, the Yen remains under pressure prior to the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy that is due tomorrow. Investors worry that the regulator can apply fresh measures aimed at limiting growth in the Yen and stimulating inflation growth.
In addition, tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on Industrial Production in Japan.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range significantly narrowed. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 113.50 (local low), 113.00, 112.50 (9 and 10 March lows), 112.00, 110.97 (11 February low).
Resistance levels: 114.00 (local high), 114.54 (2 March high), 115.00, 115.56, 116.00, 116.50, 117.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 114.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 115.00, 115.56 and stop-loss at 113.50. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 114.00 with targets at 113.00, 112.50 and stop-loss at 114.60. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/JPY: pair is falling

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is showing a significant decline. The pair was substantially pressured by the Bank of Japan statement. As was expected, the regulator left monetary policy unchanged. However, in its Monetary Policy Statement it noted that prospects for the world economy growth remain gloom.
In addition, according to today’s RBA Meeting Minutes, the Australian GDP continues growing but labour market conditions are still poor. In particular, wages growth remain low.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD turned down and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is near the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend considering correctional sales.
Support levels: 85.00 (local low), 84.46, 83.69 (10 March low), 83.00, 82.41, 82.06.
Resistance levels: 85.69 (local high), 86.00, 86.39 (local high), 87.00, 87.30 (4 January high), 88.00, 88.60.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 83.00, 82.00 and stop-loss at 85.00. Validity – 2-4 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 85.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 86.39, 87.00 and stop-loss at 84.00. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Since the beginning of the week, the GBP/US D pair has been trading down. Having reached its month high at 1.4435, the price turned down and lost more than 250 points.

Today, market volatility remains low. The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision tomorrow. As for today, market participants are waiting for the Fed’s interest rate decision. The regulator is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, attention needs to be paid to data on inflation and industrial production, due in the US today as well.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price range of Bollinger Bands is widening. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4105, 1.4043, 1.3990.
Resistance levels: 1.4159, 1.4197, 1.4240, 1.4284.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.4105 with targets at 1.4043, 1.3990 and stop-loss at 1.4130.

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidates above the level of 1.4197 with targets at 1.4284, 1.4346 and stop-loss at 1.4166.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: pair is falling

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly declined after the US Fed made its Interest Rate Decision. As was expected, the rate remained unchanged at the current 0.5% but the regulator lowered its own forecasts of the pace of further monetary policy tightening. In addition, the regulator acknowledged the existence of substantial risks for the growth of the US and world economies.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to the speeches by Fed officials and to data on inflation in Canada.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening, but the price currently remains outside of its borders. MACD turned down and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is near the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3100 (local low), 1.3037 (3 November 2015 low), 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2951, 1.2900.
Resistance levels: 1.3164 (local high), 1.3224, 1.3265, 1.3300 (psychologically important level), 1.3370, 1.3404 (local high), 1.3457, 1.3500, 1.3586 (29 February high), 1.3650.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.3100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3200, 1.3265 and stop-loss at 1.3030. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidates below the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3165. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the pair continued falling amid weakness of the US Dollar and the publication of mixed macroeconomic data in the US. The Current Account deficit amounted to 125.3 billion, while economists predicted it at 118.9 billion USD. At the same time, the number of Initial Jobless Claims grew to 265 thousands that was yet better than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core. According to forecast, the index will grow that might add to pressure on the pair.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is near the oversold zone.
Support levels: 1.2965, 1.2940.
Resistance levels: 1.3030, 1.3100, 1.3165, 1.3210, 1.3265, 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3365, 1.3400, 1.3465, 1.3530.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2965 with targets at 1.2940, 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2990. Validity – 1-3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3030 with the target at 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3000. Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the NZD/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range. Market participants are waiting for new drivers which will determine further dynamics in the pair. However, as no macroeconomic releases are due in New Zealand and not so much important data is expected to be released in the US, the pair is likely to keep trading flat.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators suggest the pair tends to trade within the sideways range. Bollinger Bands are narrowing down while the price remains near the middle MA. Later, a slight decline is possible after which a correction can be expected.
Support levels: 0.6730, 0.6630, 0.6610.
Resistance levels: 0.6795, 0.6860.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 0.6730 and stop-loss at 0.6795.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6795 with the target at 0.6860.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: pair moving sideways

Current trend
This week, the AUD/USD pair has been trading within a sideways range of about 100 points (0.7648-0.7550). At present, the Australian currency gains support from a slow growth in commodity prices (CRB index has been has been growing for two months already). Moreover, RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens in his speech delivered to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said he has a favorable outlook for Australia’s economy. Economic and financial conditions in the country are improving and the Regulator is experienced enough in dealing with difficulties. Nevertheless, these factors have not given enough support for the pair to strengthen to 0.7700.

Support and resistance
The pair is likely to remain within the range in the short term. Though technical indicators suggest a fall (MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling; Stochastic lines are directed downward), the pair can start moving down only if it manages to consolidate below the 38.2% Fibonacci fan line and the level of 0.7535. The level of 0.7665 is seen as the key one for the Bulls.
Support levels: 0.7550, 0.7535, 0.7456 and 0.7391.
Resistance levels: 0.7648, 0.7665, 0.7700 and 0.7770.

Trading tips
At present, positions should be placed within the sideways range. Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7535 with targets at 0.7456, 0.7391 and stop-loss at 0.7580.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7600 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands) with the target at 0.7650. Pending buy orders can be placed above the level of 0.7665 with targets at 0.7700, 0.7770 and stop-loss at 0.7620.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
Due to the lack of macroeconomic drivers, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.1143-1.1187. Today is the Good Friday holiday in Europe, so market volatility is expected to remain low. Out of macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the data on US Gross Domestic Product Annualized and Personal Consumption Expenditures for the fourth quarter. Both indicators are expected to remain unchanged, GDP at 1% and Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.4%.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed down, suggesting the pair is likely to continue its downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are insignificant indicating low trading activity.
Support levels: 1.1143, 1.1093, 1.1056.
Resistance levels: 1.1187, 1.1222, 1.1259.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down and consolidates below the level of 1.1143 with the target at 1.1093 and stop-loss at 1.1163.
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.1187 with the target at 1.1222 and, possibly, 1.1259 and stop-loss at 1.1170.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: pair is falling

Current trend
Last week, the EUR/USD pair corrected down to new local lows from its six-week highs. The US currency was supported by Fed officials’ statements which has left a more positive impression than the results of the monetary policy meeting did. Moreover, further tightening of US monetary policy seems likelier amid recent macroeconomic publications.
In particular, strong data on US GDP for the fourth quarter was released on Friday. The indicator was revised up to 1.4% from 1.0%.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is trying to turn horizontally while the price range has outlined the borders of a possible sideways channel. MACD is still keeping its downward trend. Stochastic in the oversold zone and trying to turn up suggesting an upward correction is possible in the short term.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.1160, 1.1100, 1.1067 (near 16 March low), 1.1000, 1.0966, 1.0939.
Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1246, 1.1300, 1.1342 (17 March high), 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1459.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price turns up near the level of 1.1160 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.1300 and stop-loss at 1.1100. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened is the price breaks down the levels of 1.1150, 1.1100 with the target at 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.1200. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend
The GBP/USD pair strengthened by more than 100 points on Monday. The pair was supported by macroeconomic data, released in the US. In particular, the PCE price index for February was down to 0.1% from 0.3%, and the indicator of personal income declined from 0.5% to 0.2%. As a result, the pair reached the level of 1.4282 but did not manage to consolidate above it and corrected slightly down.
Out of macroeconomic statistics, which can have an impact on the pair, attention needs to be paid to data on Consumer Confidence and the Fed's Chair Janet Yellen Speech.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed up. At the same time, the price has broken out the upper border of the price range indicating a downward correction can start towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, to the level of 1.4162. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are growing.
Support levels: 1.4194, 1.4157, 1.4111, 1.4086.
Resistance levels: 1.4247, 1.4282, 1.4311, 1.4345.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 1.4282 with targets at 1.4311, 1.4345 and stop-loss at 1.4261.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.4194 with targets at 1.4157, 1.4111 and stop-loss at 1.4221.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/JPY: pair is growing

Current trend
Yesterday the pair strengthened amid Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech, in which she pointed out to the existence of substantial risks to world economy growth and the need to remain cautious with further monetary policy tightening in the US. Her comments significantly pressured the Dollar that allowed the Euro to strengthen.
In addition, the pair was supported by poor data from Japan. In February, the Unemployment Rate grew from 3.2% to 3.3%, while Retail Sales fell by 2.3%.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. However, the price remains above the upper border of the range. MACD is growing and giving a moderate buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 126.62 (local low), 126.16, 125.77 (24 March low), 125.00 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 124.22, 123.57, 123.05 (9 March low), 122.45.
Resistance levels: 127.30 (11 and 29 March highs), 128.17 (16 February high), 128.75, 129.13, 129.80 (10 February high), 130.26, 130.63.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 127.30 with targets at 128.75, 129.00 and stop-loss at 126.60. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 126.60 with the target at 125.00 and stop-loss at 127.50. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The demand for the European currency can largely be explained by uncertainty over future monetary policy in the US. At the press conference on 29 March, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted the Regulator plans to increase interest rates gradually due to risks to global economic stability. As a result, the US Dollar came under pressure. One of the key macroeconomic indicators has recently been released in the US. Nonfarm Payrolls for March came in at 215K, down from the previous 242K, while analysts expected a fall to 205K.

Support and resistance
RSI shows the pair is overbought and suggests a correction is possible.
The nearest support level is at 1.1364.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1492.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1364 with the target at 1.1500 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

 

[LiteForexNews]

GBP/USD: back to decline

Current trend
On Friday the GBP/USD pair was moving actively down amid the publication of statistics for March on US labour market. However, it should be noted that the data was quite mixed.

In particular, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 215K, lower than 245K in February but exceeding the forecast of 205K. Unemployment Rate was up by 0.1% and reached the key level of 5.0% while no changes were expected.
At the same time, ISM Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.5 to 51.8 points against the forecast of 50.7 points. ISM Prices Paid was up to 51.8 from 38.5 points.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart continues its flat dynamics. The price range shows almost no changes and remains wide enough for the current volatility. MACD is falling and keeping a moderate sell signal. Stochastic is moving down in the middle of the range.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4117, 1.4056 (24 March low), 1.4000 (strong psychological level near early march levels), 1.3914.
Resistance levels: 1.4241, 1.4300, 1.4350, 1.4394 (31 March level), 1.4435, 1.4461 (30 March high), 1.4513 (18 March high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price breaks out the level of 1.4300 with targets at 1.4435, 1.4461 and stop-loss at 1.4240. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 1.4200 with targets at 1.4100, 1.4056, 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.4250, 1.4260. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Macroeconomic statistics, released in the US last week, had no influence on the EUR/USD pair. However, it should be noted the Labor Force Participation Rate reached 63% which is the highest level since 2014.
Donald Trump, a candidate for US President, believes the US economy is far from recovery. He suggests the real unemployment rate is higher than the official 5%. Moreover, the stock market is growing while corporate profits are falling. If the situation continues to worsen, the Fed can delay its rate increase that will affect the US currency.

Support and resistance
The pair is trading in a sideways channel the lower border of which is at the level of 1.1335 and the upper is at 1.1412.
The nearest support level is at 1.1335.
The nearest resistance level is at 1.1412.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1412 with the target at 1.1545 and stop-loss at 1.1350.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: negative dynamics

Current trend
On Tuesday the AUD/USD pair closed with a decline to 29 March afternoon session lows. It should be noted trading activity was high due to numerous important macroeconomic releases.

In the morning session, the pair showed moderate growth after the results of the RBA monetary policy meeting were announced. Analysts’ expectations were confirmed, as the Regulator decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 2%.
However, macroeconomic statistics for February was a bit disappointing. Exports were down by 1% after a 1% growth in the previous month. Imports showed no changes compared with the previous decline of 1%. As a result, Australia’s trade deficit widened from 3156 AUD million to 3410 AUD million. Analysts expected the indicator to be up to -2600 AUD billion.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving sideways while the price range is widening from the bottom. MACD is falling and keeping a relatively strong sell signal. Stochastic is approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 0.7533, 0.7500 (28 April psychological level), 0.7476, 0.7426 (near 16 March low), 0.7400.
Resistance levels: 0.7567 (6 April morning session high), 0.7593, 0.7626, 0.7679 (17 March high), 0.7772 (31 March high), 0.7755, 0.7800.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out and consolidates above the level of 0.7593 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7679, 0.7722 and stop-loss at 0.7550. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened if the price breaks down the level of 0.7500 with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7533. Validity – 2-4 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: review and forecast

Current trend
Yesterday the US Dollar was losing its positions against the Canadian Dollar. Today attention needs to be paid to macroeconomic statistics from Canada and the US. Data on Building Permits for February is released in Canada at 2:30 pm (GMT+2). A high reading can strengthen the Canadian Dollar. A low reading, on the contrary, can weaken the national currency. Later on, market participant will be following data on Consumer Credit Change for February, due in the US at 9:00 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally. The price is moving between the middle and the lower MAs of the indicator.
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2910.
Resistance levels: 1.3060, 1.3110, 1.3130, 1.3470, 1.3300, 1.3370.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current levels with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3060.
As an alternative, place pending buy orders at the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.3060.