Tifia Daily Market Analytics

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WTI Oil: Current Trends and Recommendations
07/19/2019

Despite a report by the US Department of Energy, published last Wednesday and showing a decline in oil reserves in the country, oil prices dropped sharply. Oil reserves in the US declined last week by 3.1 million barrels to 455.9 million barrels. However, it is still about 4% above the average 5-year value for this time of year.
The data of the Ministry of Energy also showed an unexpected increase in gasoline reserves by 3.6 million barrels and an increase in distillate stocks by 5.7 million barrels, to 136.2 million barrels.
The growth of stocks of petroleum products, according to economists, is due to lower demand in the United States and a decline in exports.
On Thursday, WTI quotes fell to 54.72. In total, since the beginning of the week, the price of WTI crude oil has lost approximately 7.5% by now.
On Friday, oil prices rebounded slightly after a sharp fall the day before. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, WTI crude oil traded near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, due to the US-China trade conflict and due to the increase in the volume of shale oil production in the US, oil prices are likely to continue to decline.
On Friday, oil market participants will pay attention to the report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. Previous reports showed a decrease in the number of active oil platforms in the United States, to 784 units at the moment. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices. Publication of this report is scheduled for 17:00 (GMT).
The price of WTI crude oil has broken through key support levels of 58.80 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 56.80 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart) and continues to decline, trading on Friday near the mark of 56.00 dollars per barrel at the beginning of the European session.
Negative dynamics prevail, short positions are preferable.
Further decline will mean the return of oil prices into a bearish trend.
In the alternative scenario, the growth and price fixing in the zone above the resistance levels of 58.80, 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50%) will speak about the resumption of the bull trend. The signal for this will be the breakdown of short-term resistance levels of 57.65 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 58.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
Support levels: 55.40, 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Resistance Levels: 56.80, 57.65, 58.00, 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 55.30. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 54.10, 53.25, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15
Buy Stop 58.40. Stop-Loss 55.30. Take-Profit 58.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50