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Forex Analysis by LiteForex
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USD/JPY: pair is growing
Current trend
Today the pair strengthened amid mixed data from Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for October fell by 0.6% against the previous month, while was forecasted a fall of 0.4%, and by 3.8% against the previous year. At the same time, Machinery Orders for September grew by 7.5%, against forecasted 3.3%.
The pair is supported by the Bank of Japan decision to continue with easy monetary policy with the tendency of its further easing, and strong labour market data that came out last Friday in the US that significantly increased the chances of interest rates hike in the US in December.
Today attention needs to be pair to the ECB President Draghi speech, Fed’s Yellen speech and speeches by few other members of the Fed that could increase volatility on the market.
Support and resistance
On Friday the pair broke out strong resistance level at 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and continues growing towards 123.70 (23.6% correction), 124.50 (upper border of an ascending channel on the daily chart).
At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 122.50 would lead to a fall towards 121.50 (50% correction), 120.60 (61.8% correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions and turn to purchases on the 4-hour chart.
Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be paced at 123.20 with targets at the levels of 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.70 with targets at 122.50, 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 123.10.
Current trend
Today the pair strengthened amid mixed data from Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for October fell by 0.6% against the previous month, while was forecasted a fall of 0.4%, and by 3.8% against the previous year. At the same time, Machinery Orders for September grew by 7.5%, against forecasted 3.3%.
The pair is supported by the Bank of Japan decision to continue with easy monetary policy with the tendency of its further easing, and strong labour market data that came out last Friday in the US that significantly increased the chances of interest rates hike in the US in December.
Today attention needs to be pair to the ECB President Draghi speech, Fed’s Yellen speech and speeches by few other members of the Fed that could increase volatility on the market.
Support and resistance
On Friday the pair broke out strong resistance level at 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and continues growing towards 123.70 (23.6% correction), 124.50 (upper border of an ascending channel on the daily chart).
At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 122.50 would lead to a fall towards 121.50 (50% correction), 120.60 (61.8% correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions and turn to purchases on the 4-hour chart.
Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Pending buy orders can be paced at 123.20 with targets at the levels of 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.70 with targets at 122.50, 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 123.10.
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USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics
Current trend
Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Current trend
Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.
At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices declined, while Fed funds futures show a 72% chance of a rate increase in December against a 58% likelihood two weeks ago.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading in an upward channel with the upper border at the level of 129.00.
OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions, but on the weekly chart, they are giving buy signals.
The breakdown of 122.50 allows the pair to decline to the support levels of 122.00, 121.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and 50.0% Fibonacci). Otherwise, after the breakout of the resistance level of 123.70, the pair would strengthen to 125.00, 125.65 (year highs).
Support levels: 122.50, 122.00, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.70.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 122.40 with targets at 122.10, 121.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
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USD/CHF: pair overbought
Current trend
Switzerland’s export-oriented economy is under pressure amid a slowdown in the eurozone and China. Moreover, a strong national currency makes Swiss export less competitive.
Swiss inflation and retail sales growth have fallen to almost zero and industrial production has declined. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise its interest rates at December meeting. These factors will keep the Swiss franc from growing in the USD/CHF pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price is moving in an ascending channel between 1.0240 and 0.9800. Though the pair is overbought and is at its year highs, it still has a potential for growth.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions. Nevertheless, on the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is starting giving a sell signal. Thus, a correction is possible to the support levels of 1.0120 (EMA50 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0000 (the middle of the channel on the daily chart and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0240, 1.0300.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0170 with targets at 1.0120, 1.0090, 1.0010 and stop-loss at 1.0210.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0220 with targets at 1.0240, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0190.
Current trend
Switzerland’s export-oriented economy is under pressure amid a slowdown in the eurozone and China. Moreover, a strong national currency makes Swiss export less competitive.
Swiss inflation and retail sales growth have fallen to almost zero and industrial production has declined. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise its interest rates at December meeting. These factors will keep the Swiss franc from growing in the USD/CHF pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price is moving in an ascending channel between 1.0240 and 0.9800. Though the pair is overbought and is at its year highs, it still has a potential for growth.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions. Nevertheless, on the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is starting giving a sell signal. Thus, a correction is possible to the support levels of 1.0120 (EMA50 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0000 (the middle of the channel on the daily chart and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart).
Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0240, 1.0300.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0170 with targets at 1.0120, 1.0090, 1.0010 and stop-loss at 1.0210.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0220 with targets at 1.0240, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0190.
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XAU/USD: technical analysis
Current trend
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.
Current trend
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the price remains below its moving averages with periods 10, 20 and 50 that are directed down, which indicates a downward movement in the pair. MACD’s histogram is in the negative zone that also indicates a fall. ADX also suggest decline as the DI lines are heading down and ADX is falling.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading near the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, which is directed horizontally. The price remains below its MA10, MA20 and MA50, directed sideways. ADX turned down as it reached the level of 46.30, the DI lines are heading towards each other. MACD is at the zero line.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1065.85 (local low), 1064.63 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1075.27 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart), 1080.00, 1081.25 (this week high), 1087.99 (last week high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1066.67 and stop-loss at 1075.27.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.50 with the target at 1087.00 and stop-loss at 1072.70.
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XAU/USD: pair resumed fall
Current trend
After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.
Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.
Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability of an interest rate increase in December.
Support and resistance
The pair is falling along a channel on the daily chart with the lower border below the level of 1050.00, and is heading towards 965.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
At the same time, an upward correction is possible to the levels of 1085.00, 1095.00 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 1105.00 (the middle line of the upward channel) could send the price towards 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On all charts from the 4-hour to monthly, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a fall continuation.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1064.00 with targets at 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1078.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Current trend
After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.
Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.
Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability of an interest rate increase in December.
Support and resistance
The pair is falling along a channel on the daily chart with the lower border below the level of 1050.00, and is heading towards 965.00 (ЕМА200 on the monthly chart).
At the same time, an upward correction is possible to the levels of 1085.00, 1095.00 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), while a breakout of the level of 1105.00 (the middle line of the upward channel) could send the price towards 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction, ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On all charts from the 4-hour to monthly, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a fall continuation.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1064.00 with targets at 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1078.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
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AUD/USD: pair under pressure
Current trend
Today the AUD/USD pair is falling.
The pair is pressured by investors expectations of an interest rates increase in the US at the December Fed’ meeting and further monetary policy easing in Australia. In addition, Australian economic problems may get worse. The unemployment rate could increase as companies in the mining industry continue cutting investments, while commodities prices keep falling amid slowing Chinese economy.
Thus, until 1 December when the RBA Interest Rate Decision is due the pair will remain under pressure. If interest rate are increased then, the fall in the pair will accelerate.
Support and resistance
Since the beginning of the month, the pair remains in an ascending correctional channel on the 4-hour chart.
However, a breakdown of the support levels at 0.7200 (ЕМА50), 0.7170 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, lower border of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) would return the price in a downward channel on the daily chart and sends the pair to 0.7030 (November lows), 0.6950, 0.6910 (year lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7190.
Current trend
Today the AUD/USD pair is falling.
The pair is pressured by investors expectations of an interest rates increase in the US at the December Fed’ meeting and further monetary policy easing in Australia. In addition, Australian economic problems may get worse. The unemployment rate could increase as companies in the mining industry continue cutting investments, while commodities prices keep falling amid slowing Chinese economy.
Thus, until 1 December when the RBA Interest Rate Decision is due the pair will remain under pressure. If interest rate are increased then, the fall in the pair will accelerate.
Support and resistance
Since the beginning of the month, the pair remains in an ascending correctional channel on the 4-hour chart.
However, a breakdown of the support levels at 0.7200 (ЕМА50), 0.7170 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144, lower border of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, ЕМА50 on the daily chart) would return the price in a downward channel on the daily chart and sends the pair to 0.7030 (November lows), 0.6950, 0.6910 (year lows).
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7325, 0.7370, 0.7500.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7240 with targets at 0.7290, 0.7300, 0.7370 and stop-loss at 0.7190.
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XAG/USD: pair in flat
Current trend
Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.
However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.
Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for November that is due on Friday and which is going to play a key role for the decision on interest rates at Fed’s December meeting.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a channel with the lower border below the level of 13.85.
Prior to the publication of important data the price will stabilise near the level of 14.00 (year lows). An upwards correction towards the level of 14.60 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. However, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 would accelerate the fall.
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.35, 14.60, 14.80, 15.30.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.50 and stop-loss at 14.35.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 14.60 with targets at 15.30, 15.50.
Current trend
Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.
However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.
Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for November that is due on Friday and which is going to play a key role for the decision on interest rates at Fed’s December meeting.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a channel with the lower border below the level of 13.85.
Prior to the publication of important data the price will stabilise near the level of 14.00 (year lows). An upwards correction towards the level of 14.60 (ЕМА144, ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) is possible. However, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 would accelerate the fall.
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.35, 14.60, 14.80, 15.30.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 14.00, 13.80, 13.50 and stop-loss at 14.35.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 14.60 with targets at 15.30, 15.50.
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EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, the European currency strengthened slightly against the US Dollar, which was under pressure from US statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI. In November, the indicator declined from 50.1 to 48.6 points, while analysts forecasted a growth to 50.4 points.
November Data on Consumer Price Index is due today in the EU. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.2%. Even if the forecast is confirmed, a possible growth in the EUR will be limited as ECB is expected to continue easing its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting.
Later on, Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen gives her speech. Market participants might get more confirming evidence that the Regulator will raise its interest rates before the year is out. The futures market is pricing in up to a 75.2% probability of a hike at the December meeting.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD indicator recommends long positions. Stochastic is giving a sell signal – the indicator has left the overbought zone; the %K line has crossed the %D line from top-to-bottom.
A likelier scenario seems to be continuation of downward movement within a descending channel.
The nearest support levels are 1.0555, 1.0500.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.0688, 1.0762, 1.0820.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the level of 1.0640 with the target at 1.0685 and stop-loss at 1.0630.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0590 with targets at 1.0555, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0600.
Current trend
Yesterday, the European currency strengthened slightly against the US Dollar, which was under pressure from US statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI. In November, the indicator declined from 50.1 to 48.6 points, while analysts forecasted a growth to 50.4 points.
November Data on Consumer Price Index is due today in the EU. The indicator is expected to come in at 0.2%. Even if the forecast is confirmed, a possible growth in the EUR will be limited as ECB is expected to continue easing its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting.
Later on, Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen gives her speech. Market participants might get more confirming evidence that the Regulator will raise its interest rates before the year is out. The futures market is pricing in up to a 75.2% probability of a hike at the December meeting.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MACD indicator recommends long positions. Stochastic is giving a sell signal – the indicator has left the overbought zone; the %K line has crossed the %D line from top-to-bottom.
A likelier scenario seems to be continuation of downward movement within a descending channel.
The nearest support levels are 1.0555, 1.0500.
The nearest resistance levels are 1.0688, 1.0762, 1.0820.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price breaks out the level of 1.0640 with the target at 1.0685 and stop-loss at 1.0630.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0590 with targets at 1.0555, 1.0500 and stop-loss at 1.0600.
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XAU/USD: price of gold declines
Current trend
Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.
Support and resistance
Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.
Current trend
Since the opening of the trading day, the prices of gold and other precious metals are declining amid the strengthening in the US Dollar.
The correlation between the price of gold and the EUR/USD pair is nearly 92%. The EUR is under strong pressure ahead of ECB interest rate decision, therefore, a decline in the price of gold is likely to continue.
Demand for the USD, on the contrary, continues growing due to expectations of a hike in US interest rates. At present, gold does not seem to be a profitable investment as borrowing costs of buying and storing it tend to increase.
Support and resistance
Though on the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, they are giving sell signals on the 4-hour and weekly charts.
Short positions are preferable. A growth to 1138.00 (38.2% Fibonacci correction and EMA144) seems possible if the price consolidates above the levels of 1085.00 and 1095.00.
Support levels: 1065.00, 1060.00, 1057.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1076.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1095.00, 1105.00 and stop-loss at 1073.00.
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USD/CHF: safe-haven currency
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 points.
The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMI’s in the US.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the USD/CHF pair was declining.
The pair was falling despite the publication of poor data in Switzerland that came out significantly worse than forecasts and strong statistics on the US labour market. The Swiss GDP in the third quarter failed to show any growth, Real Retail Sales shrank by 0.8%, while the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 points.
The main pressure on the pair resulted from increased cautiousness on the market prior to the publication of key statistics in the US that pushed investors to switch their funds into the safe-haven Franc.
Today attention needs to be paid to the ECB Press conference and its Interest Rate Decision, Fed’s Yellen testifies, FOMC Member Mester speech, and Markit and ISM PMI’s in the US.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving along an ascending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.0185 and upper border above the level of 1.0340.
A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0180, 1.0130. At the same time, a growth in the pair can go up to the level of 1.0600 (ЕМА144 on the monthly chart).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they are turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1.0230, 1.0185, 1.0130, 1.0000, 0.9880, 0.9800.
Resistance levels: 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0180 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0080, 1.0000 and stop-loss at 1.0220.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0240 with targets at 1.0300, 1.0340, 1.0400, 1.0600 and stop-loss at 1.0190.
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AUD/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australia’s trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.
Current trend
The AUD/USD pair is strengthening, though, according to macroeconomic statistics, Australia’s trade balance deficit grew to 3.305 billion.
The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a fall in iron ore prices and uncertainty about China’s economic outlook.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI statistics. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 59.1 to 58.0 points that might affect the US Dollar.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the MA50, MA100 and MA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, while ADX indicates downward movement.
Today, the price is expected to trade within the range of 0.7330-0.7287.
Support levels: 0.7287, 0.7261 (MA50).
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7342 (local high), 0.7360, 0.7400.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 0.7330 with the target at 0.7360 and stop-loss at 0.7315.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.7287 with the target at 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7300.
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Brent: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iran’s plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of today’s 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.
Current trend
Yesterday the price of Brent crude oil significantly corrected due to a Dollar decline and prior to the OPEC meeting, which is due today.
According to the majority of experts, OPEC is not going to reduce quotes despite some speculation that Saudi Arabia can reduce its output. Contrary to that, there is a possibility that quotes will be increased due to Indonesia joining the cartel and Iran’s plans to increase output after sanctions are lifted. Therefore, total output could increase to 31 million barrels instead of today’s 30 million barrels a day. In this case, the price of oil might decline below year lows near the level of 42.46.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 42.46 (yesterday low).
The nearest resistance level is at 44.66 (yesterday high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 42.46 and stop-loss at 44.66.
If OPEC decides to reduce quotes at the meeting today, open long positons with the target at 46.44 and stop-loss at 44.00.
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AUD/USD: Australia Dollar managed to strengthen
Current trend
On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair hit its new highs of the week. However, it should be noted that the pair strengthened in the second half of the day, while during the Asian session, the Australian currency was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics for October.
Australia's exports fell by 3% after a 3% growth in September. Imports were down to 0% from previous 2%. As a result, trade balance deficit surged from 2403 to 3305 billion.
Later on, the pair managed to strengthen amid the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech. She confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, but the Regulator will have to consider the real economic indicators.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing moderately, while the price range is narrowing down at the bottom. MACD is keeping its upward dynamics, though growth of the histogram is slowing down. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
According to the indicators, a downward correction might form in the short term.
Support levels: 0.7330, 0.7275, 0.7234, 0.7200, 0.7183, 0.7158 (23 November low).
Resistance levels: 0.7363 (3 December high), 0.7381 (12 December high), 0.7400 (mid-August level).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from the level of 0.7300 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7260. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions look more preferable and can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7300 with targets at 0.7200, 0.7180 and stop-loss at 0.7350. Validity – 2-3 days.
Current trend
On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair hit its new highs of the week. However, it should be noted that the pair strengthened in the second half of the day, while during the Asian session, the Australian currency was under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics for October.
Australia's exports fell by 3% after a 3% growth in September. Imports were down to 0% from previous 2%. As a result, trade balance deficit surged from 2403 to 3305 billion.
Later on, the pair managed to strengthen amid the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speech. She confirmed the possibility of an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, but the Regulator will have to consider the real economic indicators.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is growing moderately, while the price range is narrowing down at the bottom. MACD is keeping its upward dynamics, though growth of the histogram is slowing down. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and trying to turn down.
According to the indicators, a downward correction might form in the short term.
Support levels: 0.7330, 0.7275, 0.7234, 0.7200, 0.7183, 0.7158 (23 November low).
Resistance levels: 0.7363 (3 December high), 0.7381 (12 December high), 0.7400 (mid-August level).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened if the price rebounds from the level of 0.7300 (with appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7400 and stop-loss at 0.7260. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions look more preferable and can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7300 with targets at 0.7200, 0.7180 and stop-loss at 0.7350. Validity – 2-3 days.
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EUR/USD: NFPR had little effect
Current trend
Despite strong Friday’s data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, the Dollar could not recover losses of Thursday.
Nonetheless, November NFPR suggest a steady recovery of the US labour market. The figure came out stronger than was predicted by economists at 211 thousands new jobs, while October figure was revised up from 271 to 298 thousands new jobs. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings in November increased by 0.2%.
Considering strong recent data from the US, the probability of an interest rate hike in December significantly increases that could lead to the USD strengthening.
Support and resistance
For the downward trend to resume the price should consolidate below the support levels at 1.0820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, May and July lows), 1.0760 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart).
At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0890 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) could allow an upward correction towards the level of 1.1050 (ЕМА144, upper border of a descending channel on the daily chart) to continue.
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to sales.
Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0560, 1.0500.
Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.0845 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0890.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0910 with targets at 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1090 and stop-loss at 1.0880.
Current trend
Despite strong Friday’s data on the Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, the Dollar could not recover losses of Thursday.
Nonetheless, November NFPR suggest a steady recovery of the US labour market. The figure came out stronger than was predicted by economists at 211 thousands new jobs, while October figure was revised up from 271 to 298 thousands new jobs. In addition, Average Hourly Earnings in November increased by 0.2%.
Considering strong recent data from the US, the probability of an interest rate hike in December significantly increases that could lead to the USD strengthening.
Support and resistance
For the downward trend to resume the price should consolidate below the support levels at 1.0820 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart, May and July lows), 1.0760 (ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart).
At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0890 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart) could allow an upward correction towards the level of 1.1050 (ЕМА144, upper border of a descending channel on the daily chart) to continue.
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic suggest a growth continuation, while on the 4-hour chart the indicators are turning to sales.
Support levels: 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0700, 1.0600, 1.0560, 1.0500.
Resistance levels: 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1180, 1.1285.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1.0845 with targets at 1.0820, 1.0760, 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0890.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.0910 with targets at 1.0940, 1.1050, 1.1090 and stop-loss at 1.0880.
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GBP/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
The nearest resistance level is at*1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000*and stop-loss at 1.5080.
Current trend
Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
The nearest resistance level is at*1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000*and stop-loss at 1.5080.
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XAU/USD: pair in correction
Current trend
The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and gradual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
Thus in the medium term amid gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.
Support and resistance
After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
Current trend
The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and gradual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
Thus in the medium term amid gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.
Support and resistance
After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
