Fiscal Cliff

Vicorka

Active member
246 7
Every media talks about "Fiscal Cliff" by scarring everybody with a recession.

What do you think

1. Will anything be done before a deadline?

2. What should we expect from the market (S&P 500) before decision is made?

3. What should we expect from the market (S&P 500) after decision is made?

4. Will we have recession?

My opinion:

1. Political games will be played to the last moment.

2. I would expect increase in volatility. S&P may drop deeper, yet not too much to call it a recession.

3. I do not know.

4. Not so fast. A recession does not starts overnight. If you take a look at 2008 crash you will see the market (S&P 500) was in volatile bouncing at the top entire 2007. In January 2008 we had "Freddy & M." trouble. It took another 8 months for everybody to start talking about the recession. If you take a look at 2000 recession and other recessions you will see pre-recession period of volatile trading as well. So, not so fast...
 

Vasco da Banana

Established member
699 121
I've been expecting another big fall for months. Maybe it'll happen now the Americans have got the election out of the way and are starting to open their eyes again to the 'recovery'.
 
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member275544

0 0
Every media talks about "Fiscal Cliff" by scarring everybody with a recession.

What do you think

1. Will anything be done before a deadline?

2. What should we expect from the market (S&P 500) before decision is made?

3. What should we expect from the market (S&P 500) after decision is made?

4. Will we have recession?

My opinion:

1. Political games will be played to the last moment.

2. I would expect increase in volatility. S&P may drop deeper, yet not too much to call it a recession.

3. I do not know.

4. Not so fast. A recession does not starts overnight. If you take a look at 2008 crash you will see the market (S&P 500) was in volatile bouncing at the top entire 2007. In January 2008 we had "Freddy & M." trouble. It took another 8 months for everybody to start talking about the recession. If you take a look at 2000 recession and other recessions you will see pre-recession period of volatile trading as well. So, not so fast...

Im not sure I understand what your questions are..what decision are you expecting, and if these decisions need to be made why weren't they made in the previous 47 recessions the states have been in...(I guess you're talking about the states) If it was such a decision that needed to be made, you mean they could have averted those recessions and depressions?
 
 
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