Best Thread Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment

[dbphoenix]

I asked that you do it in real time because you didn't want to use historical charts. What charts you use to define the setup are immaterial.

 

[firewalker99]

I asked that you do it in real time because you didn't want to use historical charts. What charts you use to define the setup are immaterial.

I'm not interested in discussing what I did or did not say, but I don't recall me at anytime refusing to take a look at historical charts. Anyhow, I'd like to continue learning something, so what do you propose then? That I look at a certain number of charts from the past couple of weeks and months and read them from left to right and put up similar analysis of these from the past couple of days or...?

 

[dbphoenix]

That depends on the resources you have available. The last time this was addressed, you were relying on your broker for charts, your broker did not provide historical charts, and you had no charting software. If all of that has changed and you now have access to historical charts, then go back to wherever you want to begin and examine them in sequence in order to define a tentative setup.

 

[firewalker99]

That depends on the resources you have available. The last time this was addressed, you were relying on your broker for charts, your broker did not provide historical charts, and you had no charting software. If all of that has changed and you now have access to historical charts, then go back to wherever you want to begin and examine them in sequence in order to define a tentative setup.

I've got a couple of hundred intraday charts from the beginning of 2006 uptil today. Of course I can go back further, but I don't see the point for now. So what is it you advice me to do? Appy the same procedure as I've been doing to real time charts to these (reading from left to right)? Then I'll post each analysis and start counting from zero again here for another 20 days?

 

[dbphoenix]

You don't need to post any analyses since you haven't yet finished defining your setup. You can use the charts you have for that. Once you've defined it, you'll need some sort of charting software -- preferably with replay -- in order to test it.

 

[firewalker99]

You don't need to post any analyses since you haven't yet finished defining your setup. You can use the charts you have for that. Once you've defined it, you'll need some sort of charting software -- preferably with replay -- in order to test it.

I don't need to post anything anymore?
Ehm... I don't understand anymore. Why:
1) did you made me start a journal in the first place
2) did you gave me those exercises (that were out to prove the newbies didn't want to work)
3) make me restart the journal all over with full detailed analysis of every trade, including what I thought, felt, did

Am I any further now than a month before, when I joined t2w? Any further than 6 months ago? than a year ago when I studied, read books,... Any further than the hours, days and weeks I've looked at charts in real-time?

I finally was getting some hopes of getting out of this circle.

 

[dbphoenix]

I didn't say you needn't post anything anymore. And as for "making" you start the journal, you began the journal on your own.

As for "making" you restart, that's something you're going to have to do every time you change your setup. If you don't want to restart, then don't ever change your setup.

As for whether or not you're any further along now than you were six months ago, I can't say. If you learned nothing from the S/R thread exercise about the process of defining and testing a setup and if you've learned nothing about the process of defining and testing a setup from the premarket planning, real-time trading, and post-market analysis, then you're under no obligation to anyone but yourself to continue doing it.

 

[firewalker99]

I didn't say you needn't post anything anymore. And as for "making" you start the journal, you began the journal on your own.

As for "making" you restart, that's something you're going to have to do every time you change your setup. If you don't want to restart, then don't ever change your setup.

As for whether or not you're any further along now than you were six months ago, I can't say. If you learned nothing from the S/R thread exercise about the process of defining and testing a setup and if you've learned nothing about the process of defining and testing a setup from the premarket planning, real-time trading, and post-market analysis, then you're under no obligation to anyone but yourself to continue doing it.

I started the journal because you convinced me that it would help me develop a consistently profitable strategy. I can't imagine anyone restarting from scratch when he changes one parameter slightly. Ok, he has to test it over again and see what the results hold, but that's quite different from what you're asking me to do now.

You've offered me a lot of questions to wander and think about. You've said I had to find the answers within myself and I've tried and am still trying. But it's getting pretty frustrating to start over time after time, without any sight of progress. The thing I've learned is that nobody's going to give away too much, and I'll have to do the work by myself. But that's what I've been doing.

The problem with the pre-market planning is that it holds as many successes as failures. Today and especially yesterday for example, finding S/R real time has been mighty difficult. I guess yesterday was a range throughout the day. But I have no ideas on how to adjust my system to be able to trade on those days. Ok then don't trade you'll react. Fine, skip the day. But I don't know in advance which day it's going to be. Furthermore, without any definite S/R I'll be guessing for an entry all the time. Perhaps I should practice some more on finding it in real-time. On the charts of your S/R thread however, they seem more obvious. Perhaps you could put up some charts without a clear trend and give some clues about how to analyse price in that context, and I don't mean telling me "here you can enter, exit,...", but a means to help understand the way price moves. Or a real-time analysis, like the one FX_Cowboy and myself gave a shot at. Or I invite you to draw some useful lines on the charts attached. All of these have me particularly confused.

 

[dbphoenix]

I assume you started the journal for the reasons you gave in your first post.

As for "the problem with pre-market planning is that it holds as many successes as failures", the problem is not the planning but the setup, unless of course you're trading a setup with a 50:50 probability of success. Or perhaps your setup is not defined to the extent that you know in real time whether you have a trade or not. If it is sufficiently defined and there is no trade but you want a trade, then you have to refine or re-define the setup so that it provides you with one. There are no shortcuts. Every professional trader has had to go through this.

And, no, you don't know in advance what sort of day it's going to be. That's the nature of trading.

As for the posted S/R charts, I began posting them in real time on a Monday. I had no idea how the day was going to turn out. Same with Tuesday. And so on. Posting yet another hindsight chart accomplishes nothing but to return to the beginning of the circle where everyone complains about hindsight analysis and how "easy" it is. If S/R remains a mystery to you, trade something else. Find a pre-defined pattern to trade. Trade some sort of indicator setup. Trade whatever makes sense to you. But whatever you decide to trade, the process remains the same: you have to decide just what it is you're looking for, find it, then trade it. If you can't trade it successfully, then you have to look for something else.

If you're determined to trade by S/R and you have access to historical charts, then select one of those charts and apply the most recent version of your setup to it. If you can find the setup in the chart, then determine whether it is successful or not. Then do another one. Then another. Then another. If the setup needs changing, then change it. Then begin again. No one can do this for you.

 

[firewalker99]

...[post 445]...

The problem is that my setup is based on a S/R level. I have to depart from that. This can be a S/R level from intermediate or long term, as I've done in the beginning but this leaves few trades. So to increase the number of profitable trades I tried to establish intraday S/R short term levels and tried to see if there were any trades on these. In the chart I posted a couple of days ago, you've drawn to S/R lines which could have been helpful and led to possible successful trades. That wasn't hindsight analysis, so why is it now when I'm asking to help me find S/R on the charts attached? And if it was hindsight, well in that case I wasn't complaining any way.

I don't see the point in going into another direction (indicators, Fibonacci,...) when I've already spent so much time on this subject, reading, studying, analyzing, looking, observing, questioning,... I thought I was building something here, not deconstructing everything time after time again. So for applying my setup to historical charts, yes I've done that and some days I had luck, others I didn't. Most of the time because S/R was drawn incorrectly or there wasn't any S/R at that particular price level and I was mistaken.

So go back to practising S/R? Ok, but when I've done that, and posted several charts in your S/R thread I recall you saying I "seem to have a pretty good handle of this" and others also sounded similarly positive about my "observe but not predict" analyses in the likes of the ones you put up yourself in the beginning. . So no S/R isn't a mystery to me, as this obviously is argument to the contrary. This time I can only conclude that the problem is not within finding S/R, let alone within me, it is finding something to hold on, in particular days like yesterday. Without S/R I feel completely in the dark. Take an indicator, pivot point, ADR? Perhaps, but what if that's not what I want to do?

I've searched in the threads, but wherever I find S/R analysis, the chart examples always seem to trend nicely or show pretty clean moves. Why not help me, and others, detect S/R in more difficult circumstances (like a ranging day) or offer some hints on an approach of the days where S/R isn't so easy to detect? I've seen no responses to the problems with these kind of days. Most of the time I read answers "skip the day", "look at another instrument", but that's the easy way out. I've posted several charts in the Daily Dax thread that have no obvious price movement. I would gladly welcome anything than can be helpful on this chart: a trend line, a MA, a S/R ... so please... enlight me....

 

[firewalker99]

problem with S/R

Perhaps we can post this in the S/R thread, but I just looked up some NQ charts.
Seems to be more clear moves than the DAX, but perhaps that's because the NQ is only open 7 hours and DAX 14... anyway... as you don't know the instrument perhaps you don't know the S/R levels of intermediate/long term... so I checked two NQ charts that seemed to trend less than others. Any from left-to-right analysis of S/R on these charts would surely teach me something.
Althought I can find a R on one of the chart around 1483.75 I didn't find charts as crappy as those from DAX that I posted before.

This isn't about testing my setup. The setup has been defined and I can test it. If, and only if, I am able to find S/R in realtime. So I invite anybody to help me get over this wall. If there isn't any S/R to be found, ok fine, then say so. If there is, tell me where and why it's situated on that price level. If there is a step-by-step guide to defining support/resistance, than feel free to correspond it. I've been putting up charts in this journal from the beginning and it always seemed easy in the days where there is a trend that can be distinguished or at least a clear move.

 

[dbphoenix]

1. Your setup may be based on S/R, but that doesn't mean that you have to plot it yourself. You can use the Darvas Box or any similar pre-defined setup. If you're primarily concerned with retracements, then look at the Ross Hook or some similar setup that is pre-defined.

2. The suggestion I made regarding drawing S/R intraday in real time was no more than that: a suggestion. I wasn't offering to plot S/R for you in any additional charts. Nor was I offering any analysis. If you're not yet ready to pick up the ball and run with it, then just let it lie there until you are ready.

3. If you insist on continuing to work with something that hasn't been successful for you, then no one can stop you. But you can hardly expect someone to plot S/R for you any more than you can expect someone to cut your meat. If you want charts that have pre-plotted S/R, Dan has posted dozens. Read his journal. Read wasp's.

4. If you can't locate S/R, then perhaps there isn't any. If trading whatever S/R you think there is turns out to be difficult, then, yes, skip it. To dismiss this advice as an easy way out is naive at best. If there's no price movement, then, yes, leave it alone.

I repeat, if you insist on creating your own strategy, then apply your setup to historical charts. If it works, fine. If it doesn't, modify it and try again. Do this over and over again until you have something you can trade with confidence. No one can do this for you. You have to do it yourself. If you refuse to do it, then don't expect to break out of the circle in which you find yourself.

 

[firewalker99]

1. Your setup may be based on S/R, but that doesn't mean that you have to plot it yourself. You can use the Darvas Box or any similar pre-defined setup. If you're primarily concerned with retracements, then look at the Ross Hook or some similar setup that is pre-defined.

As I've been plotting it myself all along the way, and you've said I "seem" to have a good handle on this, I see no reason to change it. Nevertheless it needs improvement and especially in certain circumstances where I'm unable to clearly detect it I could really benefit from a practical example, I really don't understand the problem in putting up some charts as you've put up dozens in the S/R thread. Unfortunately none of them have a ranging price movement... As for Darvas, Ross or any other setup, it seems each time I get a step closer in figuring this out you've diverting me to these systems so let me repeat I have no interested in these, otherwise I wouldn't taken the time to post in the PV, S/R and other threads that deal with this matter.

2. The suggestion I made regarding drawing S/R intraday in real time was no more than that: a suggestion. I wasn't offering to plot S/R for you in any additional charts. Nor was I offering any analysis. If you're not yet ready to pick up the ball and run with it, then just let it lie there until you are ready.

It was a good suggestion, as it offered more trades. It also seemed plausible on that particular chart, where the principle or reciprocity happened to work nicely. If you're not willing to take the time to plot S/R in two charts, than I honestly need to frown. I can understand you don't have the time, but considering the time you've already taken to guide me in this journal, I don't see what the two minutes difference would make. And even so, a couple of days before you were willing to do it without me even asking. Now it's me again not picking up the ball but this is a straight question which surely is an easy task for you. Sorry if the task is perhaps to trivial for you to execute, but of all the things I've ever asked this is one where I could really see an example. And this is not about me not willing to do the work, I'm doing everything that needs to be done in order to get me understand it better. If a math teacher wasn't willing to explain an exercise which is more difficult than the other ones, than I'd seriously doubt his reasons.

3. If you insist on continuing to work with something that hasn't been successful for you, then no one can stop you. But you can hardly expect someone to plot S/R for you any more than you can expect someone to cut your meat. If you want charts that have pre-plotted S/R, Dan has posted dozens. Read his journal. Read wasp's.

Indeed Dan has. Indeed wasp has. Indeed others have. Unfortunately all those examples show moves where I would have been able to draw S/R lines also. I even responded to Dan or wasp in those occasions. Now what I don't seem to find, is a chart where there's no S/R visible and someone observing or analyzing what they see in it. If nothing, than fine. Just let me know. It's basically a very simple question.

4. If you can't locate S/R, then perhaps there isn't any. If trading whatever S/R you think there is turns out to be difficult, then, yes, skip it. To dismiss this advice as an easy way out is naive at best. If there's no price movement, then, yes, leave it alone.

Exactly, if I can't locate S/R, then perhaps there isn't any. Now to help me clear up my mind, it would be most useful if you - or anybody else although I hope I won't be begging - to just let me know if there is or isn't any S/R on the charts I put up. And if there is, then draw a simple line on it and tell me that there is and I should have seen or find it this or that way. What I see in all the examples, is how it's done in nearly perfect situations. All the books, study guides, your posts, never show what to do in those less-perfect situations. But unfortunately, those are the reality.

I repeat, if you insist on creating your own strategy, then apply your setup to historical charts. If it works, fine. If it doesn't, modify it and try again. Do this over and over again until you have something you can trade with confidence. No one can do this for you. You have to do it yourself. If you refuse to do it, then don't expect to break out of the circle in which you find yourself.

I insist? Of course, you told me that without creating my own strategy, I would never have te belief or confidence I could have when relying on somebody else's system. But anyway, I'm willing to create my own so that's not the issue here. And I'm willing to put in the time. And I'm willing to backtest and forward test dozens of charts. And I'm willing to do it myself. But if I can't have a helping hand from time to time just to shed a little light on a difficult subject, than perhaps I am - after all - alone.

 

[dbphoenix]

And this is not about me not willing to do the work, I'm doing everything that needs to be done in order to get me understand it better.

Unfortunately, no, you're not.

If you're not willing to take the time to plot S/R in two charts, than I honestly need to frown.

I posted four days' worth of S/R in real-time charts, so I guess you'll have to frown. But if someone else is willing to provide hindsight analysis, they are welcome to do so.

I'm willing to create my own so that's not the issue here. And I'm willing to put in the time. And I'm willing to backtest and forward test dozens of charts. And I'm willing to do it myself.

When?

 

[firewalker99]

[...post 450 and any of your posts before...]

For the record, I'm not going to reply to posts where you pick out some sentences that seem to come in handy for you to comment on. Where I on the other hand completely answered every point of your post, with arguments, with facts, even after the demoralizing posts. If you're not willing to analyze even one - one single simple - chart from DAX, or even NQ which I even put up myself, I can only conclude you must have
1) a very specific knowledge you're not willing or able to share
2) a very specific lack of knowledge which you're tyring to hide by any means
3) a very unsympathic way of telling me to shut up
4) an ego that stands in the way of helping a poor soul looking for guidance
5) a combination of the above

I'll let others find out for themselves. I'm sure some of the viewers have already made their conclusions.

 

[dbphoenix]

You have yet to make a commitment to doing the backtesting you continue to insist that you're willing to do. If you elect instead to shift the responsibility onto someone else, that fortunately is not my problem.

Happy trading.

 

[firewalker99]

You have yet to make a commitment to doing the backtesting you continue to insist that you're willing to do. If you elect instead to shift the responsibility onto someone else, that fortunately is not my problem.

Happy trading.

Every time I took up the gloves (like last week), reinvigorated with whatever courage I had left, the only thing I've read was that I need to do it different, I did it wrong, I needed to start over. But when I asked for help on tweaking the setup so that I could continue before I was interrupted, I'm left with a big "I never offered to help you anyway".

In hindsight, that actually is the first thing that makes sense.

 

[firewalker99]

waiting for the NFP?

I'll let the chart speak for itself.

 

[BroadSword]

Hi Firewalker,

I've read all of your journal over the last few days.. Can I say a couple of things?

1. Your determination is admirable, though your willingness to go through all this discomfort semi-publically is more so...I can sense your frustation...You are to be congratulated for that.

2. I could be very wrong, but I think your reaction to the manner in which db has helped you has ranged from considerable gratitude that someone should invest so much effort in helping you (which in terms of work, he indisputably has, in my opinion), to frustration that you have not progressed faster, or that he has not just told you straight off 'what to do.' It is my opinion that the main reason for this (if indeed it does apply and I've read the situation correctly) is that even if he were to explain bit by bit how he trades, it wouldn't help you, necessarily because you wouldn't have psychological ownership of what was happening. He was attempting, I believe, to give a little guidance towards your own discovery of trading, which (again in my opinion) is the only way to do it.

I don't think he was teasing you or being difficult, I think he was offering help in the only workable way that anyone can, with the emphasis of responsibilty and effort firmly on your shoulders.

I hope this causes no offence to you, but it is how I read the situation after having read it all of it in a fairly compressed manner.

Best wishes,

 

[firewalker99]

Hi Firewalker,

I've read all of your journal over the last few days.. Can I say a couple of things?

1. Your determination is admirable, though your willingness to go through all this discomfort semi-publically is more so...I can sense your frustration...You are to be congratulated for that.

2. I could be very wrong, but I think your reaction to the manner in which db has helped you has ranged from considerable gratitude that someone should invest so much effort in helping you (which in terms of work, he indisputably has, in my opinion), to frustration that you have not progressed faster, or that he has not just told you straight off 'what to do.' It is my opinion that the main reason for this (if indeed it does apply and I've read the situation correctly) is that even if he were to explain bit by bit how he trades, it wouldn't help you, necessarily because you wouldn't have psychological ownership of what was happening. He was attempting, I believe, to give a little guidance towards your own discovery of trading, which (again in my opinion) is the only way to do it.

I don't think he was teasing you or being difficult, I think he was offering help in the only workable way that anyone can, with the emphasis of responsibility and effort firmly on your shoulders.

I hope this causes no offence to you, but it is how I read the situation after having read it all of it in a fairly compressed manner.

Best wishes,

BroadSword, any opinion is appreciated and no I'm not offended. I don't judge people for having an opinion if they feel they have sufficient arguments to sustain that one. Now, about your first point: I don't think there all a lot of people on this forum willing to publicly go through the kind of "treatment" - if I can call it that - I've been through. I've shown all my weaknesses, lack of this or that, my ego surely would not have benefit of it - if I had one. My goal of learning how to trade sets aside any personal feelings I might have, although at one time one most start to wonder why.

As for your second point, I'm sure there are members of this forum who feel that I've been deaf or unwilling to listen. But as far as a critical mind goes, it pays to question what you've been thought and only with understanding the true reasons behind I can start to comprend why I need to go through these phases or stages. I've taken a eager approach on every task I've been given, almost with as much eagerness as a young child who gets a new toy. But I'm sure you understand the child will be pretty uncomfortable and lacking understanding if the parent decides to take away the toy because he declares it's a useless thing of plastic (I probably shouldn't compare myself to a child...).

You were probably right that I expected too much in the beginning, I wanted to see something real in front of me, instead of find it for myself. I was wrong. I took another approach and defined (or tried to define) something from within me. Although I must say in the very beginning I posted three complete setups that immediately sparked the reaction "if I were to be trading that, I'd be banging my head against the wall". Ok fine, I needed to be told in a blunt way where I stood at that point. So I scratched some layers off, took another start. But what you fail to acknowledge is that each time with each restart, questions arose. Questions that an experienced trader who was willing and able to help, should at least tried to answer instead of tell me to look for the answers within me. I'm not going to look prettier looking into the mirror longer.

The thing that frustrated me more than anything else, more than my inability to make progress any faster, was the blatant refusal to give me some simple answers to appropriate ad-hoc questions. Turning the question around is perhaps a technique common amongst psychologists, but if I want that kind of treatment, than I'll ask for it. Can you really think of one sensible argument not to answer to my request for drawing a couple of simple lines on a chart?

As for responsibility, the losses I've accumulated already make me feel responsible enough. I have to live with them each day and follow the consequences. Once again, all this is in no way means your argument does not hold a single bit of truth, but as other newbies will tell you, taking a look at somebody's journal should help them discover, help them along the path.