Well, we're having a Fibonacci Retracement quiz night at my local pub next Tuesday and I just want to get clued up babe.
Seriously though I really need to get a handle on which Fib levels are the most frequent as Fib analysis is integral to my trading strategy, hunk.
Don't agree with you on the 78.2% though. It has to be 50% or the 61.8% hon.
trendie
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The 78.2% was my opinion. I didnt say it was fact. The past few retracements on the Dow have been of the 78% variety.
Pub quiz on Fibs - it isnt a pub round the corner to Mensa is it ?
Seriously, it is a good question.
But personally, if you "load" your mind with "expectations", and you believe the 50% are more frequent,
whenever a 78% or 127% comes along, are you sure your mind wont reject or be unconvinced, because you have "pre-conceptions", and then falter on pulling the trigger ?
I prefer not to care, then I take every signal that comes along, because I dont know in advance which signal is going to give me the best return.
The other issue is that 50% tend to "dither", and there is sometimes sideways action, while the market decides if it going to retrace back, or goes on further. I would have thought 50% are more risky, as the marekt hasnt made up its mind to go on or go back.
A 38% or 78% has made up its mind, and retracements from there are more defined.
A glance at the Dow shows dithering at the 50% mark.
So although you may be correct, it may not be the best decision making point.
Good luck on the quiz. What is the prize ?
Pub quiz on Fibs - it isnt a pub round the corner to Mensa is it ?
Seriously, it is a good question.
But personally, if you "load" your mind with "expectations", and you believe the 50% are more frequent,
whenever a 78% or 127% comes along, are you sure your mind wont reject or be unconvinced, because you have "pre-conceptions", and then falter on pulling the trigger ?
I prefer not to care, then I take every signal that comes along, because I dont know in advance which signal is going to give me the best return.
The other issue is that 50% tend to "dither", and there is sometimes sideways action, while the market decides if it going to retrace back, or goes on further. I would have thought 50% are more risky, as the marekt hasnt made up its mind to go on or go back.
A 38% or 78% has made up its mind, and retracements from there are more defined.
A glance at the Dow shows dithering at the 50% mark.
So although you may be correct, it may not be the best decision making point.
Good luck on the quiz. What is the prize ?
I'd say 50%, as not only will it trap the Fib AND the Gann guys, but 50% is also a common area for stops (mental and physical).
Before using any of these magic ratio's, you'd probably be better off thinking to your self why price would reverse at this magical level? Will price reverse in a V or will there be consolidation? That may lead you to part of the answer, but most importantly WHY would anyone want to buy or sell at 71.8, 45.67, pi, any other level?
If the markets are as easy as 50% or 71.xyz, how come most people on this board are probably losing money?
Before using any of these magic ratio's, you'd probably be better off thinking to your self why price would reverse at this magical level? Will price reverse in a V or will there be consolidation? That may lead you to part of the answer, but most importantly WHY would anyone want to buy or sell at 71.8, 45.67, pi, any other level?
If the markets are as easy as 50% or 71.xyz, how come most people on this board are probably losing money?
Is it likely that the retracement will be higher, the greater the move preceding it is ?
Because most people on this board are probably stupid and incapable of disciplined behaviour
I use price and volume in the main but I find the use of Fib analysis in calculating my trade entry level at the end of a retracement pretty useful. Seems to work ok and I use 50% or 61.8% depending on the magnitude of the preceding move.
Because most people on this board are probably stupid and incapable of disciplined behaviour
I use price and volume in the main but I find the use of Fib analysis in calculating my trade entry level at the end of a retracement pretty useful. Seems to work ok and I use 50% or 61.8% depending on the magnitude of the preceding move.
The type of retracement (or projection) is related to the "degree" in which price is tracing out, so the elliott people tell us..)
61.8 & above is far more common in wave 2, where as 38.2 is the wave 4 favourite as the rule of alternation goes...
Oh and 50% is not a fib ratio....... :cheesy:
)61.8 & above is far more common in wave 2, where as 38.2 is the wave 4 favourite as the rule of alternation goes...
Oh and 50% is not a fib ratio....... :cheesy:
c6ackp
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Hi Alice,
My gut reaction: 62% is the most likely retracement level.
I'm not sure if there's a precise definition of what constitutes a 62%,50%, etc. level retracement, but my definition is that there must be a *close* above that level. For example many "62%" retracement bars will have "tails" (high/low) which either touch or pierce the 79% fib level.
I just did a quick scan of Cable - last 30 days - hourly bars...
79% 1
62% 5
50% 3
38% 2
So, for cable, it looks like there's a case for saying that a 62% fib retracement *may* be almost twice as likely as the other fib levels.
Very limited sample(!) but these numbers seem sensible (definite bias towards 62%).
HTH & best of luck
Steve
My gut reaction: 62% is the most likely retracement level.
I'm not sure if there's a precise definition of what constitutes a 62%,50%, etc. level retracement, but my definition is that there must be a *close* above that level. For example many "62%" retracement bars will have "tails" (high/low) which either touch or pierce the 79% fib level.
I just did a quick scan of Cable - last 30 days - hourly bars...
79% 1
62% 5
50% 3
38% 2
So, for cable, it looks like there's a case for saying that a 62% fib retracement *may* be almost twice as likely as the other fib levels.
Very limited sample(!) but these numbers seem sensible (definite bias towards 62%).
HTH & best of luck
Steve
Win at what Uncle ?
Trading or something else ?
If it's trading you mean then I will win in the end because I am already winning and just seeking to make even more money.
I would tend to agree Steve. My trading usually involves using a 62 per center and it works well.
50% is ok ( Fib or not - who cares anyway ? ) but I find 62% more reliable and safer for how I use it.
61.8 is kinda self fulfilling these days...Smart money who gained on the first impulse part , will often start to cover their positions to lock in some $$$ (which creates the retracement) then start buying /selling around the 61.8 for a run back to the *resistance/support point .. (*which provided a halt to the impusle wave).
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Alice said:
Useful info go to https://www.dynamictraders.com/PDFStore/main.asp think of purchasing End of wave Price Projection Manual
Also useful http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1063,00.html select 'Education' Tab then select Webinars - choose free on-line lectures on Fib where referenced - will need to fill in registration form - costs nothing.
TheBramble
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Alice, your initial post in this thread asked for opinions and rankings of Fibs. You have subsequently tended to dismiss the opinions you apparently were seeking with your own ideas of what 'is'.
Why ask?
On the other hand, you could be someone else just on a wind up - and why not.
As an attempt at a genuine response to what may or may not have been a genuine question:
The whole thing with Fibs is they are so subjective it really doesn't matter. It doesn't matter where you start or where you finish or where you project. It's all a Fib. Daily/Weekly/Intraday Highs and Lows, Support & Resistance - sometimes they work - some of the time. It's generally better to start at the right-hand edge of the chart and work backward - it's always so much clearer that way.
Isn't that how you do it in Wonderland?
And can I ask one more question...
Did you choose to go through the looking-glass - or did someone throw you?
Why ask?
On the other hand, you could be someone else just on a wind up - and why not.
As an attempt at a genuine response to what may or may not have been a genuine question:
The whole thing with Fibs is they are so subjective it really doesn't matter. It doesn't matter where you start or where you finish or where you project. It's all a Fib. Daily/Weekly/Intraday Highs and Lows, Support & Resistance - sometimes they work - some of the time. It's generally better to start at the right-hand edge of the chart and work backward - it's always so much clearer that way.
Isn't that how you do it in Wonderland?
And can I ask one more question...
Did you choose to go through the looking-glass - or did someone throw you?
