Fear of missing out

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
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#31
Cryptocurrency has no intrinsic value unlike traditional currencies. In simplistic terms, it is just a digitised medium to facilitate financial transactions. In the case of Bitcoin, demand is fueled by speculation and since supply is capped this invariably drives the unit price upwards. However in any free market, opportunities attract threats in the form of surrogates e.g. Ethereum et al. Blockchain technology itself is not a barrier to entry for any commercial entity willing to commit resources in building an exchange. This means, the supply of exchanges offering crypto is only limited by the commercial opportunities. In other words, supply will eventually normalise pricing in the supply demand equation. Those holding a view that somehow Bitcoin would only have a one way trajectory should reexamine their rationale because when you have thousands of Bitcoin type crypto exchanges offering their own version of crypto what would happen to valuation? It simply boils down to supply and demand and the flip side is that the number of exchanges can be theoretically unlimited.

For those currently trading Bitcoin, I would ask just one simple question. What is your trade plan to exit your position be it to take profits or to protect your capital?
 

brewski1984

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2010
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#32
For those currently trading Bitcoin, I would ask just one simple question. What is your trade plan to exit your position be it to take profits or to protect your capital?
Nobody seems to want to answer that.

Like it or not though, as traders shouldn’t we be looking for opportunities to make money? Regardless of what Bitcoin actually is and how much it’s fundamentally worth it is surely being traded on emotion and herd mentality right now... isn’t there an opportunity to make money from that? It might be a bubble but if the whole world is driving the price up, shouldn’t us “traders” that have (hopefully) a little bit more knowledge than most of the world that hasn’t got a clue, use that to our advantage?

Which brokers offer Spreadbets on bitcoin? CMC don’t have it

Edit: I see etx capital offer it, does anyone use etx and what are they like?
 
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Quantt

Active member
Jul 23, 2017
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#35
Which brokers offer Spreadbets on bitcoin? CMC don’t have it
That's the problem isn't it?

There are no regulated exchanges with the government protection where you can transfer let's say 6 digits account, so you can start to trade and make money...
Your risk is that the exchange can get hacked tomorrow or the owner can disappear with the money or worst you can be a victim of market manipulation and lose it all with no way of getting your money back...
Even the comparison with the dot com bubble is not good, because we traded on the regulated market and we were protected by the government and this is not the case here, so I don't care if it goes to 1 mil tomorrow or next year, I am not risking my hard earned money for this when I have much better choices...
 

brewski1984

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2010
2,027
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#38
That's the problem isn't it?

There are no regulated exchanges with the government protection where you can transfer let's say 6 digits account, so you can start to trade and make money...
Your risk is that the exchange can get hacked tomorrow or the owner can disappear with the money or worst you can be a victim of market manipulation and lose it all with no way of getting your money back...
Even the comparison with the dot com bubble is not good, because we traded on the regulated market and we were protected by the government and this is not the case here, so I don't care if it goes to 1 mil tomorrow or next year, I am not risking my hard earned money for this when I have much better choices...
If you've got 6 digits to put in an account, surely it's worth buying just 1 Bitcoin for a small punt? There are a few spread betting brokers that offer it and it seems a far less riskier way to trade it than actually buying one provided you don't abuse leverage (Brewski!). I haven't looked into how wide the spreads are or the costs involved to see if it's an efficient way but at least you won't get hacked. I fully understand that for people focusing on risk it makes absolutely no sense.

How many bitcoins are actually out there now? How many more can reasonably be mined?

I know NOTHING about it.
I thought there was only a certain amount but apparently there's hard forks where they can just decide to split it and double it?
 

Quantt

Active member
Jul 23, 2017
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#39
How many bitcoins are actually out there now? How many more can reasonably be mined?

I know NOTHING about it.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

The more interesting question is how many were given for "free" in the begging and how many are being held by Satoshi and others like him...

As you know by now, I am quite a bit paranoid when it comes to the internet security (part of the job description), so I wont be surprised one bit, if the whole thing is in fact a CIA operation in order to combat terrorist (and criminal in some cases) financing with the illusion of border/government free and untraceable currency (which is a quite a contradiction to the block chain technology powering the whole thing)... Very very similar MO to the dark web tor browser made by the US Naval intelligence
 

Quantt

Active member
Jul 23, 2017
945
57
38
#40
If you've got 6 digits to put in an account, surely it's worth buying just 1 Bitcoin for a small punt? There are a few spread betting brokers that offer it and it seems a far less riskier way to trade it than actually buying one provided you don't abuse leverage (Brewski!).
It is against my principals to gamble like that, so buying or not one bit coin will not change my life one way or the other, not to mention if I bought 1 for let's say $30, I would have sold it already long time ago... for the ultimate gambling reward I am in my office lottery pool and diligently putting my $2 every week...

Frankly, I don't know how spread betting actually works, looks like English thing, so I cannot comment on it, I was talking about straight trading bit coins on actual exchange... not to mention one of my other rules is to not use leverage, so right here it is a no go for me...
 
Likes: brewski1984

brewski1984

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2010
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#41
All kicking off right now aint it?

Does the price differ depending on what exchange or site you look at? Literally everywhere I look is a different price right now.
 

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
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#43
Nobody seems to want to answer that.

Like it or not though, as traders shouldn’t we be looking for opportunities to make money? Regardless of what Bitcoin actually is and how much it’s fundamentally worth it is surely being traded on emotion and herd mentality right now... isn’t there an opportunity to make money from that? It might be a bubble but if the whole world is driving the price up, shouldn’t us “traders” that have (hopefully) a little bit more knowledge than most of the world that hasn’t got a clue, use that to our advantage?
I don't disagree if some see it as an opportunity to trade Bitcoin and make money in the process. However trading a parabolic phase is not as simple as assuming one can just make money without considering the elevated risk.

In a parabolic phase, one can easily define the parabolic anchor points that defines the curve. If the ascending anchor point is taken out then the phase is likely over. Currently that stop point is around $5400. Exhaustion is impossible to determine until after the fact. Unless you are stopped out or elect to take profits during the exhaustion move (impossible to be optimal), then whatever profits that you may be sitting on is simply on paper and can easily disappear.

Therefore the question - what is the trade plan?
 

brewski1984

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2010
2,027
343
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#44
Another major red flag right there...
I have to admit, I was checking a few places and thinking I'm so glad I'm not trading it. Seems like each site was just quoting whatever price they wanted and if I'd had any money on it I would have been twitching:LOL:


I don't disagree if some see it as an opportunity to trade Bitcoin and make money in the process. However trading a parabolic phase is not as simple as assuming one can just make money without considering the elevated risk.

In a parabolic phase, one can easily define the parabolic anchor points that defines the curve. If the ascending anchor point is taken out then the phase is likely over. Currently that stop point is around $5400. Exhaustion is impossible to determine until after the fact. Unless you are stopped out or elect to take profits during the exhaustion move (impossible to be optimal), then whatever profits that you may be sitting on is simply on paper and can easily disappear.

Therefore the question - what is the trade plan?
I think the only plan anyone can have with Bitcoin is to just buy it with money that they don't mind losing and hope for the best - a pure gamble. Anyone who's invested a significant amount of money (relative to them) is just asking for trouble. Judging from what I've seen today and to be fair I've only really taken an interest in it the last couple days so it might not be a fair conclusion, it just seems untradeable.