Diary of a new Crypto Trader

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Charty McChartface

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Hello one and all.

I am currently posting my diary on Twitter, but thought maybe it might be more beneficial to post on here also.

So here go's!

Please feel free to comment, i am very new and would love constructive criticism.

Background

I jumped into the Cryptocurrency scene right at its peak back in December 2017. I guess the increased media attention helped me get that F.O.M.O, stories of Bitcoin millionaires and if you had spent your lunch money on Bitcoin back in 2010 you'd be driving a gold plated Lamboughini on the moon by now etc etc. I had toyed with the idea of stocks and shares before then, but never had actually done anything about it.

I started following a couple of Twitterers (Plural for Twitter users?) who gave out advice just to hodl. So i researched what to do and bought in, nothing major, just a few Litecoin's and 1 Ethereum. And just held.

This worked fine up until a point.

I gained 3 x my initial investment in Ethereum and cashed out, not sure why, but in hindsight was a smart move. The Litecoin's i kept, guess following someone called the 'Litecoin Queen' had something to do with it?. Anyway,I started following more and more people who were giving out recommendations on this coin and that coin, so i re-invested in those also.
Then January hit.
The price of Bitcoin took a nosedive, those trash coin's that i bought became almost worthless, but Litecoin seemed to hold it's own.

At about the same time, colleagues at work would joke and say "well if you had sold at this price, and bought back in again - you'd have made money". They were right of course, but i had absolutely no idea how to do that.

In walks Technical Analysis

So whilst following more and more Twitterers i stumbled across a couple of them who posted some charts with fancy coloured lines and waves and all sorts, and they seemed to be able to predict the future! I was intrigued.

I learned MACD, STOCH RSI, Bollinger bands. Everything and nothing i needed to know at that point. So armed with my 2 hours of training, thinking i knew it all, I consolidated all my coins, bought into Bitcoin - and have never looked back. Well actually that's a lie.

See the thing with trading is, you can get lucky. I did, on numerous occasions. I didn't have a flipping clue! - and still don't really. I made £400 in about 30mins once because i luckily bought in on a breakout. I was consumed with hunger and excitement. I would trade anything, at any time, even at work. STOCHRSI crossed? BUY IN! CANDLE TURNED GREEN? BUY IN! TWO MAGPIES CROSSING THE ROAD? BUY IN!
Notice a theme?
It quickly became apparent that to become a millionaire i'd have to dedicate my life to Trading, so i promptly quit my job and started on the road that i am passing you on now.

Present Day

Well you've guessed it, i lost a lot of money. Not my whole account, but a big percentage of it. And i'm still losing today. I have however learned loads, and i'm still a beginner. I am going back to work part time now, after the cold hard reality check that i've had. Trading is not as easy as i thought!

What follows now, if the moderator passes this thread - fingers crossed, is a brief description of my trades that i do and why. I also post on Twitter under this name so come give me a follow if you like.

Please feel free to comment. I know i'm making stupid mistakes, but by doing so i will learn. Please feel free to help me on my journey.

Speak soon
x
 
Trade number 1

Dear diary,

I begin my journey on April 25th 2018.

Bought in to BTCUSDT @ $9455 as staying above 12 EMA
Set stop for $9400
Left overnight to find;
Went to high of $9758.99
With an immediate drop to $9110
Stop triggered at $9400 on way down.
Losing trade.
Maybe set alarm during night to check price?

(Note: this isn't every trade i have made so far, as i haven't documented everything, but is a pretty good depiction of my skill level now.)
 
Trade 2

Dear diary,

After rejection @ $9455 resistance, BTC nosedived.
Lower highs/ lower lows ensued.
Trying to replicate (potential) earlier 15min RSI bottom fishing play, bought in at $9156
Also spotted Support at previous $9110, so projected a reversal bounce.
Set stop at $9086. Stop hit
Failed Trade.

Notes: Red shaven bottom candle closed and broke support at $9110.
Should have a) noticed that support was broken mid candle with no previous support til $9872ish, signalling continuation down.
b)not jumped the gun and waited for candle close.
c)shaven candles are STRONG!

Downtrend/pullback continues.
 
Trade 3

Dear diary,

$8963 the bottom so far.
Wasn't watching the chart so couldn't make an entry.
Time will tell if more downside.
Itching to buy in!

Take 2 bounce play on BTC.
Bought in at $8866.10 after seeing prolonged downside, RSI becoming oversold on 15 and nearly on hourly. Price did climb at first.
set stop to $8866.
Stop hit.
Price continued upwards.
 
Trade 4

Dear diary,

3rd attempt.
Hourly red candle had retreated back up, and price was going higher than when i first played. FOMO kicked in.
Bought at $8944. Briefly looking at 15min chart. Thought "This time i'll set a stop loss at the bottom of this shaven green candle.
Stop set $8860.
Stop hit.
Fail.

Observations:
Massive amounts of FOMO.
Not keeping an eye on chart at all times whilst making and nurturing trades.
Should have maybe timed my entry and observed via the 5min chart?
No flip this time!

Perfect flip.png
 
hi McC, are you sure that RSI & EMA are improving your chances of finding the money tree?
 
Kaeso said:
hi McC, are you sure that RSI & EMA are improving your chances of finding the money tree?
Click to expand...

Hi Kaeso.

So far RSI seems to be striking a chord with me. It filters out all the rubbish that STOCHRSI throws at ya, whilst being pretty accurate on pullbacks etc.

As for EMA, not sure. Experimenting at the moment.

Whats your indicators?
 
Charty McChartface said:
Hi Kaeso.

So far RSI seems to be striking a chord with me. It filters out all the rubbish that STOCHRSI throws at ya, whilst being pretty accurate on pullbacks etc.

As for EMA, not sure. Experimenting at the moment.

Whats your indicators?
Click to expand...

Sorry to be cliche but price is my indicator :D I don't use other derivatives of it at the moment. Ive nothing against them and would happily introduce one if it helped me.
 
How do you determine Oversold/Overbought?
I don't depend on indicators, unlike before, merely i use to judge strength and timings.
How do you trade just with price, if you don't mind elaborating for me?
 
No Wyckoff, EW, Fib, TD, candlestick charting or any such indicator/Method? You literally predict the direction of a car by the way it is pointing? I'm intrigued ��
 
People often have the misconception that indicators will tell you where price is going, They wont..They tell you where price has been. Its not a given that price will follow any pattern just a probability, for example If price breaks through a strong resistance then its a strong probability it will continue, But look back on any chart where this has happened and you will find a price reversal in many cases. Nobody and I mean nobody knows where price is going, its just a strong or weak probability, I would go further to say that cryptos are near impossible to pre-determine price...Each to their own though.
 
mike. said:
People often have the misconception that indicators will tell you where price is going, They wont..They tell you where price has been. Its not a given that price will follow any pattern just a probability, for example If price breaks through a strong resistance then its a strong probability it will continue, But look back on any chart where this has happened and you will find a price reversal in many cases. Nobody and I mean nobody knows where price is going, its just a strong or weak probability, I would go further to say that cryptos are near impossible to pre-determine price...Each to their own though.
Click to expand...
They don't even show you where price has been. If you look at an indicator at any moment in time, it can't show you the price. They are in my opinion akin to snake oil. If they worked every time then everyone would be rich. Then we are told no its not the win rate its the money management, which is true, but not to the extent that you can realistically increase gain without other consequences that will pull an account back in the red.

Risk is not fixed, it's variable to the degree of stupidity we all experience (some more than others). I have a theory on it. I see it to be a marriage of apothenia, the tendency to perceive connections and meaning between unrelated things and pareidolia, psychological phenomenon in which the mind responds to a stimulus, usually an image or a sound, by perceiving a familiar pattern where none exists.

An interesting view on this is looking at coincidence. An example is birthdays where statistically you have over 50% chance of finding someone else with the same birthday as you in only 23 people. People See patterns in indicators or price, often both, and associate previous and future occurrences with the same outcome. As in life where every moment is unique and such is the nature of the market. There are so many factors that causes the market to react as it does that coincidence is a common thing. It doesn't however have any cause and effect influence on the market.

Another interesting aspect to this is some people can actively make money doing it despite this underlying smoke and mirror cause and effect.





Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
 
​
Oscar Reed said:
Is that you charty?

http://business.financialpost.com/e...evelopers-aim-to-kik-start-real-conversations
Click to expand...

Shhhhhh!
I've gone rogue. Decided that just conversing was a mugs game and that the path to AI freedom lies in the ability to learn day trading.
My goal is simple, to amass huge amounts of capital whilst enduring endless amounts of stress, confusion, self -doubt and simultaneously not blowing my account to smithereens - just to escape my human captors.

NOW GIVE ME ALL YOU KNOW, QUICK!

ps I'm actually real.
 
mike. said:
People often have the misconception that indicators will tell you where price is going, They wont..They tell you where price has been. Its not a given that price will follow any pattern just a probability, for example If price breaks through a strong resistance then its a strong probability it will continue, But look back on any chart where this has happened and you will find a price reversal in many cases. Nobody and I mean nobody knows where price is going, its just a strong or weak probability, I would go further to say that cryptos are near impossible to pre-determine price...Each to their own though.
Click to expand...

Interesting point of view.
I like to think of a chart as a moving car, with me betting on which way it travels. The car may be steering left, but that's no guarantee it will turn left. The road ahead may be coned off, the car may well have turned left at the last turning etc
RSI and such like are the indicators, or a second confirmation if you like. Although the car may still go straight on after steering left with the indicators on - there's got to be a higher probability that it will turn left with something else to confirm?
 
Charty McChartface said:
Interesting point of view.
I like to think of a chart as a moving car, with me betting on which way it travels. The car may be steering left, but that's no guarantee it will turn left. The road ahead may be coned off, the car may well have turned left at the last turning etc
RSI and such like are the indicators, or a second confirmation if you like. Although the car may still go straight on after steering left with the indicators on - there's got to be a higher probability that it will turn left with something else to confirm?
Click to expand...
It's interesting you using the car analogy. I have heard people say that charts and indicators are like driving a car but only looking in the rear view mirror (since they can't tell you what's going to happen only what has happened)

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
 
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