facebook IPO 18th May Predictions
- Thread starter mrniceguychris
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Atilla
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Do you? Numbers don't add up to me. Either price is OT or earnings out of kilter.
1. FB net income is @ $700m
2. Compare that to Google's net income @ $2.7bn
3. Now compare to an existing productive company of my choice Corning Inc with tangible products and glowing future GLW.
Corning Inc net income @ $500m, PE @ 8 and ... + dividends @ 2.3%,
....................................Net Income $bn 0.7 : 2.7 : 0.5
4. Now compare P/E ratios FB:Google:GLW === 63 : 18 : 8
So is it the price or earnings???
A. FB pricing inconsistent to peer ie Google
B. FB price no comparison to regular technology industry player ie Corning
FB GOOGLE GLW
Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 63.1087 17.9767 8.071
Estimated P/E (12/2012) 52.686 13.6204 9.6423
Earnings Per Share (USD) (ttm) 0.46 32.98 1.62
Est. EPS (USD) (12/2012) 0.551 43.528 1.356
Market Cap (M USD) 69,049.08 193,185.22 19,842.52
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 0 0 2.2945
Spot the white elephant in the room?
I find it difficult to believe people buy this kind of nonsense to be honest.
PS. Sorry guys but tabulation gets removed. I'm sure you can work it out.
tar
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why 60 ?
barjon
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I wasn't quarrelling with an unfavourable comparison, merely about needing to see some real earnings. Real earnings they have, coupled with extraordinary cash flow, minimal debt and a 44% year on year increase in quarterly revenues.
They need to keep up such stellar growth to justify the ipo valuation which may be unlikely but not impossible. We need to wait for some audited accounts for some solid figures - at the moment everywhere you look you find a different set.
Atilla
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Good point add no track record to that list of strikes against FB compared to established and audited businesses.
Not quarrelling either - just that my point is, all these big investment bankers and so called analysts and as you rightly state no consistent assessment or accurate visibility of the business.
Yes I would dispute their real earnings and cash flow too as we need independent review. Tescos and Utilities have better dependable cash flow imho.
What does all this tell Joe Public about the top investment bankers GS and MS???
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I would just like to chime in with company's questionable acquisitions such as instagram 1bln, now talk of buying opera.. None of this inspired confidence. It's a bit disgusting and an insight into the contempt wall street holds retail investors with. Facebooks users can and will leave, it's old hat twitter is the new thing but for how long.
Atilla
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Absolutely - and to me that smacks of desperation. They need to leverage the business model with something that's going to produce 'synergies' (buzz word they like to use) but I'm thinking horizontal & vertical and nothing jumps at me.
What do spotty teenagers want from FB would be the big ask and how much they are prepared to spend out of their pocket monies?
Dunno - games & zit cream??? No offence Eighteen :cheesy:
scose-no-doubt
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Atilla
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Must add that since I deleted my Facebook the clearasil ad revenue must be down by at least 80% 
so far the trade looks good with no hint of slowing could see a pullback but a pullback is just another entry point. 13.80 would be nice but once we get to 20 I think the fall will be much slower
so far the trade looks good with no hint of slowing could see a pullback but a pullback is just another entry point. 13.80 would be nice but once we get to 20 I think the fall will be much slower
counter_violent
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Well it won't tell them anything will it. Joe Public=collection of dimwits who are always the last to know !
It ought to tell them that banks, accountants, salesmen, etc, are only interested in extracting as much money as possible in exchange for worthless crap. A neat trick if you can get away with it, and they usually do !
Atilla
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You could bring it to BE maybe??? Your choice?
Some big hitters late in the session seeing value in FB? Now who could that possibly be?
Hold steady as FB decline will continue soon enough as earnings compared to price is off the richter scale.
Thanks Pete and that's what triggered the attempt when I saw the news on BBG.
Such an over rated hyped up stock. Even at $30. I'm not sure it will even stop at $20 unless they can show some real business value and earnings potential.
If FB don't leverage up by hooking up with some real businesses like perhaps universities or academic institutions then it's going to be much ado about nothing.
I reckon every investor, his dog and black and white cat will be shorting FB. Budgies and parrots even...
Feels like free money to me...
I always think alarm bells should ring when it looks too easy.
Atilla
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Certainly felt like it was free money
I reckon there is big money crying it's eyes out. Will they be able to halt the rot?
It's all a game to the big boys. I also believe as it not their money they can be as free and lazy with it as they like.
However, I'm now looking at the value of other high tech similar stocks and wondering is Google, Amazon and eBay really worth that much?
Facebook’s Sale
At least 13 IPOs have been withdrawn or postponed globally since Facebook’s May 17 offering, slowing a market for deals that’s struggled to keep momentum as U.S. stock values have failed to recover to levels before the financial crisis. There have been 192 IPOs globally since the beginning of April, putting this quarter on pace to be the slowest since 177 initial offers were completed in the three months through September 2009, Bloomberg data show.
Facebook completed the biggest technology IPO on record just as offerings were drying up, and has since lost more than $20 billion in market value. No other companies have completed or set pricing terms for U.S. IPOs since the Menlo Park, California-based social-networking company raised $16 billion.
I could be wrong too
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Certainly felt like it was free money
I reckon there is big money crying it's eyes out. Will they be able to halt the rot?
It's all a game to the big boys. I also believe as it not their money they can be as free and lazy with it as they like.
However, I'm now looking at the value of other high tech similar stocks and wondering is Google, Amazon and eBay really worth that much?
Facebook’s Sale
At least 13 IPOs have been withdrawn or postponed globally since Facebook’s May 17 offering, slowing a market for deals that’s struggled to keep momentum as U.S. stock values have failed to recover to levels before the financial crisis. There have been 192 IPOs globally since the beginning of April, putting this quarter on pace to be the slowest since 177 initial offers were completed in the three months through September 2009, Bloomberg data show.
Facebook completed the biggest technology IPO on record just as offerings were drying up, and has since lost more than $20 billion in market value. No other companies have completed or set pricing terms for U.S. IPOs since the Menlo Park, California-based social-networking company raised $16 billion.
I could be wrong too
I think there must be SO many people shorting this now that at some point they're going to have to cover their positions, and there won't be enough stock available, so the price will go up and up. I would almost buy it off the back of this evening's pop up. But haven't got the guts.
