Evening trading US shares

[PitBull]

Hi Frank

Hope all is well.

Here's the news, they need additional clinical data before approval of Provenge.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw069.html

Might provide a good opportunity, let's see

All the best

 

[PitBull]

DNDN, unfortunately not on easy to borrow list at TS. 🙁

 

[dvdh]

DNDN, unfortunately not on easy to borrow list at TS. 🙁

Also at IB.

 

[PitBull]

Could be good for recovery play, but also watch the other cancer vaccines CEGE, AGEN, GTOP, FVRL and biotechs.

 

[vegas]

Could be good for recovery play, but also watch the other cancer vaccines CEGE, AGEN, GTOP, FVRL and biotechs.

Exactly as I shall be watching for - news on DNDN appears fairly benign. Although trade what you see - not what you think as they say.

Frank.

 

[Grey1]

Tim my man

My daily target is not a fixed amount,, In fact if you correctly adjust your postions size the target must be a function of the equity curve, In another word if the equity curve rises then the target increases and visa versa.

I expect an average of .75% to 1% return daily . This sum is between $1750- $2000

There is a Monthly threshold in my equity curve ceiling ( I take profit when the threshhold is reached pushing the curve back to 20 period back ) ,, The Profit is then transferred to my LONG TERM PORTFOLIO for LONG TERM INVESTMENTS) ,,

The reason for taking profit every month is

1) I am a fundamentalist more than a technician hence going for long term buy /hold
2) it is mathematically possibe( but only mathematically ) a day trading account to out perform a BUY /Hold Account,, This is not an easy task and most traders fail to do so .

Today I only made $604 before cost. AN incredibly difficult day for me ,,
GREY1 ALSO SHORTED LRCX .. THIS IS AN OVER NIGHT TRADE .

PS:-- by the way TIM u have been on this BB since years and years ago . You must be doing some thing right to have survived the market ,, Keep up the good work and always say MUCHAS GRACIAS when you win .. LEE says it I say it lets all say it lol

An easy peasy day .. LRCX did as i thought it would and is now trading @ low of the day ..

Up |$900 some thing .

 

[Grey1]

here are the trades

 

[Grey1]

What can i say except MUCHAS GRACIASSSSSSSSSS

Awesome and simple trading day .. another day another |$$$ I am mentoring one member of this BB here watching my trades and I hope i have contributed to his knowledge.

ERTS , X short and BBY , AKAM LONG .. Not bad for 45 min work ...

 

[Grey1]

I was going to hedge PG short against Long BBY as a divergent hedge but i tried 3 times to get in PG and i could not ,, This was a warning on the Exit side of the PG trade hence no trade on PG,,

 

[Grey1]

Also added a good chunk to my winnings out of AMGN for the after noon trading '

My market direction analysis last friday resulted in selling 75% of my long long swing postions and to day I sold the rest .. SO NO LONG postions on US stocks.
(I did mentioned my view on this thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=328288#post328288 ) last friday

Todays sell off was not all that un expected as both daily and weekly chart of DOW was OB and it was just matter of days to have a correction ..( Multi time frame analysis ) I feel we have a lot lot more down days to come our way and those of you who trade US stock can throw a dart at any OB stock with synchronised stock /market cycle and make easy $$$.

I have not taken any over night postions but X and EXPD looked a high probabilty short for 2morrow.


Grey1

 

[Grey1]

What a day >.. After getting the market direction totally wrong I ended up losing to EXPD which i thought it was a good short as well as AMGN , BRCM and JOYG . A very bad start and that was only and only due to getting the direction wrong .

This was my trading plan ,

I knew there would be a reactionary affect to the yesterday sell off as a result i waited the market to get to Plus 50Ish(* top of my volatility envelope ) and then looking for shorting EXPD and I did ,, Market momentum was much higher than what I thought and I paid greatly for my error. A string of errors to day got me pretty off gurad .

This is how i trade

WIN lotsof money = if market direction is correct + stock direction is correct ( in the time frame u are trading and not daily )

LOSE loads of money = If market direction is wrong + stock direction is wrong ( again in the time frame u are trading

LUCKY or UN LUCKY day = get one of the directions wrong and u might win or lose depending on which instrument ( market or stock ) has higher momentum and which one you got wrong ..


The above is called TOP DOWN approach ,,

Can some one tell me what is the probability of getting both Market and stock direction correct ? Is it 25 %.. is this why traders lose ? Hmm a quiz for you guys

I am up $ 692 as it . Muchas Gracias but only JUST

 

[PitBull]

Hi Grey

With a few losses, do you aim to make it back by being more aggressive or do you have rules where you shut off after a predetermined amount of $ loss? Basically what I am trying to say was AKAM a fixed position size as per your normal rules as it looks like this covered most of your loss?

All the best
Muchas Gracias
Lee

 

[Grey1]

This is me to day . Looking forward to week end, I hope u all did well this week . Enjoy ur winnings .

DOW gained most of its loss to day but i still am not going to Open any long postions till DOW correct itself, The reward simply does not justify the risk ,,,

DOW is shadowing Shanghai . I wont .

grey1

 

[Grey1]

I wont be posting any P/L from Monday . No particular reason just bored of it

Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Hi Grey

With a few losses, do you aim to make it back by being more aggressive or do you have rules where you shut off after a predetermined amount of $ loss? Basically what I am trying to say was AKAM a fixed position size as per your normal rules as it looks like this covered most of your loss?

All the best
Muchas Gracias
Lee

Mathematically it is very wrong to become aggressive when you lose. In fact you should reduce your position size and try to recover the losses with more number of wins. This is correct and basic approach There is how ever another way if you wish to take an aggressive trade. The aggressive trade must carry much less risk than a normal trade but the set up might not happen on the day you are down ..The set up is to identify a trade in the direction of the dominant cycle when the volatility bands shrink to minimum .. This set up does not happen often intra day but if it did its R/R is high … AKAM trade was the reflection of such technique . People with small know ledge of volatility concepts and their application in financial time series must stick to Anti martingale technique mentioned above and avoid aggressive approach .

Hope this helped
Grey1

 

[PitBull]

I thought so Grey, very wise!
Top man!

 

[rajibde]

Hi Grey1,

For a profitable swing trade- what is the criteria you apply for an exit? Do you also consider taking part profits each day you are in the trade?

Regards

Raj

 

[Grey1]

Hi Grey1,

For a profitable swing trade- what is the criteria you apply for an exit? Do you also consider taking part profits each day you are in the trade?

Regards

Raj

Hi

There are many technical reasons for an exit, but the most and easiest rule for any trader to follow is 3 days rule ,, you take profit after 3 profitable days. This also applies in intra day trading ,, you take profit after 3 bars ( each bar must be grater than previous bar and the last bar finishes @ high of the bar ) .

This is hit and run and greed must not take over your decision .. OUT OUT after the last bar

Grey1

 

[rajibde]

Thanks Grey1. A few days ago when you closed your positions in URRE & URZ at the market open (and the shares subsequently dropped for the whole day), I had wondered, what was your criteria to anticipate the exit at such a correct point.

Raj

 

[Grey1]

Thanks Grey1. A few days ago when you closed your positions in URRE & URZ at the market open (and the shares subsequently dropped for the whole day), I had wondered, what was your criteria to anticipate the exit at such a correct point.

Raj

Rajbe,

Speculative stocks are dead dead easy to trade. All you have to do is to look at their sector,, If most stocks in the sector open weak then for the rest of the day they go down , if strong they fly , They must be the easiest stocks to play .
I have made loads and load of $$ out of playing uranium sector ..

grey1