Euro/$---GBP/$ Where now?

[User]

Might be an idea, but 190 for £ and 130 for euro are resistance levels. So the sterling soared above 190 and now if it can sustain itself above it then that signifies a move higher no doubt.

Definate target of 2.00 as stated before will be achieved-long term.

Just spoke to Greenspan a few minutes ago and told him to back of the rate hikes until further notice.

He said don't worry 'we're in no hurry to raise them, as we want to win elections', 'Then we'll let hell break loose'

Buy GBP and 1000 point profit is not major for long term.

 

[hammer]

I missed the 60 point rise in GBP, was out fixing car! If it falls again, think it will find resistance at 1.9000. Flat at the moment. But yes i definitely agree with you user, the trend is up and a long term position would prob be very profitable. If it hits resistance at 1.9000 again will prob buy a March contract.

 

[money123]

thank for the replies ppl
am thinking of going short gbp v usd (buying dollar selling pound) using cfds when and if USD gets down to 197 ish........ i would probably put down 20% as margin and hold for as long as needed
to make a profit. would this be a good strategy.... i am aware i would have to pay financing which is about a pip a day i think ,,,even if i held for a year this would mean paying 3.65 cents.... im pretty sure the dollar wont stay this weak in the longer term and i should see a decent profit..........
would this be wise of me...
someone mentioned options how do they work and would they be better/cheaper than cfds?

all views/comments appreciated.....

 

[jpwone]

Money123

at what point would you apply a stoploss?

Can you imagine the dollar at $2.00 to the pound ?
$2.50 ?
$3.00 ?

Strange as it might seem I can imagine exactly this. It would seem that the only economy unconcerned about a weak dollar is the American economy. What happens if the American recovery (smoke and mirrors perhaps) is a false one and the Americans slip into deep recession ?

Regardless of the trade method, without a stop, I would consider this as one of the riskiest trades I have seen on T2W.

By the way, I'm consistently wrong with my long term views but I've got to be right one day.

It could be a very good trade but it is not one I would consider for myself.

 

[User]

Hi Jpwone, that’s why I suggested to money123, to consider euro/$ instead of £/$. Also why I suggested waiting till middle of march to wait for jobless figures and if they improve.

Money123 what your saying is very logical but you can never predict the markets even if your 100% right.

First of all, the euro-zone extreme political problems and believe me they aren’t going to get better.

The euro isn't going up because Euro zone is just that strong and outperforming, its going up because of the 'low manipulated battered dollar' which is trying to act as a catalyst for this so called recovery.

The rates will rise possibly in June/July but as far my trading strategy goes: the dollar's decline will stretch further, the Euro and £ is going higher with the euro becoming extremely difficult any time soon and the pound continuing to rise as rates will hit 5.25% no problem.

If I was personally thinking about 'long term' events then I would wait until march: Long the £, possibly even short the euro, and consider buying the dollar.

Extreme top side for the Euro is 1.45- top whack, I say this because that will eat up export growth, and Germany being the largest European economy is dependant on its exports for growth, so if the ECB don’t act at 135 then 145 is a MUST or its all over. Whereas top side for £ is 2.00+

Oh and money123, your plan is not a risky trade, rates will go up in America due to one of two important factors. Firstly job creation and economical growth will lead to a rise or if that doesn't happen then secondly, on the other side of the coin after the election is over, how will they ever reduce that deficit? All in all America is looking at serious long problems.

Goodluck

 

[jpwone]

Hi User

Its not the idea of the trade that I think is dangerous but the lack of a planned exit. The plan seems to be to get the trade on and then wait until its in the money. This could be an expensive wait which could require very deep pockets.

If the trade had a planned stop then it would look a lot better. The Euro and GBP are testing new highs. A pullback at these levels is a good possibility. It is counter to the current trend but the move does seem to be stopping for a bit of air and it could be a great contrarian trade.

Have to agree fully with you about the eurozone. I don't see the strength to justify these levels. It is not a strong euro but , as you said, a weak dollar which has got us here.

Where we are going next I really don't know. I'll just trade what its doing now. A lot safer than trying to forecast the relative values of these currencies a year into the future. Even Greenspan can't do that

 

[User]

I agree. Buying the dollar is a good idea but certainly not yet, only when the fed starts to raise rates.

Yes Greenspan can't predict the values of these currencies in a years time, but believe me they certainly do and can control the dollar along with other currencies, especially when their a** is on the line.



Bear this mind, 'We support a strong dollar policy' well if that’s the case then what is it falling for?

The bottom line is they have control and if they did support it then I’m sure it wouldn't be declining as it is. There's more declines to come and that’s because they want it weak.

Jpwone, back to trading, Thinking of buying more £/$ as it should push higher, after King speaks.

Was speaking to Manager of Nationwide who's also a friend and we came to the conclusion that rates are going up sooner rather then later after today’s high inflation figures. Don't be surprised if rates rise at the next BOE meeting. 190 got taken out today, 2.00 is not many moons away.

Technical Analysis suggesting a pullback, we shall see? A further move higher is still on the cards as it sustained itself above 190.

What’s your TA/FA suggesting?

Do you trade the Nikkei?

 

[darrenf]

From a purely technical point of view gbp/usd is headed for $2.
This is the next major resistance level that was last visited in 1992!! It's all fresh air now til $2. I reckon traders will push it up to this level as we're not that far away now.

But as others have said, I will trade what I see, not what I think.
Right now I see it going up and am long from 1.8960. position still open.

 

[User]

Existing Sterling position @ 18775
Added to long term sterling position @ 18880
New Euro position @ 12824

After euro rising to all time highs its again been a matter of resistance and profit talking bringing the euro down. The euro came down to 12830 but found support at 12840. If it can even hold on to this level for today then normal resolution would be for a move higher.

'Darrenf' Sterling is hitting 2.00 undoubtedly.

 

[darrenf]

But not for now!

As usual, the kiss of death as soon as I post one of my positions!
stopped out of my gbp/usd position at 1.9036 for 96 pips profit.
Fell short of my final target as 1.9171. Still, a profit is a profit!

Will see how the pullback pans out and will probably look to take another long position when it shows signs of picking up again, probably in next day or two.

 

[hammer]

Hey guys how you doin? Im long on euro at 1.2846. Looking for about 20-30 points profit.

 

[User]

Hi Hammmer, yeh I think you'll make 20-30p, actually I think its 20points up now.

Why not open a long contract, use a stightly wider stoploss and ride the trend.

Carry on your day trading as normal in that respect you got two different ways getting the best of both worlds and hopefully making on both!

 

[hammer]

Yea i was thinkin of a long contract on GBP but was waiting for a pullback before i enter. Doesn't seem to want to pull back at the moment!

 

[hammer]

GBP looks like forming a triple bottom, maybe time for a long. Or even that long contract i've been thinking about.

If it is a triple bottom then target would be 1.9120.

 

[hammer]

IMO Looks like gbp and euro are forming bullish triangles, holding long at 1.9050 on gbp waiting for breakout.

 

[hammer]

Sorry my bad was actually a bearish triangle, flat bottom, declining top. Target 1.9000.

Which means i will be down 50 points, but im still gonna hold position with stop at 1.8995. If it goes past that i will take my 55 point loss and well ....

 

[User]

Are you in a spot contract, if not then hold on! It isn't going nowhere.

Note that euro pushed down 128 excatly, all the bulls came in and that is acting as a key-level now.

 

[Buk]

good theory in your comments Hammer, but careful about punting against the short term trend!....sorry I can't post a chart (technophobic till I get me heeed round it)...but from the high of today (9140), it's failed to take it out on a further attempt....on the 5 min chart you can also see another trend line down from the previous high (just after 7.00am) at 9125......it made a further attempt this p.m around 2.00 at 9085 to break thru, another failure (on the downtrend line) at 3.00pm at 9070....signs of cont'd profit taking/pullback.

9000 needs to hold here, otherwise we could see further retreating to 8865/50 support?!!........8985 will offer the first test of more downside (if it drops back) me finks!

 

[DaxTrader]

BUK - agree, trading counter trend chop tends to be very difficult, just like yesterday :-(

I have a cash 24hr EUR/Dollar cash chart up but trade off a futures chart which is 7am to 10 pm GMT

Looked at that way, today produced a classic gap up on the "open", then fill gap with a good trend move - pattern that shows up well in other non 24hr markets.

Does anyone else chart this way or notice that happening ?

 

[Buk]

any assistance with posting charts (Daily FX/Saxo) much appreciated!!!!....easier to explain the above post.