Euro/$---GBP/$ Where now?

[nickerson334]

Hi user

I bought at 800, selling half at 880 and other at 940. Stop at 770.

usdcad is on textbook H&s (1.3440 - 1.3220) breakdown.

 

[User]

Hi Nickerson, you bought at 800, the euro or the £?

So far abit flat I think the forex market is waiting for the release of the December trade report from the US.

If Its the euro you've bought then I personally wouldn't want to sell at 880, I believe when it reaches that near to the high it will take it out.

Goodluck.

 

[nickerson334]

Hi there, yeah euro. Target 940.

pullback at 900 very possible . Will defo sell if I see trend reversing at 900. 80 ticks for me is a 12% profit. Can always jump back in again at 915 if it looks like a breakout above the top.

What ranges do you trade? I look for 100 - 250 with minimum 3:1 P:L ratio.

I only trade flags, Double T's and Head and shoulders, using trendline's mainly for exit signals. Have been averaging 100 ticks per week for 6 months now.

Have been through a 101 differnt ideas and strategy tests but that suits me best so far.

Always open to testing out new ideas though!

What's your main plan?

 

[User]

I don't specifically use TA solely, lets just say I look at a little bit of everything.

I keep an eye on double tops and VTY's, ma's, fibonaci retracements, macd's, rsi etc etc etc (list is long) but for some reason I tend not to be specific to anything.

Psychology plays a major part: you could look at the same chart, draw the same interpretation lines, but have total different ideas from me. That’s what keeps markets moving.

I've used numerous strategies and for me TA, FA as I said before are participants in any move.

Examine all, listen to all and execute when you feel

The forex market as far as the euro is concerned, is in a high-risk zone which means although trend intact for move higher caution is warranted.

What do you trade Nickerson?

 

[nickerson334]

I'm thinking of ditching the euro for gbp. Seems more predictable and faster moving at mo.

 

[nickerson334]

I trade one of USDCHF / EURO / GBP at any one time and will get into a simultaneous USDCAD if there's one going.

Looks like we have a competley different approach. I only listen to myself and only examine specific criteria for trade entry.

Of course I'm always looking for new ideas to test!

What profit ranges do you look for?

 

[User]

Possibly, but its all about the dollar index declining not the other currencies rising :!:

Sterling definitely looks good to me at the moment,, but if you put a graph of the euro and the £ together then you'll no doubt see that both have obviously moved in different values but they have both copied each other near to a daily basis.

Now what does that tell us?

If the euro started running out of steam and started slipping down then would the £ continue rallying due to the rate increases that are no doubt happening?!

 

[nickerson334]

Although I find FA fascinating I'll wait 'til I have a degree in economics before i start trading it..




EDIT: You say that the Euro is in a "high risk zone".

Surley that depends on how you trade it? The Euro is never in a "high risk zone" as far as I'm concerned. Or is that an economix term that I havn't learn't to appreciate yet?

I must learn to spell also!

 

[User]

Yeh your right obviously depends on how you trade it, but if people buy or go long for long term positions/trends then it is definately a high risk zone as we are coming closer to expectations.

As we know anythings possible, nothing has 100% certainty only time will tell.

 

[nickerson334]

Sure, that's why I was asking you what ranges you trade. I'm pretty short term. Still though it's never high risk with a effectively researched strategy and money management program whatever term you're trading.

Sold up most of my Euro at 870 put a stop in for the rest at 848.
GBP I'm still in 100% trading the high tightflag to 1.9025.

USDCAD H&S is text book. I've taken some profit at +150 points and have the rest stopping out at the neckline.

Worth the 2 day quagmire that's for sure!

 

[User]

No No I don't trade long term, I trade both long term and short term, If I think something is in a long term bull market then I open long term contracts and short term contracts based on my techinical analysis.

Also trade with Bet On Markets when I clarify ranges etc

 

[nickerson334]

Sorry to have got your trading ranges so terribly wrong. Silly me. Must take a class in mind reading!!!

bought back in to GBP at longer term uptrend line at 857

EDIT Stopped out and reversed at 845. Stop 865. Targetting 700 minimum.

 

[User]

Got cashed out of Euro!
As mentioned before:

Bought Short term

Euro/$ 12822
Euro/$ at 12828
£/$ at 18883

Got cashed at 12845, you were right to short as the highs didnt get taken out(wish I had reversed when I got cashed out to)
Still not to bad I suppose managed to get a little gain of 23+17=40points overall.

On the the above sterling position cashed out at zero.

I've decided to keep long term sterlng position open as long term trend is there.

What a busy day, I'am still gratefull for the week bagged 244points overall.

You certainly smacked it on that short! I'am considering getting back in on long later on for next week. What you think Nickerson?

 

[nickerson334]

Yeah, not too sure what's happening at the moment. I didn't short the Euro or GBP on the drop. I just took profits when it started to pull back.

Euro 860, 840
GBP 950 and an 870 loss

So we're pretty much the same as my entry points were similar too. Got in a bit higher than you on GBP and a bit lower on EURO.

Wasn't expecting such a sharp drop though!

Did a few quick trades on GBP around 1.8850 to try to catch a rally or further sell off and broke even on those.

I think I'll sell of the GBP again now at 1.8860, viewing it as an inverse flag formation, a pullback consolidation pending a further sell of.

On a longer term basis, the lows on 30th Jan and 8th of Feb suggest a pullback to the 1.8600 - 1.8660 area

Target 1.8700. Stop at 1.8891

Although I think a break of 1.8890 tonight may see us all the way back to the top again.


p.s. I've managed a similar point gain too. Very rare for me to get a 200+ week. I'm normaly between 30 - 150.

 

[User]

We didnt do bad for a tough week! Didnt you hear the fundemental rumour that spooked the markets today?

ECB intervention-they sold the euro----rumour. ECB said 'no comment'

 

[money123]

whats the best instrument to speculate that usd will strenghthen against the pound within a couuple of years.
if i say for example had £10, 000 to invest what options do i have other than phsically transfering sterling into usd.?

thanks for any replies in advance

 

[User]

Wow!

If your thinking about a LONG term picture and is one that hasn’t got the time to trade daily/weekly/monthly trends then I wouldn't go trading or hedging the GBP vs. Dollar.
The thought has crossed my mind as well.

Firstly, when the American interest rate fiasco is cleared and when we know interest rates will rise the greenback will shooooooot up guaranteed and other currencies will tumble.

Now will the GBP start crumbling as rate rises according to my forecast will stand at 5.25% in 18 months. Uncertainty…….?….Yes there is!

Will the Euro crumble and the answer is YES!!!

So maybe you could trade June contracts on Euro/$ and buy the dollar index.

On the other hand maybe wait until March when more will be known and march contracts expire then trade the September contracts.

Secondly, are we going to see job growth? Don’t know! If so will the Dow go higher? Yes if investors see it as good news and no if they feel rates will then rise which will pressure further growth. If so then interest rate rises in the Greenback will come sooner rather then later.

The other factor is Presidential elections, the markets are being manipulated and rate rises, to put it simply, are avoided.

One last factor if people see a 0.25% rise just before the elections June/July then this can be interpreted as: America is recovering, but this would push indices a little lower as rates pressure further economic growth.

I’ am not sure myself as so many questions need answering?

Has anyone got more views on 'money123’ good question

*Hope that a helps.

 

[nickerson334]

Hi

How much of that are you prepared to risk?

Have you looked into options or spot trading.?

Try a demo account at SaxoBank.com or similar site.

You could also have an advised / managed account but be very careful who's advice you take and researh any company extremely well.

 

[User]

Money123, I looked into the idea of investing a US Trust, where you would decide what positions you, so you tell them.

The spreads are extremely tight, but I think you would get taxed in the region of 30% in the U.S and then you'll get capital gains tax when you bring it back to the UK. Not Sure, I've attached a UK tax document on foriegn investments, you may want to have a quick browse.

Personally spreadbetting in the UK is your best way, wait until march when you'll get abit more clarity. March contracts will expire and then September contracts will come into play.

Then just compound with your 10k.

 

[User]

Will the dollar decline further this week?

The following figures out next week:

US data: Industrial production, Philly Fed survey and CPI
which could prompt the dollar to renewed pressure.

Will the euro rise after the speculated rumour of 'intervention which took place on Friday'

All eyes on Trichet for Monday.

Technicals are suggesting a further pullback. Lets see.

I'am out of the euro for the while.

Long term position on sterling which is intact for long term target of 2.00