ES Trading

new_trader

Legendary member
6,181 1,258
Suckers dip

[edit]

Importantly(!) US interest rates and Crude Oil are rising and this is going to start having a real impact on the US economy. If this trend continues the US economy will go into recession...while going into an Election(?)


GC @ 1203.0
ES @ 2904.25

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-markets-tumble-us-stock-futures-point-to-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11

What’s driving the market?

In part, analysts have blamed a rise in long-dated Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.03% hit a more-than-seven year high above 3.26% early Tuesday. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions.

A rise in yields raises borrowing costs for corporations and investors, and has caused investors to take another look at equity valuations, which some have been saying are far too lofty. Equities also lose their allure when stacked up against higher rates for risk-free bonds. However, rising yields are also seen as a reflection of a strong economy, one that has been supported by a number of strong economic data points.

The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75







103,275
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,181 1,258
ES1950:Target Hit.


My figuring was 100% correct. Target hit. So much for all the Chicken Little dunces and their “Sell in May and go away” doctrine. The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!


This isn’t an official forecast but I’d say this market has another +50% to go before there is any major correction. There is a kind of hubris starting to develop...just as one would expect in an inflationary boom. Although I’m not posting much these days I still read posts on Trade2win. It’s important for me to keep in touch with how the ‘public’ is thinking!:LOL:




The psychopathic Central Planners continue their financial repression while trying to brainwash you into believing that inflation is good for you. By my reckoning the next financial crisis isn’t too far away, probably around 2016-2017, but it might just be possible for the insane and psychotic Central Planners to INFLATE-REPRESS-DENY for longer than even I can imagine. But make no mistake; the Central Planners have every intention of inflating their way out this predicament. So even when (if) they start to raise interest rates it will only be a token effort to make it look as if their over leveraged economies are stronger. They will raise rates so impossibly slowly, in absurdly tiny increments to ensure they are always a long way behind the inflation curve. Don’t expect to see any Gerald Ford style “Whip Inflation Now” campaigns...that is from a bygone era when Central Planners kept inflation to a minimum as opposed to today where they are doing the very opposite. The poor and low income earners will suffer, but they are disregarded. All that matters is the deflation bogeyman is destroyed.

I notice that all the retarded Socialists aren’t concerned about anything. The clueless imbeciles who claimed that Socialism bailed out Capitalism during the 2008 panic and then jumped on the “Occupy” bandwagon don’t see any problems with what the Central Planners have created. They are probably so stupid that they believe this is a real economic recovery made possible by the “Massive Advantage” a Central Bank has with control of the money supply.

They aren’t expressing any concerns about the grotesque distortions in the economy which are the direct result of Central Planner intervention since 2008 and prior! They are so clueless they actually believe the establishment media propaganda who tells them we are experiencing real economic growth rather than inflationary growth.

But when the next crisis comes they will be the ones screaming at the top of their voice that Capitalism got out of control and “greedy” bankers are to blame. They won’t tell us exactly when the Socialist Central Planners handed the economy over to Capitalism. Their trick is more of a “heads they win tails we lose” situation. They will try and convince you that when things appeared to be good, it was thanks to the policies of our Socialist Central Planners and things went wrong when they allowed Capitalism to take over.

But I know the truth and so should everyone who has been reading my journal. Unlike the last Financial Crisis where only a few understood what was really going on and accurately forecasted the crisis, everybody should see the next financial crisis coming. There are no excuses this time.

Trump has it mostly right. Although he should have written: "The only problem the world economies have are Central Bankers." and left it there.


105,596
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,181 1,258
This was a projection I made for the ES back in early January (07/01/2019)

2019ES_projection.png


Not bad considering where the ES is today (12/03/2019)

2019ES_today.png


This is the projection I made for GC...let's see how it works out!

GC_forecast.png




GC @ 1295.8
ES @ 2795.25

107,080