ES Trading

new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
Suckers dip

[edit]

Importantly(!) US interest rates and Crude Oil are rising and this is going to start having a real impact on the US economy. If this trend continues the US economy will go into recession...while going into an Election(?)


GC @ 1203.0
ES @ 2904.25

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-markets-tumble-us-stock-futures-point-to-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11

What’s driving the market?

In part, analysts have blamed a rise in long-dated Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.03% hit a more-than-seven year high above 3.26% early Tuesday. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions.

A rise in yields raises borrowing costs for corporations and investors, and has caused investors to take another look at equity valuations, which some have been saying are far too lofty. Equities also lose their allure when stacked up against higher rates for risk-free bonds. However, rising yields are also seen as a reflection of a strong economy, one that has been supported by a number of strong economic data points.

The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75







103,275
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
ES1950:Target Hit.


My figuring was 100% correct. Target hit. So much for all the Chicken Little dunces and their “Sell in May and go away” doctrine. The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!


This isn’t an official forecast but I’d say this market has another +50% to go before there is any major correction. There is a kind of hubris starting to develop...just as one would expect in an inflationary boom. Although I’m not posting much these days I still read posts on Trade2win. It’s important for me to keep in touch with how the ‘public’ is thinking!:LOL:




The psychopathic Central Planners continue their financial repression while trying to brainwash you into believing that inflation is good for you. By my reckoning the next financial crisis isn’t too far away, probably around 2016-2017, but it might just be possible for the insane and psychotic Central Planners to INFLATE-REPRESS-DENY for longer than even I can imagine. But make no mistake; the Central Planners have every intention of inflating their way out this predicament. So even when (if) they start to raise interest rates it will only be a token effort to make it look as if their over leveraged economies are stronger. They will raise rates so impossibly slowly, in absurdly tiny increments to ensure they are always a long way behind the inflation curve. Don’t expect to see any Gerald Ford style “Whip Inflation Now” campaigns...that is from a bygone era when Central Planners kept inflation to a minimum as opposed to today where they are doing the very opposite. The poor and low income earners will suffer, but they are disregarded. All that matters is the deflation bogeyman is destroyed.

I notice that all the retarded Socialists aren’t concerned about anything. The clueless imbeciles who claimed that Socialism bailed out Capitalism during the 2008 panic and then jumped on the “Occupy” bandwagon don’t see any problems with what the Central Planners have created. They are probably so stupid that they believe this is a real economic recovery made possible by the “Massive Advantage” a Central Bank has with control of the money supply.

They aren’t expressing any concerns about the grotesque distortions in the economy which are the direct result of Central Planner intervention since 2008 and prior! They are so clueless they actually believe the establishment media propaganda who tells them we are experiencing real economic growth rather than inflationary growth.

But when the next crisis comes they will be the ones screaming at the top of their voice that Capitalism got out of control and “greedy” bankers are to blame. They won’t tell us exactly when the Socialist Central Planners handed the economy over to Capitalism. Their trick is more of a “heads they win tails we lose” situation. They will try and convince you that when things appeared to be good, it was thanks to the policies of our Socialist Central Planners and things went wrong when they allowed Capitalism to take over.

But I know the truth and so should everyone who has been reading my journal. Unlike the last Financial Crisis where only a few understood what was really going on and accurately forecasted the crisis, everybody should see the next financial crisis coming. There are no excuses this time.

Trump has it mostly right. Although he should have written: "The only problem the world economies have are Central Bankers." and left it there.


105,596
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
This was a projection I made for the ES back in early January (07/01/2019)

2019ES_projection.png


Not bad considering where the ES is today (12/03/2019)

2019ES_today.png


This is the projection I made for GC...let's see how it works out!

GC_forecast.png




GC @ 1295.8
ES @ 2795.25

107,080
 
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new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
Suckers dip

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-markets-tumble-us-stock-futures-point-to-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11


The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75
It's all happening! The ES has hit the '3' handle for the first time, closing at 3001.00 and how goes the ES, how goes gold!
Before this new gold bull market is over gold will hit US$3000oz...guaranteed. My advice, don't be like the average Trade2Win member who only gets giddy about an asset when it starts making all-time highs.
You're welcome.

GC @ 1421.5
ES @ 3001.00




108,896
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
Re: Gold

The time for silly talk, pretty coloured lines and magic round numbers is over. I'm going to start buying physical gold next week. I'll begin with 1 ounce and will double down with every $US100 price drop. $100/ounce is neither here nor there when looking at the big picture.

The simple case for gold: Deflation is the bogeyman that Central Planners all around the world use to justify their inflationary policies. The mainstream Anal-ists are telling us that the price of gold is falling because there is no inflation, which is utter B.S. They refer to inflation as being the Government fudged CPI figures that only a dimwit would believe. But US Treasuries don't lie...unless it is the Central Planners doing the buying with money created out of thin air. The U.S FED is in a dilemma and gold will ultimately reveal the truth.

All the Technical Anal-ists are pointing to US$1000 being the target price for gold because it is a sexy round number, but none of them can explain why $2000 wasn't sexy enough in 2011...go figure...:rolleyes:

While I don't doubt that $1000 can be hit, or $900 or even $800...I'm not trying to pick the bottom with gold. I am buying as much as I can afford before it makes its inevitable ascent to $US2000 and beyond. I have a goal of owning a certain number of ounces and I am nowhere near that goal because the price took off in 2011.

Gold is going to be my "Jesse Livermore" trade...I will either go bankrupt or make a killing...although I'm not using any margin, I'm buying outright...


As always: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!


24,886

Approx 5 years later I reached that goal and made my last purchase of physical gold in December 2018. I am now Long 203oz physical gold, owned outright in safe storage. I am still adding to my physical silver position [currently 2020oz]. In addition to this I own derivatives and stocks related to gold. I will only add to my physical gold position if it dips below $US1300


GC @ 1401.2
ES @ 2991.75



109,746
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
This post from deadbroke fibo_trader is getting locked in my MONKEY CAGE for all to see. Nobody goes against new_trader and thinks they can escape accountability.

Tuesday August 20th, 2019 at 7:27 PM

Gold:

Small traders (T2W and ET and such) together with Large speculators are always on the wrong side of major epic junctures. they are always opposite of the Commercial Hedgers.


New_Trader can buy again at $700. Now watch the outright anger that Fibo could make such a statement - that Gold is going to $700 over the next several months and that that would be THE PLACE TO BUY BIG-TIME. Now is not the time to buy, its the time to be unloading = selling. Waiting for the next trendline if any, otherwise there ought to be fireworkds when we get to 61.8% at 1582

To be released from my MONKEY CAGE:

Gold price MUST fall to USD700 over the next several months. Since 'several' is not exact, I will give deadbroke fibo_trader until the end of 2019 for the fall to USD700. If gold never falls to USD700 by the end of 2019 then the above post from deadbroke fibo_trader will stay in my MONKEY CAGE, where it belongs!

several (determiner)
Consisting of a number more than two but not very many; diverse.



GC @ 1536.9
ES @ 2851.50


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new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
Your Honor, pls add this gent to the list of T2W untouchables who achieved this lofty status by not trading live

Violet (counter-violent), malaguti, barjon, tomorten, timsk, Signalcalc, batsonar, Rufus_Leakey, postman, Atilla, Nowler, Dentalfloss, Pat494, new_trader, Dowser, postman

Since NVP brought up Mike Tyson, this is how a fight between any of these untouchables and Mike Tyson would go down. And here's the kicker: a fight between Mike Tyson and Mr. Financial Market would go down even faster with Tyson as the loser EVERY DAMN TIME
Questioning my trading ability is one thing but making a slur about my trading integrity has earned deadbroke fibo_trader an early lock-up in my monkey cage, never to be released.

270407


GOLD
As far as this post about Gold falling to USD700 before the end of 2019 is concerned. It still stands. I have something else planned for deadbroke fibo_trader if Gold never hits USD700 by the end of 2019. deadbroke fibo_trader is shit-scared about that call because he has changed the timeframe from several months to several years...too bad deadbroke fibo_trader, you aren't getting an extension from me...here have some peanuts and keep shitposting, it's very entertaining.

Appeal to the mods: DON'T ban deadbroke fibo_trader, ever. I haven't finished yet.


GC @ 1468.7
ES @ 3119.00


114,057
 

new_trader

Legendary member
6,232 1,285
Suckers dip

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-markets-tumble-us-stock-futures-point-to-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11

The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75
Wall Street is getting very bullish as stocks hit records. Here’s why that’s worrisome
Wall Street is getting very bullish as stocks hit records. Here’s why that’s worrisome

As the S&P 500 has broken out of its trading range into record highs, euphoria has been growing — fast.
Way back in October 2018 new_trader warned it was a sucker's dip and that stocks will rally to new highs. Meanwhile shitposters were calling a bear market and going short :ROFLMAO:

This is why new_trader makes money and shitposters are deadbroke!



GC @ 1460.7
ES @ 3124.00




114,161
 

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