ES Trading

[new_trader]

Clueless Central Planners

Carney Says No Immediate Need for BOE to Increase Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/carney-sees-no-need-for-boe-rate-increase-bbc-reports.html




Translation: Carney will keep taking stabs in the dark and moving the goalposts in the hope that "something" good miraculously happens.

Carney Renews BOE Low-Rate Pledge to Fight Slack
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...h-renewed-pledge-to-keep-record-low-rate.html

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney underscored his pledge to keep interest rates at a record low in a recasting of forward guidance to combat persisting slack in the British economy.

Yet more evidence that Central Planners HAVEN'T GOT A CLUE what they are doing. *LOL* @ all the modern economists in this forum who think Central Planners having control of the money supply is a massive advantage...

If Central Planners were traders they would have blown their accounts a number of times by now and they would be here asking people for a system that works

Actually, why am I saying 'if'...these disgusting sub-humans HAVE blown their accounts, the U.K is broke!





32,572

 

[new_trader]

Great Post choices

Another post from SOCRATES. Highlights are mine.

There is nothing to beat the idea of keeping charts by hand. In the very early seventies I kept two assiduously maintained point and figure chart books on squared paper that I have lying around somewhere to this day. It involved a lot of effort. To persist in drawing charts by hand is a very valuable exercise for any trader. It eventually gives a "grip" that computer generated charts cannot match.

There are people who say they have tried "everything" and still can't make money but I am willing to bet they have never tried this. I would also bet they never will try it. The word "effort" is enough to put the majority off doing anything!

Try it. Turn off your TV, shut down your 'NEWS' feeds, close all of your charts and try doing what SOCRATES suggests for a month. You only need one uncluttered screen, one instrument and one of it's values - the last price...and a lot of concentration!

I already know you won't do it. I know you won't because it is hard, mentally exhausting work and you are in this forum looking for a trading 'system' that will make you rich with minimal effort. Be honest with yourself, you simply haven't got what it takes.







32,610

 

[new_trader]

Great Post choices

Another post from SOCRATES who spent a lot of time and effort highlighting the importance of using stops. Most traders seem to spend a lot of time and effort trying to find a way of avoiding the use of TIGHT stops. This is why they fail.

Highlights are mine.

This is a very important concept.

The first stage is wide stops.

The second stage is losses greater than would be an acceptable norm.

The third stage is deepening losses and emotional pressure created by them.

The fourth stage is dereliction.

The fifth stage is desperate serial trading in an attempt to recover these serious losses.

The sixth stage is inevitable wipeout.

All of these psychological and trading difficulties emanate again from not controlling losses, from the very beginning by not being attentive to the dangers of using wide stops.

I cannot understand why there is resistance to using the tightest stops possible.

Actually using wide stops leaves the trader open to being unfavourably stimulated in this way.

You must teach yourself to learn that losses (controlled losses) are a fact of trading life until you are able to evolve and these become more and more sporadic as your proficiency in picking winners improves and finally perfects.

You must teach yourself to learn that using tight stops are crucial to preserving capital, not only when you are a beginner, but right through in your personal development as a trader, through intermediate, advanced, and expert.

These are the costs of doing business. You have to view them professionally, and not unprofessionally if you want to ultimately succeed because you are competing with professionals in a professional environment.

Consider the costermonger fruiterer in a street market.

He is delivered a consignment of apples.

He now tips them onto his 'barrow ready to be sold.

What does he do before he sells them?

He unhesitatingly picks out all the ones that are not up to scratch and throws them in the gutter. He does this because he cannot risk the bad ones contaminating the good ones and ruining his stock.

He does not get emotional about it. He may mutter or grumble. But he does it.

He does it because for him it is necessary to do it. He knows he has to do it as a consequence of his experience. He also knows that if he does not do it constitutes dereliction.

Dereliction comes in various guises, it is a virus that no trader can afford to become contaminated with whether the product is apples or tradeable instruments of any sort.

32,740

 

[new_trader]

Bloomberg word/phrase of 2014

Janet Yellen speaks today and I tell you the suspense is killing me! I can’t wait to find out which word or phrase Bloomberg is going to latch on to and make it their word/phrase of the year!

In 2013 it was “Taper” and my favourite “as some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value”.

IMO: The following are likely contenders for Bloomberg’s word/phrase of 2014

• Disinflation concerns
• Deflation fears
• Protect the recovery
• Avoid recession
• Reassess planned path

Deflation Threat Unsettles G-20 Roiled by Emerging Market
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...es-g-20-roiled-by-emerging-market-losses.html

Weaker growth from Brazil to South Africa risks unleashing a “disinflationary impulse through the global economy,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Cheaper commodities, slower trade and sliding exchange rates in developing markets all could soften price pressures internationally.

That in turn could force Federal Reserve Chair Yellen and European Central Bank President Draghi to keep monetary policy loose for longer, increasing the attractiveness of their financial assets even at the threat of creating asset bubbles.

“There’s a fair bit of disinflationary pressure out there globally,” Hanson said. “There’s a lot of excess capacity.”

32,779

 

[new_trader]

FX trading

FX Traders Facing Extinction as Computers Replace Humans
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...g-extinction-as-computers-replace-humans.html

“Foreign-exchange traders are much like stock floor traders: a rapidly dying breed,” said Charles Geisst, author of “Wall Street: A History” and a finance professor at Manhattan College in Riverdale, New York. “Once the banks realize they are costing them money, the positions will dwindle quickly.”

Good riddance too! I'm tired of reading posts from pussies who keep blaming dastardly Algo's for their losses, kinell.








32,834

 

[new_trader]

Example of a Bubble

How long will it be before Governments outlaw Bitcoin?

Bitcoin: the fastest growing currency in the world - video

Bitcoin: the fastest growing currency in the world - video | Technology | guardian.co.uk


A modern day example of TRUE FREE-MARKET MONEY. Absolutely no legal tender laws yet it is accepted worldwide for transactions.

Bitcoin followed the blueprint of a bubble. It went from virtual obscurity to mainstream and the price followed it all the way, 100's X price gain followed by a greater than 50% price collapse in under 12 months...THAT is a bubble. I don't recall anyone at Trade2win discussing Bitcoin before I mentioned it in my journal. But then, slowly and surely, as the price and mainstream exposure rose, so did the number of threads, and not long after that the bubble burst...Good ol' Trade2win aye...the best indicator one can find

When all the 'Johnnies-come-lately' in Trade2win start talking about how clever they are buying gold, which won't happen until the television tells them gold is skyrocketing (such is the timid nature of Trade2win 'Traders')...that is when I will sell. In the meantime I continue to lift my skirt, grab my balls and stack! .:cheesy:








33,083

 

[new_trader]

Going up!

S&P 500 Has Longest Weekly Drop Since 2012 as Fed Cuts QE
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...st-weekly-drop-since-2012-as-fed-cuts-qe.html




I am still watching what develops as this is reminiscent of the market action around Feb 2007, but the big collapse came many months later so I am sticking with my target of ES@1950.


Janet Yellen upping the Q.E again me thinks! What an absolute disaster the Central Planners have created...You can't print your way to prosperity, just ask President Robert Mugabe.

Nothing has been fixed...just more debt and Malinvestment has been added to struggling economies...Keynesians




ES @ 1777.00
GC @ 1245.6

Stock markets making new highs, gold going up...looks like my figuring is right. I think both are saying that the US FED is going to cancel the Q.E Taper sooner or later and I expect sooner rather than later.

Lift 2,3,4, Grab 2,3,4, Stack 2,3,4!

15:49

ES @ 1851.00
GC @ 1336.7





33,123

 

[new_trader]

Deflation bogeyman

Draghi: ECB Prepared to Add Stimulus on Deflation Risks
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...to-act-if-inflation-outlook-deteriorates.html

“We don’t have any evidence of people postponing their expenditure plans with a view to buying the same thing at lower prices, in other words we don’t see what is defined to be deflation,” Draghi said after a Group of 20 meeting in Sydney yesterday. “We are aware of the risks. The Governing Council is willing and ready to take any action in case these risks were to gain strength.”

• Hands up all those who won’t be using electricity now because they think it will be cheaper next year!
  
• Hands up all those who won’t be eating until next year because they think food prices will be lower!
  
• Hands up all those who won’t be driving until next year because they think petrol will be cheaper.
  
• Hands up all those who won’t be upgrading their smartphones until prices for them stop falling!
  
• Hands up all those won’t be buying any new clothes because they are too affordable now and will wait until prices start rising again.

Insufferably repulsive, untrustworthy, lying, disingenuous scumbag Central Planner!

GOVERNMENTS CREATE INFLATION BECAUSE THEY ARE THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES, along with the investment class and politically connected.

The rest of society, i.e.: the mums and dads, the working class, the poor, the fixed income earners, ALL SUFFER THE RAVAGES OF INFLATION.

Don't be fooled by the Central Planner rhetoric. They want to keep you ignorant and compliant...You are nothing but a DOCILE working mule to them.






33,172

 

[new_trader]

Weakening data?

Stock markets making new highs, gold going up...looks like my figuring is right. I think both are saying that the US FED is going to cancel the Q.E Taper sooner or later and I expect sooner rather than later.

Lift 2,3,4, Grab 2,3,4, Stack 2,3,4!

15:49

ES @ 1851.00
GC @ 1336.7

S&P 500 Extends Record as Treasuries Drop on Economy Data
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-ukraine-as-s-p-500-rises-to-record-high.html

Yellen Comments

The S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent to a record yesterday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank may change its strategy for reducing asset purchases should the economy weaken. The gauge has climbed 4.3 percent this month, the most since October, as investors speculated that severe winter weather explains the weakness in reports such as housing and hiring.

Yak...yak...yak...

C'mon Yellen, lift your skirt, grab your balls and cancel the taper...you know you want to!





33,297

 

[new_trader]

Do it yourself!

When it comes to the stock market, one of the best investments I made was teaching myself how to program. I am now fairly proficient at programming in Visual Basic, VBA and C#. My code might not be as elegant or efficient as a professional programmer’s code and it might take me 10 times as long to develop and debug, but I still end up with a functional and useful Application that does exactly what I want and need. Nothing beats ‘hands on’ data analysis.





33,318

 

[new_trader]

Deflation bogeyman

Draghi: ECB Prepared to Add Stimulus on Deflation Risks
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...to-act-if-inflation-outlook-deteriorates.html

• Hands up all those who won’t be using electricity now because they think it will be cheaper next year!
  
• Hands up all those who won’t be eating until next year because they think food prices will be lower!
  
• Hands up all those who won’t be driving until next year because they think petrol will be cheaper.
  
• Hands up all those who won’t be upgrading their smartphones until prices for them stop falling!
  
• Hands up all those won’t be buying any new clothes because they are too affordable now and will wait until prices start rising again.

Insufferably repulsive, untrustworthy, lying, disingenuous scumbag Central Planner!

GOVERNMENTS CREATE INFLATION BECAUSE THEY ARE THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES, along with the investment class and politically connected.

The rest of society, i.e.: the mums and dads, the working class, the poor, the fixed income earners, ALL SUFFER THE RAVAGES OF INFLATION.

Don't be fooled by the Central Planner rhetoric. They want to keep you ignorant and compliant...You are nothing but a DOCILE working mule to them.

WARNING: The following video is NOT SUITABLE for Government apologists and modern economists.

33,387

 

[new_trader]

Inflate,Repress,Deny

ECB Keeps Interest Rates on Hold as Draghi Gets Reprieve
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...as-economic-signals-hand-draghi-reprieve.html

BOE Extends Stimulus to Sixth Year Underpinning Revival
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...d-low-rates-into-a-sixth-year-u-k-credit.html


INFLATE - REPRESS - DENY will be the Central Planner theme for 2014 and probably beyond.

• INFLATE the money supply¹
• REPRESS interest rates to an artificially low level
• DENY the existence of asset bubbles or rising CPI

The ECB, the BOE, The FED, The BOJ, The BOC, The RBA, and all other currency debauchers around the world each take turns in talking down their currency to “boost exports” while talking up the threat of deflation and continue to deny the existence of price inflation and asset bubbles.



new_trader will continue to lift, grab, stack.


ES @ 1875.75
GC @ 1336.4





33,578

 

[new_trader]

Told you so!

ECB Keeps Interest Rates on Hold as Draghi Gets Reprieve
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...as-economic-signals-hand-draghi-reprieve.html

BOE Extends Stimulus to Sixth Year Underpinning Revival
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...d-low-rates-into-a-sixth-year-u-k-credit.html


INFLATE - REPRESS - DENY will be the Central Planner theme for 2014 and probably beyond.

• INFLATE the money supply¹
• REPRESS interest rates to an artificially low level
• DENY the existence of asset bubbles or rising CPI

The ECB, the BOE, The FED, The BOJ, The BOC, The RBA, and all other currency debauchers around the world each take turns in talking down their currency to “boost exports” while talking up the threat of deflation and continue to deny the existence of price inflation and asset bubbles.



new_trader will continue to lift, grab, stack.


ES @ 1875.75
GC @ 1336.4

Aussie Is Near Three-Month High as RBA Has Only Words Left
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...only-choice-as-data-surprises-drive-gain.html

Stepping up verbal intervention may be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s only option to curb the Aussie as strengthening economic data and a neutral policy stance drive the currency toward a three-month high.

“The RBA has boxed itself in now since ramping up verbal intervention after the August cut,” said Annette Beacher, head of Asia-Pacific research at TD Securities Inc. in Singapore. “If they don’t talk it down, it will go to the moon.”

Told you so

Central Planners are so predictable...

INFLATE - REPRESS - DENY​

LIFT - GRAB - STACK

ES @ 1879.25
GC @ 1349.2






33,626

 

[new_trader]

Sheeple!

It never ceases to amaze me how easily the mainstream media manipulates T2W trader’s sentiment. There are so called traders here that have 5+ year’s experience (judging by their join dates) that seem to have learned nothing at all about the stock market in that time. Their attitude is no different to that of average sheeple. Do people actually believe that markets are being influenced by what is going on in the Ukraine? Really?

Crimea Base Incident Shows Danger of Ukraine Escalation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ident-shows-danger-of-ukraine-escalation.html

Bloomberg writes:

The vote, which Ukraine’s new leaders and Western powers consider illegal and unconstitutional, heightens tensions in the worst dispute between Russia and the west since the Cold War.

Think about that. The WORST dispute since the Cold War and yet the stock markets are still hovering around all time highs whereas gold sells off! Does that make any sense at all? As little as 3 weeks ago the ES was below 1800. If this Ukraine nonsense was a serious as suggested I would have expected the markets to sell off to at least that level...you know, before most dunces had even heard of Crimea.

What about gold? The former Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan began on December 24, 1979 and you can see below the effect it had on the price of gold. On the 24/12/1979 the price was $473.10/Oz and less than 1 month later on 21/01/1980 it reached around $850.00/Oz and marked the top of the bubble. This current “crisis” is supposedly the worst since the cold war and gold languishes near the lows of the bear market. Gold soared during the supposed Syrian crisis but now, with tensions between NUCLEAR POWERS at the highest level in 30 years gold couldn’t care less?!

Gold Price after former Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan

Looking at figure chart below, if the market sells off down to (or through) the low 1840’s level the mainstream media will say it’s because of all the scary stuff happening between Russia and the West. If the market breaks out of the high 1880’s the mainstream media will say it’s because all the scary stuff happening between Russia and the West isn’t scary anymore and the Global nuclear catastrophe that threatened to send us all back into the dark ages isn’t going to happen now. Woo-hoo!

My advice is to IGNORE ALL NEWS completely...that’s right. Turn off the television, close all your NEWS feeds and study the action of the market itself for clues as to what is going to happen next. Trust me, your profits will be much greater if you did that.

new_trader proprietary Figure Chart.

ES @ 1876.75
GC @ 1339.5




33,685

 

[new_trader]

Inflate, Repress,Deny

Global Debt Exceeds $100 Trillion as Governments Binge, BIS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...0-trillion-as-governments-binge-bis-says.html

The amount of debt globally has soared more than 40 percent to $100 trillion since the first signs of the financial crisis as governments borrowed to pull their economies out of recession and companies took advantage of record low interest rates, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

Borrowing has soared as central banks suppress benchmark interest rates to spur growth after the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy sent the world into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Yields on all types of bonds, from governments to corporates and mortgages, average about 2 percent, down from more than 4.8 percent in 2007, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index.

“Given the significant expansion in government spending in recent years, governments (including central, state and local governments) have been the largest debt issuers,” according to Branimir Gruic, an analyst, and Andreas Schrimpf, an economist at the BIS. The organization is owned by 60 central banks and hosts the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of regulators and central bankers that sets global capital standards.

Governments have been the biggest spenders and biggest debt issuers...and who benefits most from inflation? You guessed it, debtors.

INFLATE - REPRESS - DENY​

33,765

 

[new_trader]

The art of trading...and war!

I felt like I was the only one in the world who hasn’t read Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War”. So I purchased the Kindle version from Amazon for only £0.49...what a bargain! (Capitalism is great when Governments don’t interfere with it).

The Art Of War - Kindle

Now I will be able to use Sun Tzu quotes to create analogies between War and Trading just like all the other Lambo driving legends in this forum...Look out!


On another note:

Someone asked me if I have tried using 'R' for data analysis. At first I thought it was a typo so I searched for 'R' and to my astonishment I learn it is a programming language! Kinell :-0

http://www.r-project.org/

I won't be using it though. Between Excel and C# I have everything I need. I don't have the time or enthusiasm to try and learn a new language...as Sun Tzu says, "In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns."

War is exactly like object-oriented programming and trading, and winning.





33,790

 

[new_trader]

No discipline, No Pride

YAK-YAK-YAK
Guess Who is Back!

33,885

 

[new_trader]

Ignore the NEWS

looking at figure chart below, if the market sells off down to (or through) the low 1840’s level the mainstream media will say it’s because of all the scary stuff happening between russia and the west. If the market breaks out of the high 1880’s the mainstream media will say it’s because all the scary stuff happening between russia and the west isn’t scary anymore and the global nuclear catastrophe that threatened to send us all back into the dark ages isn’t going to happen now. Woo-hoo!

My advice is to ignore all news completely...that’s right. Turn off the television, close all your news feeds and study the action of the market itself for clues as to what is going to happen next. Trust me, your profits will be much greater if you did that.

New_trader proprietary figure chart.

es @ 1876.75
gc @ 1339.5

Following on from last week: It has now become clear that the market has been pushed down into the low 1840's, most likely for further accumulation. This is looking at the ESH contract which expires next Friday. The rollover period, which is this week, sometimes make figuring a little trickier. I wouldn't be surprised if the market ranges around the low 1840's for the rest of today. The market action next week will most likely provide the clue for the next big move, which IMO will be UP (Target for ES is still @ 1950)!

This has ZERO to do with the Ukraine...or NFP or the FED meeting next week etc...etc...

new_trader proprietary figure chart.

As always: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!​

ESH4 @ 1845.50
GC @ 1375.0




34,054

 

[new_trader]

Another Central Planner Bubble!

London Powers U.K. House-Price Growth to Fastest for 21 Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...se-price-growth-to-fastest-for-21-months.html


Help to Buy

A separate report today underlines the impact of Help to Buy, a Treasury program that allows people to buy a home with a down payment of as little as 5 percent.

Banks offered 11,138 loans to homebuyers with a down payment of less than 15 percent in February, up 74 percent from a year earlier and the most since April 2008, e.surv said. The average loan covered 63.5 percent of the purchase, the highest ratio since the onset of the financial crisis in August 2007.

“Banks are far more willing to lend to borrowers with a limited savings pot,” Sexton said. “New buyers are keen to get on the ladder before house prices rise beyond their reach, and they are utilizing the Help to Buy scheme to get an initial foothold.”



Fiat money for everyone!

34,057

 

[new_trader]

Terrifying!

Biggest Stock Market Drop in Month Awakens Haven Trades
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...arket-drop-in-month-awakens-haven-trades.html

Record prices for U.S. stocks are pushing up demand for protection as Ukrainian tensions rise and data on everything from China’s industrial production to its retail sales show weakening growth. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) erased its gain for the year yesterday, falling 1.2 percent for the biggest retreat since Feb. 3, and gold reached a six-month high.

Gold reaches a six-month high? After you told everyone to sell gold because it is the worst thing they could own now that the FED is going to taper their Q.E program?

“The key risk we’re focused on is ultimately Ukraine,” Jason Benowitz, a senior portfolio manager who helps oversee about $4.7 billion at Roosevelt Investment Group Inc. in New York, said in a phone interview. “To the extent this could lead to either material economic sanctions or in fact armed conflict, either of these will certainly be headwinds.”

OMG, is the Ukraine thing even scarier than the FED taper and deflation? :-0

“There has been flight to quality because of emerging-market issues and political tensions,” James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said by phone from Minneapolis. His firm oversees about $360 billion. “Whenever something worries you, buy gold.”

Really? After you repeatedly reported that "investors lost faith in gold as a store of value"?

Think about how utterly moronic and retarded this statement is: "Whenever something worries you, buy gold".


It is only clueless, left leaning, brain-dead, socialist dimwits who believe that gibberish.

Think of the following analogy:

There are people who believe that seatbelts save lives, call them Group A, and there are people who believe they don’t, call them Group B. The Group A people will always wear a seatbelt when driving and the Group B people will never wear a seatbelt when driving. Do you know of anyone who only wears a seatbelt if “something worries them”? Think of how utterly retarded that is

A person gets in their car, puts on the seatbelt and starts driving. About 10 minutes into the journey, they take the seatbelt off because there isn’t anything around that worries them. Suddenly, up ahead, they see a car coming the other way and they get worried again because they aren’t quite sure if it is being driven by a drunk driver who will suddenly swerve into them, so they put the seatbelt back on until the car safely passes them. They take the seatbelt off but 2 miles ahead there is an intersection which worries them, so the seatbelt is on again. They pass the intersection, the road looks safe and so the seatbelt is off. 1 mile later there is a roundabout which worries them, seatbelt is on, road is clear, seatbelt off, car approaches from behind, seatbelt on, car passes safely, seatbelt off...


ESH @ 1843.50
GC @ 1385.4






34,073