ES Trading

Socialism always fails

Hollande Pro-Business Turn Has Companies Saying Show Me
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...siness-turn-has-companies-saying-show-me.html

French President Francois Hollande may be changing his political spots.

The Socialist leader’s plans to cut costs for companies prompted headlines in French newspapers last week questioning whether Hollande, who once famously said finance was his “greatest adversary,” is turning into a pro-business reformer. Le Monde said “Socialist or Freemarketeer: Inquiry Into the Hollande Doctrine,” Le Journal du Dimanche pondered on the “Reasons for the About-Face,” and Le Figaro declared “The President is Turning Against the Current.”

Faced with a sluggish economy that has barely grown in two years and unemployment at a 16-year high, Hollande floated the possibility of lower taxes and cuts in public spending in his Dec. 31 speech to the nation. Business leaders, who’ve had to deal with mounting levies and zigzagging polices, are saying: show me. They want to see concrete measures from Hollande when he holds one of his twice-yearly press conferences tomorrow.


Socialism fails again. :LOL:








31,294
 
Speculators blamed again!

EU Lawmakers Seal Deal on Financial Market Rules Overhaul
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-deal-on-financial-market-rules-overhaul.html

The rules for commodity derivatives include an “effective system” of position limits that will “curb speculation and help decrease price volatility and inflation,” Arlene McCarthy, a U.K. lawmaker in the parliament’s Socialist group, said in an e-mailed statement.

‘Food Prices’

High and volatile food prices have a devastating impact” on poorer countries, she said.

Under the accord, it will fall to the European Securities and Markets Authority, an EU agency based in Paris, to provide guidance to regulators on how the position limits should be calculated.

The deal “marks a good start in tackling ‘gambling’ on food prices which are a matter of life and death to millions in the developing world,” Marc Olivier Herman, Oxfam’s EU policy adviser, said in a statement. “The agreement introduces limits on speculating in spite of attempts by the U.K. and other governments to block any meaningful reform.”


Only a socialist could believe this utter nonsense. During the Panic of 2008, speculators (short sellers in particular) were blamed for causing panic by artificially driving bank share prices down. However, when it comes to food prices, speculators (according to these left wing retards), only drive prices up. Are these lunatics serious? Have they even looked at a price chart for soft commodities?

I thought these dumbasses fear deflation more than anything else. According to their typical idiotic Keynesian rhetoric, speculators should be regarded as heroes for driving up food prices in poor countries. Surely what is good for us must be good for poor countries. Why don’t they consider ‘gambling’ on food prices as a stimulus? The reason is simple: INFLATION IS DEVASTATING WHEREVER IT IS. But these politicians desperately need a scapegoat for their inflationary policies, and who else better to blame but ‘speculators’, one of the most hated groups of the ignorant and ill-informed voting public.


The rules on high-frequency trading, which include a so-called tick size regime limiting the minimum size of price movements on financial markets, will “slow down the pace of trading, increase transparency and ensure prices reflect current market conditions,” McCarthy said.


Oh no! The dastardly high-frequency trading:-0:LOL:

Too bad for the clueless whining dim-witted t2w tarders, now they have to find something/someone else to blame for their losses...:LOL:









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Last edited:
OMG! It's the deflation ogre!

I thought these dumbasses fear deflation more than anything else.


Lagarde Warns Officials to Fight Deflation ‘Ogre’ Decisively
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...cials-to-fight-deflation-ogre-decisively.html

“If inflation is the genie, then deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively,” she said.

Will someone please think of the children! :-0

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31,420
 
Americans celebrate!

Cost of Living in U.S. Increases by Most in Six Months
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-rose-in-december-by-most-in-six-months.html

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, who has supported record stimulus, said Jan. 15 that the central bank’s slowdown should be seen as a shift in emphasis toward keeping interest rates near zero for a longer time -- partly because of still-low price pressures.

“We will not prematurely reduce accommodation in an economy with elevated unemployment and very low inflation pressures,” Evans said. The U.S. added 74,000 jobs last month, fewer than the most pessimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey, a Labor Department report showed Jan. 10.


Hooray! It costs more to live! :clap::clap:

Everyone ought to be proud of the US Central planners, especially the poor and low income earners...remember this as you struggle to make ends meet: Don't thank greedy corporations or heartless speculators, they don't deserve any of the credit. All the thanks must go to the money printing heroes at the Central bank.







31,443
 
Reality

Shell Surprise Shows Profit Squeeze Even at $100 Crude
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-18/shell-surprise-shows-profit-squeeze-even-at-100-crude.html

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA)’s surprise announcement yesterday that fourth-quarter earnings would fall to the lowest since 2009 showed the rising cost of developing new fields has cut into profit. While Brent oil prices have spent three straight years above $100 a barrel, getting crude out of the ground is only getting more expensive.


Shell saw the cost of finding and developing oil fields triple from 2003 to 2012, in line with the 12 largest European oil producers, data compiled by Bloomberg Industries show. The Hague-based company has ramped up spending to build liquefied natural gas plants in Australia and develop fields in Brazil and the U.S.


But the Central Planners will tell you there is no inflation...only the persistent threat of Deflation which would bring about economic disaster of Biblical proportions...OMG!:-0


WARNING: The following contains images which may upset some viewers.

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31,546
 
E.s 2014[04]

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This is how the market played out in week 3 (new_trader proprietary figure chart) which was largely in line with what I was expecting. If my figuring is correct the action will continue into week 4 which is a shortened trading week (Monday: US Holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day). Apart from Jobless claims on Thursday, the week is fairly quiet as far as economic NEWS is concerned (unforeseen geopolitical events and natural disasters excluded).

Week 5 is the big week as far as economic NEWS is concerned. I anticipate that is when the market will make a major advance which is a break above 1846. I remain bullish until the 1950 target is hit or until the market makes it abundantly clear that my figuring is wrong. IMO: Week 5 is the key.

NB: I do not trade ‘The NEWS’ nor do I pay any attention to the reports. I am just aware that the market uses them as reason to move in the direction it was going to move anyway. It is the mainstream media and trade2win members who ascribe market movements to NEWS.

As always: I could be completely wrong so DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.








31,598
 
Clueless Central Planners

Carney Says No Immediate Need for BOE to Increase Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/carney-sees-no-need-for-boe-rate-increase-bbc-reports.html

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said there’s “no immediate need” to increase borrowing costs and indicated a debate has begun on forward guidance after U.K. unemployment fell faster than anticipated.


Translation: Carney will keep taking stabs in the dark and moving the goalposts in the hope that "something" good miraculously happens.






31,774
 
Inflation

Argentina Seen Extending World’s Biggest Currency Decline
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...tending-world-s-biggest-currency-decline.html


Annual inflation quickened to 28.4 percent in December, according to private estimates published by opposition lawmakers. Inflation was 11 percent, according to the government, which plans to introduce a new index next month after being censured by the International Monetary Fund for misreporting economic data.

Annual inflation was 28.4% according to private estimates.
Inflation was 11 percent, according to the government

What? The Government lied about inflation? :-0

:LOL::LOL:






31,790
 
Our Central Planners Dream!

Argentine Stores Mark Up Fridges to Wine After Peso Devaluation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...p-fridges-to-wine-after-peso-devaluation.html

“The fridge is assembled in Argentina, but all the components are imported,” Andre Viera, who sells appliances at the Falabella outlet on Florida Street, said in an interview. “The lady who came in on Wednesday and said she would be back to buy it on Saturday must be suicidal.”

Ecolatina forecasts inflation this year will be 30 percent or more compared with 28 percent in 2014. The government, which has been censured by the International Monetary Fund for inaccurate reporting of economic data, said prices rose 10.9 percent last year.


Our Central Planners must be watching what is happening in Argentina with envious eyes! All that inflation...just look at the economic prosperity(!)...what a dream!


We Will Make Electricity So Cheap That Only the Rich Will Burn Candles.​

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/04/10/rich-burn-candles/

The quote is attributed to the inventor Thomas Edison (though he used a different phrasing) who expressed this idea in 1880.

Can you imagine the deflation fearing Central planners saying that today?

Thomas Alva Edison (February 11, 1847 – October 18, 1931) was an American inventor and businessman. He developed many devices that greatly influenced life around the world, including the phonograph, the motion picture camera, and a long-lasting, practical electric light bulb. Dubbed "The Wizard of Menlo Park",[2] he was one of the first inventors to apply the principles of mass production and large-scale teamwork to the process of invention, and because of that, he is often credited with the creation of the first industrial research laboratory.

Thomas Alva Edison being both an inventor and businessman knew the importance of bringing prices down by increasing PRODUCTIVITY so that his inventions would be available to more and more consumers. The result; Electricity is so ubiquitous we take it for granted. So who did falling electricity prices hurt? Which economy was destroyed by falling electricity prices?

Despite all the overwhelming historical evidence against them, Central planners still want you to pay more for electricity, more for food, more for rent, more for candles, more for petrol etc. They try to convince you that there will be dire consequences if prices for these and other things we need and want to buy start falling. Can you think of anything more impossibly stupid? They would rather have us all burning expensive candles to keep our homes illuminated because electricity would be a luxury that only the rich could afford. “It will keep candle makers employed” would be their reasoning. Even that would probably be wrong, because of the burdensome taxes and regulations we would be using candles manufactured in China!

The Central planners make it clear how much contempt they have for us by resorting to the kind of mythology and fairy tales used to scare children into complaint behaviour. They want to keep us stupid, compliant and terrified. Christine Lagarde calls deflation an ‘Ogre’ to create the illusion that they will be our saviours. The only Ogres are the Central planners...the INFLATION OGRES that everyone should fear.






31,835
 
Inflation

Yellen’s First Challenge: Coping With Too-Low Inflation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/yellen-s-first-challenge-coping-with-too-low-inflation.html

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said in a Jan. 7 speech that too-low inflation can be “a cause for real concern” because it increases the possibility a “negative shock” to the economy may lead to deflation. That could cause households to delay purchases in anticipation of even lower prices and companies to postpone investment and hiring as demand for their products dries up
.

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Bring on the inflation Yellen because I've got gold (y) and just like you, I don't give a sh!t about poor people, I only care about getting richer :cheesy:








31,898
 
Insubordination!

India Unexpectedly Raises Rate as Rupee Risks Inflation Goal
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-india-rates-as-inflation-target-mulled.html

India’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation and defend the rupee after the currency tumbled in the volatility roiling emerging markets in the past week.

Fight inflation? What!? I thought Deflation is the terrifying ogre we must all fear? Didn't the Indians get the tweet?


Consumer-price inflation will exceed 9 percent in the three months ending March 31, and range between 7.5 percent and 8.5 percent in the same period next year, the RBI said in a separate review today. An increase in the policy rate “will set the economy securely on the recommended disinflationary path,” the central bank said in the statement.

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I don't think Christine Lagarde is going to like this, especially after telling everyone how terrifying and destructive the deflation ogre is...I suppose the Indians think that using the word "disinflationary" isn't anywhere near as terrifying to the general population as "deflation"...scares me just writing that word...:-0








31,932
 
Nobody wants Gold *LOL*

Up to 3,000kg of gold being smuggled in a month, admits Chidambaram
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...h-admits-Chidambaram/articleshow/29460490.cms

NEW DELHI: Finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday acknowledged a spurt in gold smuggling in the wake of higher duties and other curbs on the import of the yellow metal into the country. While estimating illegal shipments of up to 3,000kg in certain months — a record by all accounts — the minister justified the restrictions, citing high current account deficit (CAD) but indicated that some of the tightening may be eased in the next few months.



But there are dunces out there who will try and convince you that nobody wants Gold :LOL:

The US Economy is "recovering" :LOL::LOL::LOL:






31,972
 
Yellow Alert

There are ominous signs that a stock market correction is due in the coming months, most likely around mid 2014. I will be watching for the 1950.00 level on the ES (E-mini S&P500). I have been selling 50% of any stock holding in my portfolio that has made a +100% gain over the last 4 years and I have been buying gold with the profit. I will continue to do so.


ESZ3 @ 1806.25

GCZ3 @ 1232.1

S&P 500 Has Longest Weekly Drop Since 2012 as Fed Cuts QE
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...st-weekly-drop-since-2012-as-fed-cuts-qe.html

The S&P 500 slipped 0.4 percent to 1,782.59 in the week and reached the lowest level since November on Jan. 29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 180.26 points, or 1.1 percent, to 15,698.85. Both gauges capped the worst month in almost two years, with the S&P 500 finishing January down 3.6 percent while the Dow dropping 5.3 percent.


I am still watching what develops as this is reminiscent of the market action around Feb 2007, but the big collapse came many months later so I am sticking with my target of ES@1950.

Janet Yellen upping the Q.E again me thinks! What an absolute disaster the Central Planners have created...You can't print your way to prosperity, just ask President Robert Mugabe.

Nothing has been fixed...just more debt and Malinvestment has been added to struggling economies...Keynesians :rolleyes:




ES @ 1777.00
GC @ 1245.6





32,100
 
Inflationary growth

Osborne Braces for Cost of Living Angst as Rate Views Shift
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...iving-cost-angst-as-u-k-rate-views-shift.html

Voters squeezed by soaring energy bills and stagnant wages now face the threat of costlier loans as the strongest growth since 2007 fuels speculation that the Bank of England might raise interest as soon as this year. Governor Mark Carney and his policy makers will meet today to discuss the strength of the economy in preparation for their monthly decision next week.


These clueless economically illiterate retards still haven't figured out that this is the result of INFLATIONARY "growth" and not real economic growth. How can any economy realistically grow if people are being squeezed by a rising cost of living? Only a Central Planner can call that a "recovery"

Prices FALL when you have genuine economic growth because there is real productivity which results in an increase in the SUPPLY of goods and services. More supply=lower prices.

How anyone can buy into the "rising prices is good" BS is beyond me...

This is ALL the consequence of expanding the money supply i.e./ Q.E or to give it it's real name: INFLATION.


The argument over the cost of living was rekindled today as new research claimed that Britons are five years away from seeing their living standards return to pre-crisis levels, with the poorest on course to be the biggest losers.


Just scare them with the dreaded deflation ogre...Go on, I dare you to tell them how lucky they are that prices haven't fallen...I'm sure the poorest will appreciate it...






32,108
 
Deflation ogre defeated in Argentina!

Dad Can’t Buy Daughter Shoes as Argentine Currency Falls
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ughter-shoes-as-argentine-currency-falls.html

Jorge Contrera checked a pair of soiled shoes from top to bottom, tried to buff them with his shirt sleeve, then paid 40 pesos ($5) for his 8-year-old daughter’s present. Before Argentina’s devaluation last month, he planned to surprise her with a new pair.

“Do you know how I feel buying my daughter used shoes?” said 29-year-old Contrera, a welder who’s currently working as a delivery man. “The new shoes just went up and I don’t have the cash.”


Let me guess...You feel relieved because the Central Planners have defeated the dreaded DEFLATION OGRE! Better to have expensive used shoes than affordable new shoes...right?


Like Contrera, many Argentines see their standard of living falling as the fastest pace of inflation in a decade erodes their purchasing power and confidence in President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s economic policies.


What!? This is not what our Central Planners are telling us! In fact, they are saying the EXACT OPPOSITE!!


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32,205
 
'The Great Post Thread'

I was going to submit this to 'The Great Post Thread' but I know that thread will end up being ruined by all the dunces in this forum despite timsk's efforts. Much safer here.

This post was from SOCRATES before he turned purple. The highlights are mine.

SOCRATES; said:
Let us take this topic of stoploss one notch higher shall we ?

When you become very familiar with an instrument, it talks to you.

It indicates to you its propensity to go higher or not, to fall further or not, and how far.

It also tells you that it is zig zagging and going nowhere.

All these inferences are there for everybody to observe, but you need a lot of screen time to be able to tune in and pick them up.

When you first start with all this, you have to use a stoploss every time you take a postition because your judement is not so accurate and your timing is not so good.

With the passing of time and the clocking of screen hours, if you are able to recognise mistakes and not repeat them, your accuracy improves. If you do it for very long, and you are very strict with yourself and you proceed to benefit from your errors by cataloguing them, you will get to a point of development in which you are right most of the time.

When you start, the stops you are likely to use are a bit wider than those you will eventually end up with at the end of your road, but the idea of using stops must never be derelicted or abandonded.

The reason for this is that you may be perfectly right to enter a trade by taking a position. However, it may be that at the very moment you have done this, unbeknown to you conditions may have suddenly changed.

When you decided and entered you were right, now suddenly you are wrong.

At a mechanical level a stoploss mechanically curtails unnecessary losses.

At a higher level of proficiency, even when the stop is a very tight one, in the same way that the instrument you have specialised in will talk to you, the stop will do the same, it will tell you that the posture you are currently adopting is the wrong one, and that you must not persist.

This means that if the ensuing move developing is particularly strong and steady, you ought to consider taking the opposite view, or, if the move developing is unclear, you ought to abstain.

Using stops is part of trading, it is very foolish not to use them at whatever level of proficiency you are at.


Basically, only the foolish will tell you not to use stops. These are the same fools who say that you don't need to be right to make money. The same fools who tell you that they need to have their head fixed before they can make money :LOL:



'Like' this post if you want to read more of my 'Great Post' choices. :!:





32,242
 
'The Great Post Thread'

Original post by 1lotwonder the highlights are mine.

1lotwonder; said:
beliefs we hold are to me the obvious reason for both losses and arguments - which could be stating the obvious - but there we are

some folks simply refuse to believe the truth. they prefer to walk the easy path and believe everything they hear and read and refuse to stop and think for themselves. although because they may be (trying to) think - they believe they are thinking for themselves.

these are the same people who let their losses run out of control as they refuse to believe they are wrong. the truth would hurt them too much - so in a sense, losing becomes less painful because to alter their beliefs would cause even more pain in the long run.

their beliefs in a quick buck and easy money (especially if its tax free!) lure them to trading like bees to honey.

when a novel and original idea comes to light, these folks will disagree and start an argument as it goes against the grain of what they have 'learnt' in the material pumped out by the media/brokerage reports on the web etc. again, to keep an open mind and the trouble to investigate an idea would be too much pain for them. it is easier to bore everyone to death with their repeated claims and statements they ripped out of that glossy book. this then infuriates us (especially me!) even more - but then i realise i need the ignorant to make my livelihood possible.

in other words, for these folks ignorance is bliss.

however, although must would agree that trading style is individual, most arguments seem to centre around the losers false claims of success (real winners dont talk about it - they just do it) or understanding of 'facts' rather than ways to actually make money. in fact - how to make money probably has never been discussed - because most here simply dont know. im not talking about someones latest magic cross over system here. those that do know are not going to share it with the ignorant and stupid are they! so a big argument erupts with both sides often knowing little about what they are talking about.

i now let it wash over me and i really see this site as a place of amusement when times are quiet rather than a place where serious discussion takes place.


'Like' this post if you want to read more of my 'Great Post' choices.:!:


32,285
 
Great Post choices

More about the importance of STOPS and having the right attitude/approach. Original post by SOCRATES. Highlights are mine.

SOCRATES; said:
But I do explain a lot, but it does not land, that is the problem.

You take this thread for example,OK ?

I make a valid comment and then it starts to attract abuse, and the mods have to step in with a fat finger. Why ? Because i give as good as I get, if not better, I always respond fiercely if I am attacked.

Let's talk about this thread.

What exactly does Brett Steenbarger do his best to solve ?

( I have had PM traffic with him and he seems a very decent chap, btw.)

The problems that beset him, and any other house psychologist for that matter is that he has to find a way to bring people to proficiency, to stop them doing silly things, to stop them taking flyers, to stop them reacting incorrectly to market prompts, to help them retain control of themselves, to help them prevent themselves from becoming serial traders out of control, to stop them overtrading, to help them not be emotional, reactive, impatient, and all these things.

What could be at the root core of all these problems ?

Is it the fault of the house psychologist ? No, he is himself, and trying to do his best.

Is it that the people he is trying to help are maniacs ? No they are ordinary human beings in an environment that requires a different attitude, conduct and responses to those they are accustomed to in ordinary life.

Now who avails himself of the help offered by the house psychologist ?

Obviously those who need it, the ones who are having problems, because according to their frame of reference they are doing the right things, but then, frequently, the outcomes they get are not the ones they expect. This is because this group, for whatever reason, persist in having the wrong responses, the wrong attitudes, the wrong reactions, the wrong way of going about things, the wrong way of dealing with problems, the wrong way of meeting problems and resolving them, the wrong way of responding, of self monitoring, of self governance, of self responsibility and ultimately of control. Nearly all of it is a problem of control.

These are the cases a house psychologist has to deal with to try to help put them right.

Now I get a lot of abuse because I contradict mainstream thinking on all this.

Consider the quiet ones in the corner, who don't fall prey to doing all of the above. They don't need any help and have no reason to ask for any. They keep themselves to themselves. You don't hear them whinging and complaining because they have no reason to.

The house psychologist's skills are not needed by this group. They have a totally different way of going about things and tackling problems. The house psychologist acquires a template to help individuals with problems.

He does not acquire a template for the other group. There is no need for one. The other group do not even comment, they just get on with it. Therefore you could say that the template for the successful ones is missing.

Additionally, the successful ones are apt to guard themselves against being asked too many questions, as it is in their interest to protect their proficiency (notice that I say proficiency and not an edge, because that comes much later) so what happens ? Everyone gets to be familiar with the nature of problems but everyone remains in the dark about non problems.

When I bring this up, I get a lot of abuse.

Now another example.

Some time ago the question of stops was being discussed.

Again, when I commented incisively on it, it served to stimulate the rowdy element as well.

Without going into deep details I explained that efficient traders use very tight stops because efficient traders get it right many many more times than they get it wrong, that is why they are efficient traders, OK ?

Therefore efficient traders are surprised and shocked when they get it wrong. The fact that they use very tight stops immediately limits losses.

Inefficient traders are apt to use wide stops and some blighters none at all !
They now begin to argue, yes argue, that to use a wide stop is the right thing to do because it allows a position to "breathe" and other nonsenses. When it is pointed out that wide stops used by inefficient traders who get it wrong often and really ought to fiercely control losses, they get abusive, or, begin to argue.

That is why I have so many posts under my belt. I have tried in the past to illustrate lots of ideas. These ideas are immediately recognised by a few who go on to use them beneficially which pleases me enormously. The great majority see fit to argue and argue and do not progress.

I am accused of being among other things, a charlatan, a wordsmith, an autocrat, etc.,

The problem is that a lot of people forget about the message being delivered to them and only concentrate on the way the message is delivered and so miss the content altogether.








32,389
 
Bloomberg phrase of 2014!

Janet Yellen speaks today and I tell you the suspense is killing me! I can’t wait to find out which word or phrase Bloomberg is going to latch on to and make it their word/phrase of the year!

In 2013 it was “Taper” and my favourite “as some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value”.

IMO: The following are likely contenders for Bloomberg’s word/phrase of 2014


  • Disinflation concerns
  • Deflation fears
  • Protect the recovery
  • Avoid recession
  • Reassess planned path






32,485
 
Reassess planned path

Janet Yellen speaks today and I tell you the suspense is killing me! I can’t wait to find out which word or phrase Bloomberg is going to latch on to and make it their word/phrase of the year!

In 2013 it was “Taper” and my favourite “as some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value”.

IMO: The following are likely contenders for Bloomberg’s word/phrase of 2014


  • Disinflation concerns
  • Deflation fears
  • Protect the recovery
  • Avoid recession
  • Reassess planned path


"Reassess planned path" has my vote.(y)


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