Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

Re: Usd_jpy

I canceled my 86.00 order and just bought at 85.07 with a stop at 84.70

I got out with +7 pips and I think that this pair is going down some more before it bottoms out. I will look for a long entry after another leg down.

 

[JahDave]

The Aussie B wave was 114% the size of the A wave. Elliott wave rules state that in a regular flat the B wave will be between 100% and 138% the size of the A wave. Therefore I think this pair has probably started the C wave and it should go down to at least the bottom of the A wave. Although it still could go up again before starting down, I don't think so because it has a nice bearish engulfing candle.

 

[JahDave]

NZD_USD Update

This NZD_USD pair really surprised me because it put in that evening star doji last week and made a high above that. Anyway, I think there is a top in place now because of the same reasons as the Aussie. The Kiwi seems to be in a regular flat like the Aussie and if wave B is over like I think it is then this pair has some nice downside ahead. Just like the Aussie there is a bearish engulfing candle in place. That doesn't mean that there won't be some retracement, but there should be not be a new high for weeks.

 

[JahDave]

EUR_USD Update

I very seldom talk about fundamentals because I believe that they exist, but have a very nominal effect on currency movements. I will comment about the Euro in this case........It seems to me that this entire move up for the Euro is because the general public wants to believe that everything is going to be alright and they are buying the rhetoric that all the PIIGS are doing well now and their problems are solved. People have been drinking the Kool-Aid, but sooner or later the truth will come out and the Euro will have another big drop. I think that will be sometime in the first half of next year. In the mean time the Euro should drop just like the Aussie and Kiwi, before making one last run up towards the end of this year and into the first part of next year.

 

[fuzzylogic]

Re: Usd_jpy

I got out with +7 pips and I think that this pair is going down some more before it bottoms out. I will look for a long entry after another leg down.

Hi Dave, what do you make of eurjpy at the moment? I noticed that there is a very nice bearish divergence setup on the 4 hr, been tracking it for a while now. :?:

 

[JahDave]

Re: Usd_jpy

Hi Dave, what do you make of eurjpy at the moment? I noticed that there is a very nice bearish divergence setup on the 4 hr, been tracking it for a while now. :?:

Here is a long term day chart, a medium term day chart and an hour chart. It appears that the hour chart is turning down now, but the medium term chart shows about 2 thousand pips of upside potential,,,,,, and then the long term charts shows at least 3 thousand pips of downside potential. I thought last week that the Japanese government could turn the tide on the Yen by intervening, but I'm starting to have my doubts about that.

 

[JahDave]

The bottom line is when the Dollar Index bottoms out then the USD will start a wave three up that will surprise almost everyone. I think it will bottom out somewhere between .7760 and .7560.

 

[JahDave]

The Aussie usually leads every other currency pair and it just hit a 26 month high against the USD. This probably means that all the wave 2's will finally be wrapping up soon and we can begin wave three's across the board.

 

[JahDave]

When the Euro bottomed out I stated numerous times that I thought it would go to at least 1.35. Also I said I thought the Dollar index will bottom out and head back up somewhere between the 7760 and 7560. That is the 61.8 and the 76.4% retracement of the first wave up. The Dollar index closed today at 7826 and yesterday at 7896, so it is getting close to my first target. I think this next wave of Dollar strength will be a wave 3 and carry the Euro to parity or below.

 

[JahDave]

Here is what I make of the Euro right now. I am posting the daily chart here with the three red lines up top that compare to the length of the A wave. The top line is the 100%, the second line is the 86.4% line and the third line is the 76.4% line. Usually a C wave will have a fibonacci relationship to the A wave: sometimes less or sometimes more but they are usually related. This C wave could extend past 100%, but I don't think so because there are too many bulls and too few bears in the market, and also volume is extremely thin right now. If volume were to pick up I might reconsider. Anyway, my opinion is that the market should reverse at one of these three levels. Also as per my previous post, the dollar index is looking like a reversal is in store soon. This correction back up is a wave 2 or a B wave and that means wave 3 or a wave C is coming next. My advice is not be caught on the wrong side of this reversal because it is going to be brutal to the down side.

 

[JahDave]

Re: AUD_USD Update

Let's look at the Aussie now. I totally missed the 1.618% relationship on the first ABC. Look at my two charts I am posting with the two different ABC relationships. The first one has the the C wave at a 161.8% projection of the A wave. If this second ABC has the C wave at the 161.8% projection of the A wave then the Aussie should top out around the .9790. The downside other scenario is if the Aussie goes to the 261.8% projection it will make the 1.0685, but I don't think it will do that this time. I do think it will do that in the future though.

 

[JahDave]

Re: AUD_USD Update

Let's look at the Aussie now. I totally missed the 1.618% relationship on the first ABC. Look at my two charts I am posting with the two different ABC relationships. The first one has the the C wave at a 161.8% projection of the A wave. If this second ABC has the C wave at the 161.8% projection of the A wave then the Aussie should top out around the .9790. The downside other scenario is if the Aussie goes to the 261.8% projection it will make the 1.0685, but I don't think it will do that this time. I do think it will do that in the future though.

I know this looks encouraging for a long term reversal down, but this pair did not make either Fibo level I was looking for. Therefore, I say make some money down, but protect yourself because I think this could have one last push up.......

Good trading everyone.
JahDave

 

[JahDave]

I just went long USD_JPY because I think that the Usd Just finished an extremely deep retracement for a wave 2. My stop is just below the 82.86 which was the prior low and the reward is several thousand pips before I will consider getting out. That is about a 20 to 1 ratio and I will take a chance for that.

 

[JahDave]

If you follow the Dollar Index like I have mentioned before then you should be able to see the pattern. I stated that the 61.8% fibo level was at 77.60. Actually I was wrong and the 76.40% Fibo level was at the 77.60 and the 75.60 dollar index value was the 85.40 Fibo level. At any rate, it is becoming more clear to me that the big traders don't have enough of the retail traders money on the table yet to make a major reversal. If I am right in my thinking then there should be a play down, and then a big play up to suck everyone in long before the huge down move.

Let's make pips,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

If you follow the Dollar Index like I have mentioned before then you should be able to see the pattern. I stated that the 61.8% fibo level was at 77.60. Actually I was wrong and the 76.40% Fibo level was at the 77.60 and the 75.60 dollar index value was the 85.40 Fibo level. The USD hit the 85.06 today, so it didn't make the 77.60 level yet. I suspect that the USD will bounce at the 77.60 level and then fall to the 75.60 level before going on a wave THREE binge. If anyone is short after the USD hits the 75.60 level then all I can say is that you must want to give your money to other people. I can't say it any clearer...............If the USD index makes it down to the 75.60 level then it will not go lower. Start buying Dollars for the long haul back up.


Let's make pips,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

If you follow the Dollar Index like I have mentioned before then you should be able to see the pattern. I stated that the 61.8% fibo level was at 77.60. Actually I was wrong and the 76.40% Fibo level was at the 77.60 and the 75.60 dollar index value was the 85.40 Fibo level. The USD hit the 85.06 today, so it didn't make the 77.60 level yet. I suspect that the USD will bounce at the 77.60 level and then fall to the 75.60 level before going on a wave THREE binge. If anyone is short after the USD hits the 75.60 level then all I can say is that you must want to give your money to other people. I can't say it any clearer...............If the USD index makes it down to the 75.60 level then it will not go lower. Start buying Dollars for the long haul back up.


Let's make pips,
Dave

This whole thing took longer than I thought it would to reverse, but if you follow my thread then you will see that I have always said that I got in early. I have never been wrong in the direction of the markets yet, but I have always been several hundred pips off. And I also said that I would work on that. I am working on that and that is why I am saying that short term is down for the Euro and medium term is up and long term is extremely down. The EUR_USD will be below parity 12 months from now, but after one last spike up.......

 

[JahDave]

I just went long USD_JPY because I think that the Usd Just finished an extremely deep retracement for a wave 2. My stop is just below the 82.86 which was the prior low and the reward is several thousand pips before I will consider getting out. That is about a 20 to 1 ratio and I will take a chance for that.

Right now this is indeed paying off...........I will endure this trade even to a loss, because I believe in the Bank Of Japan...........You have to believe in something to do this job. If you don't believe in anything, then don't try to trade currency,,,,,,,

 

[JahDave]

This whole thing took longer than I thought it would to reverse, but if you follow my thread then you will see that I have always said that I got in early. I have never been wrong in the direction of the markets yet, but I have always been several hundred pips off. And I also said that I would work on that. I am working on that and that is why I am saying that short term is down for the Euro and medium term is up and long term is extremely down. The EUR_USD will be below parity 12 months from now, but after one last spike up.......

This whole thing is is a topping process.........I don't know at this point when the big drop will start, but it will coincide with the stock market drop..............This much I am pretty sure about..............At the bottom oil will be $25.00 per barrel, gold will be 700.00 dollars per ounce and the Euro will be at parity or below............This might be the last dollar strength run for our lifetimes..........

 

[brettus]

This whole thing is is a topping process.........I don't know at this point when the big drop will start, but it will coincide with the stock market drop..............This much I am pretty sure about..............At the bottom oil will be $25.00 per barrel, gold will be 700.00 dollars per ounce and the Euro will be at parity or below............This might be the last dollar strength run for our lifetimes..........

It could do this, or it might just smash through 1.45. I'm not sure if QE in US will make the market drop. There's gotta be some terrorist activity or something on the horizon. Anyone for another conspiracy theory at all? I'm thinking Christmas or January for the fall.

 

[JahDave]

It could do this, or it might just smash through 1.45. I'm not sure if QE in US will make the market drop. There's gotta be some terrorist activity or something on the horizon. Anyone for another conspiracy theory at all? I'm thinking Christmas or January for the fall.

I am convinced that social mood and not fundamentals drive the markets. The reason I say this is because I have seen the exact same type of announcements interpreted opposite ways by the masses. This is what I need to work on because it is not that difficult to watch the financial shows and know whether the bulk of Americans are feeling positive or negative about the markets. Anyway, I don't think we need a large event to send the markets on a down trend, the social mood just has to shift to negative. When people start to realize how bad things really are across the board in the U.S., then I think this will be enough to shift market sentiment. The market sentiment always gets too exuberant during uptrends and too pessimistic during downtrends, so be prepared when it changes to down......... It will go farther than it should.