Elliot Wave Analysis on ARM

[darth trader]

Hi guys,

Ive started a new thread so you don't have to look at this if it goes against the orthodox point of view.

Anyway that's enough apologies, for the open minded here goes...

Elliott Wave theory tries to analyse price patterns for structure using wave patterns that fit into the fibonacci series typcially using waves iof 3 and 5.

If you look at ARM since mid-May there are 5 waves down followed by 3 waves up. The five waves down consist of a simple 2, a complex 4 and an extended 3. The 3 waves up include an extended b.

Moreover there is an evening star candlestick on the nasdaq suggesting the next move is down.

I'm only a novice at Elliott analysis but it looks like the next move for ARM is down.

Any thoughts?

 

[Riz]

Hi Darth,

A bit of clarification please...what timescale chart is the evening star candlestick on the Nasdaq (comp or 100?)? And for arm you reading end of day prices or intraday chart?

Ohh and is it possible to add both charts with the waves and evening star candlestick marked?

Cheers, hope you're enjoying your w/e...

Riz

 

[darth trader]

Nas Evening star

The evening star is on the daily chart and is that 3 candle pattern from wed/thy/fri. Nasdaq seems to show morning/evening stars relatively frequently...

 

[darth trader]

Arm 3 month daily chart

This is the three month chart showing five waves down.

 

[Riz]

Darth,

I wouldnt attach great importance to that evening star, as it's small and the wick at the bottom of last candlestick suggests weakness on the down side, ie bears couldnt press strong enough at that level...

Now how about the reverse, if you could switch the chart to weekly from daily you'll see a morning star with a hammer at the bottom, but this time the last candlestick has got a wick at the top indicating bulls weakness, and again it's a small star...

As for ARM waves, I dont see 3 waves up, I think the rise from 200ish to 300ish should be considered as 1 wave not 3, as there is no retracement on the way up...this of course will leave 2 more waves up...in fact with a consolidated Nasdaq this is more likely, but on the other hand another leg down on Nasdaq and ARM will find it diffcult to hang on to 300 support...

Very interesting, eh?

Riz

 

[darth trader]

Thanks Riz - very interesting!

I'm only just beginning to count waves and new it wouldn't be easy. Here's hoping we get waves b and c...

 

[lucymick]

Talking about Arm

I am not that familiar with Elliot waves but have got ARM on the watchlist as it has just broken above the lip of the cup it formed. Possible waiting for the handle which would pull the price back to the 10 day MA and then should go up to 400??

 

[ChartMan]

I see no elliot wave up either, at least not EOD...We ned to break above 320/330 to enable a good run at 400.

 

[shelman]

Good stuff lads but i'm afraid it does'nt matter how many waves there are, the US will provide the answer this afternoon.
For my part i want something to happen, either up or down, this inertia aint good for my nerves.

Steve

 

[RogerM]

Steve - I agree. Although I am a comined chartist/fundamental trader I have seen too many bad calls based on Elliott counts which have been subsequently amended to take into account events which occurred later. Also not sure how relevant Elliott is to single stocks - but prepared to admit that there is some relevance to indices and complete markets.

Prepared to be shot down on this point of view - but I think newsflow and less esoteric charting techniques are the key to ARM.

Regards,

 

[ChartMan]

I think Elliot waves are like all other TA tools and indicators. On their own, they are meaningless. Used in conjunction with other data, they can provide useful ammunition. I have used just waves to trade/guide subdtantial rises on the dow, intraday, to good effect, but only once.