The 9500 is proving to be a bit of a stumbling block at the moment and if the price drops below the blue line, then the double top will be completed and down we go. Having said that if 9500 does go then the magical 10,000 level could be on the cards.
Big in theCity- you should post some reasons why you think 7000.
FB, Here's why I think 10,500.
The DOW does deliver "W" bottoms, at least at intraday levels. As TA is supposed to be time independent, there is no reason that this W bottom can't deliver to 10,500.....
I can't see the Dow exceeding 10,000 and 9500 is likely to provide a extreme resistance. Dow 7000 is far more attractive from a valuation perspective so has a higher probability, though the fact that there is a presidential election next year makes me allow for the possibility of a range-bound market for the next 12-18 months, before a severe drop into 2006.
I definitely see weakness over the next day or so and if the subsequent rally isn't strong then further weakness down to at least 8800 and possibly the support at 8500 by mid/late August. Cyclic analysis suggests a weakening market for the next few weeks.
This does not reflect the current market situation and trend.
A lot of things has happened since then.
I for one don't depend on charts as it is easier guessing the next direction from whats taken place recently- rather than difinitively depending on a chart which only shows what have taken place which may never occur again.
Skimbleshanks, the upside down shs you are referring to has not taken out the reaction high as yet so is still in the realms of the false break scenario. As for double bottoms and targets north of 10,000, it is all very well looking at technicals but there is no way fundamentals suggest a move anywhere near such levels...even at current prices some p/e ratios are at levels close to 2000 peaks. As of now there is no evidence of a second half recovery (even if some US policymakers believe that the more one talks about it the more likely it is to happen) and with fast dwindling momentum, there is a strong possibility that the market is set for a fall.