Lee Shepherd
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,164
- Likes
- 573
I've been trading for some time now and am very sure that the dow on monday will go up at some point, be aware of the pullbacks and look to get in with either a short or a long. The dow will trend a good few hundred points on monday most likely but also pay attention to the bit of sideways action before the big move. The dow could close down on the day but at some point it will go up before the down and vice versa.
Hope this helps
Hope this helps
Hi saadhadi - Everyone might have an opinion on which way the Dow will go Monday but why don't you give yours? 'Knowing' which way it will go is only part of the game, and even if you are 100% certain which way it will go, the fact that you ask people suggests that you are not that confident. The rest of the game is knowing what to do once you have opened a position in the right direction. Plenty of people can do good technical analysis and be right most of the time about direction, but they cannot manage the position once they are in it.
My advice is if you have an opinion (and let's hear it), firstly plan how you will play the Dow Monday, secondly play it according to your plan, thirdly review how you can improve your plan after the day. If you don't have an opinion, you won't be able to form a plan and you should not play the Dow Monday at all, not even for fun. You would not get in a car with no brakes would you, even for a short journey.
My advice is if you have an opinion (and let's hear it), firstly plan how you will play the Dow Monday, secondly play it according to your plan, thirdly review how you can improve your plan after the day. If you don't have an opinion, you won't be able to form a plan and you should not play the Dow Monday at all, not even for fun. You would not get in a car with no brakes would you, even for a short journey.
That said, short-term or intra-day -
* the hammer candlestick for Friday
* the close above the 14MA
* which is rising
suggest an early rise. But financial news over the weekend and on Monday morning could neutralise this. If the Dow trades below 8118 I would expect a further fall from there initially to 7449. Longer-term is not something I'm good at / interested in but a close below 7449 suggests a disastrous further fall, close above 9027 suggests recovery higher.
* the hammer candlestick for Friday
* the close above the 14MA
* which is rising
suggest an early rise. But financial news over the weekend and on Monday morning could neutralise this. If the Dow trades below 8118 I would expect a further fall from there initially to 7449. Longer-term is not something I'm good at / interested in but a close below 7449 suggests a disastrous further fall, close above 9027 suggests recovery higher.
thanks for the much needed advise. im actually holding on to a short position from friday i just got so frustrated i didn't even care to close my position, can you please advise if i should close as soon as the market opens keep in mind lee that im trading cfd on forex the (dow jones) so its 24 hour trading.
Lee Shepherd
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,164
- Likes
- 573
Hi mate,
I was being a bit flippant with my earlier comments. So, on a serious note mate, close the position immediately and dont look to enter back into any trades until you have a plan that you are prepared to stick to. It sounds somewhat clear to me that you have held this past any kind of stops and are now fishing for any one to say that the market will fall on monday.....be very careful bud, you will listen to anyone that tells you the market will fall and dismiss anyone that says the market will rise. Either way, get out of the trade at whatever cost and swallow the loss, the worst thing that could happen here is the market falls on monday, you keep the trade open and make money from it. You would have then formed a bad habit that will fcuk you later down the road.
Advice is simple:
Close the trade Asap
rathcoole_exile
Guest Author
- Messages
- 3,925
- Likes
- 767
Lee,
great advice. can't Rep you 'cos I Repped your earlier classic reply
great advice. can't Rep you 'cos I Repped your earlier classic reply
My sympathies to shorters who might now be scared out, though nobody knows for sure what Monday will bring. But in future, remember the rule chaps, 'Plan the trade, trade the plan' so if you don't have a plan you shouldn't put on the trade.
That said, if you're a swing trader, you might have gone short on the Dow on Thursday as it breached the low of swing high 08/12, 8637. The textbook stop-loss from here was the high 9027, 390pts higher, and this clearly has not been triggered yet. If you trailed this stop lower as the price fell on Friday, your stop would now be 8347+390=8737. We are still 108pts below the trailing stop level, so you still may wish to hold on to the bitter end and see the stop trigger before you exit, on the assumption that you are still just as prepared to accept a 390pt loss as you were when the trade was entered. On the other hand, if you're going to hit a brick wall in your car you would probably try to brake, so you could start to cut the position down right now to reduce the damage rather than close completely before your stop is hit.
If none of the above means anything, for example you don't see why you should have a stop or why you would trail it, you probably shouldn't be swing trading, in which case get out now and find out what to do before you try again. Remember, its 'Ready, Aim, Fire', not 'Ready, Fire, Aim'.
That said, if you're a swing trader, you might have gone short on the Dow on Thursday as it breached the low of swing high 08/12, 8637. The textbook stop-loss from here was the high 9027, 390pts higher, and this clearly has not been triggered yet. If you trailed this stop lower as the price fell on Friday, your stop would now be 8347+390=8737. We are still 108pts below the trailing stop level, so you still may wish to hold on to the bitter end and see the stop trigger before you exit, on the assumption that you are still just as prepared to accept a 390pt loss as you were when the trade was entered. On the other hand, if you're going to hit a brick wall in your car you would probably try to brake, so you could start to cut the position down right now to reduce the damage rather than close completely before your stop is hit.
If none of the above means anything, for example you don't see why you should have a stop or why you would trail it, you probably shouldn't be swing trading, in which case get out now and find out what to do before you try again. Remember, its 'Ready, Aim, Fire', not 'Ready, Fire, Aim'.