Dow Intraday charts 29/09 03/10

china white

Established member
979 12
current point

lads

this is what I make out of where we r at the mo: we had the "healthiest pullback" ever :D which retraced 61.8% of the rally since August 6 (down to 988 on ES) on increased volatility readings. We tested and bounced off 988 earlier today on the worst combination of news and econ numbers. I wud expect the mrkt to turn sharply higher now, possibly re-testing 988 tomorrow. This scenario will be void if 988 is taken out and ES stays below 988 for at least half an hour. In that case Spooz is in big trouble - and I'd expect 920ish prints before long.
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
a bit of finer detail

one more lads - where I c action levels for tomorrow. As I mentioned in the previous mail 988 is fly or die support, 995 is a nice level to be long above IMHO :cheesy: ; 1001 is about time to double your longs :cheesy: ; and a B/O above 1005 will probably drive ES up to re-test 1038 highs :arrowu: happy Trading!
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Oh Dear, Oh Dear. I hope you all read my last post about support at 9350 and what to do if it was lost as support .......CLOSE IT!!!!
Bang goes my theory of coming off 9350 as a solid bottom. Bang goes the triangle break to the upside. I don't have any claims to being right, so there we are. Admitting you're wrong is 95% of the battle I think...... So now we're back to sitting nicely in the down channel and no sign of a reversal. 9250 for support and 9300 for resistance it is then, making a double bottom from 27th Aug.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Just a quickie tonight... an unusual bull flag at the open, coupled with PD and a perfect break on the third peak was a good signal for going long. IF you had the balls, you could have jumped on the short as 9350 failed... with the accompanying fear factor of the first half hour.... Holding through the 9264 whipsaws was the sensible option- until that got resolved. Same thing around the '32's... And that paid out... with an exit on the third peak of the ND. OK so there was more to come, but on balance, there usually isn't and this game is about banking winners at the "appropriate " time and cutting losers ASAP.That would have netted around 70 points for the up move and the best part of a ton IF you took the NO FEAR route at the open. Next sensible move was a short at 19:29 as 9332 was lost... Hard call as to whether to cover coming off 9300 or hold...
As China White says, we've arrived at a 62% retrace and I think we're at a crossroads- drop or fly. Wait and see. You don't get any points for second guessing. All one can say is that if 9250 is lost, there's a big hole underneath it and a big opportunity for a nice short.....
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
where will the Handle come?

Lads,

just wanted to share with u the way I c it. A B/O thru 1005 opened the gate for the bull, with any matadors trying to fight him being swept out of the way :cheesy: Note the importance of 1007.25 - here comes the beauty of 61.8% retracements - if the mrkt bounces off it, former 38.2% level (1007.25 in this case) becomes DOUBLE Fib level, as it is the 38.2% retracement of that 61.8% retracement! :eek: No wonder we spent quite a bit of time round that level - and my take it'll be an important support for tomorrow's price action.

What i am seeing here is a nice round Cup either formed or forming. I'd say there r 2 scenarios 4 tomorrow:

1) we get a Handle stretching from 1015, most likely descending down to 1007.25! and a steep rally afterwards; or

2)we get a spill-over rally up to 1028 first and the Handle will come off those levels down to today's close of 1015.

Either way I believe that at least 1038 will be re-visited. However, I will be trading what will be going off in the mrkt, not in my head! :cool:
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
beauty of RSI

Lads,

cudnt hold myself from admiring today's price action! :D the lazy ones amongst us who bot CCI crossing 0 ot price crossing 100 ema @ 9:30 this morning did not have to move their little finger for the rest of the day - and wud have up to 18 pts (ES) in the bag! However, a little effort wud get as much as 31.5 pts - TRADING ON RSI only! I am attaching a 1-min chart where everything is self-explanatory, the only bit u cant quite c is downsloping res on RSI from before the session which was B/O straight away at the open.

Note the tri btwn 14:10 and 14:45 with 100 ema sitting exactly along its lower bound - perfect chance to double your long here for an extra 6 pts!

Happy Trading! :p
 

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Skimbleshanks

1
2,325 16
China - I notice that you are using Qcharts. You may not realise that there is perhaps an easier way to post your charts. On the chart, right click and select Export, Image, and save it as a .jpg file. Then it will ask you to select the quality (I use around 60%), and that's it.

That will save just the chart, and not all the program around - just thought it might be easier for you. :D
 

Bill

Active member
160 1
Thanks for the analysis China.

I'm still trying to get to grips with the various TA techniques. One of the problems I have is deciding which way a triangle is going to break. The one you identified today looks like a ascending triangle. I have pictures of all the types of triangle on my wall and it shows an ascending triangle in an uptrend will exit north. The question is can the approach to todays triangle be classfied as an uptrend as it looked to me like sideways movement?

Also you imply that this was a 'banker' [yes correctly spelt] so how soon were you able to say that it will exit north; did you need to wait for an exit direction and confirmation pullback or was it obvious before that?

I keep saying this I know but this is the only thread [on the net not just in t2w] where I get straight answers. Full credit to all contributors. [The cheque's in the post]

Bill

P.S. There are a few Ladesses as well as Lads on here!
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
So I got it nearly right in my guess for an uptrend support line. See how the "W" bottom gives us a potential target of 9480- almost touched. How did I get it? Join the tops of the "W" and drop a perpendicular to the lows- 110 points. Add that to the point where the perpendicular crosses the line acros the tops. So 9370 + ( 9370 - 9260).
So. Are we at channel resistance? If so, where is support going top be tomorrow? Where is channel support? ( They are NOT the same thing.)
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
No explanations needed today! The bull flag target at 9410 didn't quite get met, but you knew it would be there abouts as 9400 was tested and held just above- close enough to be met.Just depends on where you take the base of the flag pole from. Just take it from where it looks right. No rocket science there then. 9280 is as good a place as the base of the first candle at 9289... Using 9289 would give a target of 9401.
How do we know the bull flag will break to the upside? Well, at first the last peak failed to make resistance at 9344 and preconditioned me to thinking it was going to fail .... but then the final low failed to make support, confirming the odds of a break to the expected upside. China white called a triangle on RSI here... maybe so, but not one I would like to bank on. What did happen, was the formation of an RS Switch, confirmed by the pullback to 9440 just after the break.Notice also how RSI failed to make support on the final low. This RSI channel had been in force for 90 minutes. Remember the longer a trend is in force, the more likely we are to get a big break.....The mini triangle in the price gave a target of 9400 as second confirmation. No ND tops to see anywhere so just sit tight. At 9400, there was a sustained drop in RSI down to 40 from 80 for no movement in price. What does that tell you? The sellers are not interested .Stay in there.
Now we get another RS Switch. Unusual to get two in a day. Now a test of 9400 again and RSI testing LOD at 40... Still no reason to get out, finally we end up with a flat top RSI to give us our 3 peak ND top and out at around 9470. Note that just because there is no down slope on the RSI tops doesn't mean it's not divergent.
Where to tomorrow? Closing at HOD can mean a continuation, BUT as we have had a large move today, It may be a case of too much too soon, so look for a drop to solid support at 9400.Top side resistance is at 9500.
With an entry at 9320 pullback, there was an easy 150 points on the table, and time for a leisurely stroll around the park. Alternatively, waiting until the bull flag broke out would still have give a healthy 100+ points.
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
Skimbleshanks many thx 4 yr advice - I was doing 100% and ended up clogging up all the space with my monstrouos charts - sorry! :)

Wje200 - my sincere apologies - one of the nasty habits from the floor - to call all traders lads - no excuses 4 me :( Answering yr Q: IMO since the full body of the tri was above 100 ma, the chances of a pop were significantly higher, I waited 4 the 3rd dip, saw the lower bound (which WAS 100 ma) hold - and doubled longs. I wud recommend tho to wait until the upper bound is pierced to add to yr longs, u miss out on 1 pt, but u get a safer entry, or at least do yr addition in clips. Alright THAT WAS TA - another reason for doubling at that pt u get from reading the good old tape - VIX down 6.5%, TRIN < 0.8, strong internals, down volume just pants :) - what do u reckon shorts do at every small beer pullback? Remember they r the ones sweating and stressed today - they cover WHENEVER WHEREEVER..... What r the chances for the tri to B/D? :)

CM - many thx 4 the Dow analysis - u can tell the RSI story was slightly dif't from that on ES. I was long ever since 11:00 just because ES RSI 1 min was holding above 40ish horizontal sup - still true for Dow, but not tested as much as on ES.... Goes to prove yr pt that its worthwhile to look at both.
 

mombasa

Established member
561 1
CM, would u not classify the tops on the triangle between 1640 & 1700 as ND possibly forming?

I didn't see the bull flag - and to be honest, don't think I still do so had no idea about the target - was watching closely for ND and thought I saw it at that point. Maybe I was watching too closely? Also thought that might be a double top.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Mom, it's down to experience.... ND tops rarely form a triangle at the same time and are rarely flat. Some things, like this, you will only get to differentiate after a long apprenticeship. That's teh bonus of sticking with one instrument, you can learn it's attributes inside out and upside down.
 
 
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