I've had a funny day's trading to be honest!
Firstly, I ordered the Technical Analysis book by Murphy CM and others recommended 2 weeks ago, but ordered the Study Guide instead of the actual book. Anyway, I now have both! I was reading about flags, pennants and triangles before the open today.
This may be a very bad observation of what was going on but I am being honest and I am a novice so please don't shoot me down!
At the open I jumped in on the pull back to the MA at 14:35 and went short. Big mistake as the price went up but noticed a flag forming and decided to gamble and hold on for a drop in price. Turned out I was right and chickened out with +2 points when the price tested 10064.
I then noticed another flag developing from 15:16 to 15:35 and decided it was good opportunity for a short, this time getting out for +22 points.
I saw another flag developing from 15:50 to 15:59 and managed a couple of points by going short again.
I then saw yet another flag developing from 16:07 but it seemed to fail so I waited for the price to bounce down from 10032 before collecting +2 points (better than nothing!)
So far so good but then it all went wrong ...
I went short at about 19:00 after a pullback to the MA. I thought I had doen the right thing as the price started dropping at 19:05 but suddenly it rocketed upwards. I tried to keep calm and wait for a pullback to reduce my losses, but in the end I chipped in for a loss of 32 - right before a pullback! If I had waited another minute for the pullback I would have only lost 15 points.
I lost the points I had made earlier and decided to give up - right as the price went skywards, just my luck!
Anyway, I am still a novice, but chuffed I was able to read the signals and trade with confidence early in the day. That sudden upward move at 19:13 really caught me out though, must have been a triangle formation somewhere that I couldn't see?
Will carry on studying and learning but my confidence is growing!
Any criticism is welcome, even if you call me a plonker!
Justyn.
Firstly, I ordered the Technical Analysis book by Murphy CM and others recommended 2 weeks ago, but ordered the Study Guide instead of the actual book. Anyway, I now have both! I was reading about flags, pennants and triangles before the open today.
This may be a very bad observation of what was going on but I am being honest and I am a novice so please don't shoot me down!
At the open I jumped in on the pull back to the MA at 14:35 and went short. Big mistake as the price went up but noticed a flag forming and decided to gamble and hold on for a drop in price. Turned out I was right and chickened out with +2 points when the price tested 10064.
I then noticed another flag developing from 15:16 to 15:35 and decided it was good opportunity for a short, this time getting out for +22 points.
I saw another flag developing from 15:50 to 15:59 and managed a couple of points by going short again.
I then saw yet another flag developing from 16:07 but it seemed to fail so I waited for the price to bounce down from 10032 before collecting +2 points (better than nothing!)
So far so good but then it all went wrong ...
I went short at about 19:00 after a pullback to the MA. I thought I had doen the right thing as the price started dropping at 19:05 but suddenly it rocketed upwards. I tried to keep calm and wait for a pullback to reduce my losses, but in the end I chipped in for a loss of 32 - right before a pullback! If I had waited another minute for the pullback I would have only lost 15 points.
I lost the points I had made earlier and decided to give up - right as the price went skywards, just my luck!
Anyway, I am still a novice, but chuffed I was able to read the signals and trade with confidence early in the day. That sudden upward move at 19:13 really caught me out though, must have been a triangle formation somewhere that I couldn't see?
Will carry on studying and learning but my confidence is growing!
Any criticism is welcome, even if you call me a plonker!
Justyn.
Not too surprising that 100 failed and we headed back to support. A low risk short up there would have set the day up nicely... but where to get an exit? The low at 10010 looked inviting, with T1 met quite quickly and that was the fifth wave down....Probably a good exit with 90 in the bag, even though it wasn't the bottom. That was only 10 points away....Take a quick look at ES vol if you can- this low showed no signs on being a reversal- the vols were still getting higher at this point. That next low just under 10K showed 3 lower highs on the vol on ES- a good bet for a true divergence confirmation/bottom. I'll post this chart as well tonight for those that can't get ES. Getting in a long as 10K broke back up was a risk, but worth taking, having regard to the previous comments.Then it was an easy ride to the top, almost...Just calculate the targets as you go- flag, triangle, flag, with all targets being met.
And now for that ND top non exit..... How did I know that it would do more? Well, I didn't "know" , I never do.But a quick look at ES Vol showed sustained volumes on the dips, suggesting to me the move was not over...... I suppose one way to play the ND top with a little more bravado, is to wait for the uptrend support line drawn off the 3 lows of the ND to be broken. Of course, it's just possible that you missed the ND- there was a flag and a triangle buried in there too....and you might just have been concentrating on the triangle target of 64. I must admit, I missed these at my quick glance as I was otherwise occupied. Anyway, finding the top at 140 was a problem for me with no real clues.....
Another relatively easy day with 200+..... If you got a ton, that's still good...
And now for that ND top non exit..... How did I know that it would do more? Well, I didn't "know" , I never do.But a quick look at ES Vol showed sustained volumes on the dips, suggesting to me the move was not over...... I suppose one way to play the ND top with a little more bravado, is to wait for the uptrend support line drawn off the 3 lows of the ND to be broken. Of course, it's just possible that you missed the ND- there was a flag and a triangle buried in there too....and you might just have been concentrating on the triangle target of 64. I must admit, I missed these at my quick glance as I was otherwise occupied. Anyway, finding the top at 140 was a problem for me with no real clues.....
Another relatively easy day with 200+..... If you got a ton, that's still good...
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Justyn the plonker...... just joking!. If you've read the above,you'll know where the triangle was.... secondly, flags have very distinct chacteristics. Three highs and three lows, and then they break. Sometimes the third ( high or low) doesn't make resistance or support, thus enabling one toget in earlier than usual, i.e. after it breaks. Brush up on targets from Murphy's too. Read my archive documents - elsewhere in this thread, before you get seriously burned. The Dow is fun, if youhave some basic rules to go by.( in my documents)If you don't take on board those rules, you'll get hit badly. They are there to help the unwary get up to speed quickly so that they can at least start to stop making basic errors. You will soon realise that it is those errors that will destroy your bank account.
Here's the link again... http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=5785
There are plenty more in the archives.
Hope this helps.
Here's the link again... http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=5785
There are plenty more in the archives.
Hope this helps.
bansir
Well-known member
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Hi Folks-
Another one of Tradesmarts mini PD's?
Could have gone long off it at 10010 (19:08) with a close on over bought RSI
at 10054 (19:33) ??
I didn't go for it though.
The spike (see pic) was a little hostile I thought; I play my stops a bit tight.
Luckily I had mine under the 100ema at 10022 instead of just relying on the 10032 support/
resistance line.
Well done justyn, try to use cold logic if you can, keep your heart rate down!
Easier said than done, but nothing whipsaws you worse than emotion! (IMHO).
Cheers,
Neil
Another one of Tradesmarts mini PD's?
Could have gone long off it at 10010 (19:08) with a close on over bought RSI
at 10054 (19:33) ??
I didn't go for it though.
The spike (see pic) was a little hostile I thought; I play my stops a bit tight.
Luckily I had mine under the 100ema at 10022 instead of just relying on the 10032 support/
resistance line.
Well done justyn, try to use cold logic if you can, keep your heart rate down!
Easier said than done, but nothing whipsaws you worse than emotion! (IMHO).
Cheers,
Neil
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tradesmart
Experienced member
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A bit of a slow 'consolidation' day today so far, after the big moves this week, and CM’s channel trendlines have accurately predicted resistance levels; and we are now at the 38.2% fib retracement level of the big month long fall from 10490 to 9920.
A third test of the top channel trendline now and a breakout target would be 10320 (current level + 200 channel width)
The daily chart shows that we may have made a higher low, so things are certainly looking more bullish now than they did at the start of the week………
A third test of the top channel trendline now and a breakout target would be 10320 (current level + 200 channel width)
The daily chart shows that we may have made a higher low, so things are certainly looking more bullish now than they did at the start of the week………
