Dow Intraday charts 2/Feb - 6/Feb

[wellshot]

thank you

for those kind remarks! please note i'm self taught [the worst kind if bad habits there too!!]
tradesmart i enjoy your charts..i used to trade entirely on patterns and was forever coming un stuck due to missing a wave therein and/or going in too late and getting stopped out by retracements .. it drove me mad so i have spent the last 2 or more years focusing [too much] on wave structure and the probability of the next move being whatever...if i saw a top going in,say, and i sold half way down the stop at the top might be 30points away! yikes! knowing from elliott that wave 2 retracing is likely to retrace 62% i could "handle" being underwater for a little while..etc etc
the trouble is emotions stil get in the way and if you count it all very nicely and wave 2 starts to/turns into an expanded flat b wave taking out the top then even though i know a c wave will give me the opportunity to get out flat, what if it doesn't?!
so i'm inthe hinterland of trying to bring back the power of patterns and marry this with elliott.....
ESIGNAL.....RIGHT CLICK ON THE LIE , SCROLL TO PROERTIES ,
SELECT LINE THICKNESS--HOPE THAT HELPS
i've just seen thats all in capitals..sorry..
no there are no short cuts to make the time quicker drawing the charts....however, esignal offer their ADVANCED GETS STUDIES
which includes an automatic elliott wave count
don't use it!!!!it's only by learning i tyourself can you make it work..the minute you subordinate your mind to that of another [in this case-esignalelliott] you lose power and will fight your own intuition and go backwards in your trading... i was forever doing this for the week i had it and it was often wrong... i was much quicker , flexible, and right!! [forgive the conceit!!]
otherwise i wrie up my charts with alternative counts in the morning having de briefed for half an hour the night before--yes i'm divorced living with a dalmation bitch! it's easier! [for now!]
have you seen www.elliott-wave-theory.com?
stu

 

[wellshot]

bgold and tradesmart

apologies ...thank you for the comment from the elliott specialist
tradesmart...what is the gordon ghecko thing?!
thank you for when you have time
ta
stu

 

[rustic1]

TS
OK got the apex , where is the top and bottom of the W.

Sorry to be soooooooooooooooo thick about this. As you will realise I am having problems with seeing these poles.

But you will be pleased that I spotted a ND yesterday and traded of it.

You CM have both helped me on this, many thanks


Kathy

 

[One Eyed Shark]

Rustic

Check out this link

http://spytrdr.com/charts

Scroll down to reversal patterns and continuation patterns and you will find a full description and breakdown of patterns and how to calculate them.

HTH

 

[wellshot]

rustic 1

meant purely as a compliment to one eyed shark...
if patterns are of interest have a look at
www.glabal-investor.com..a book shop for traders
and look for

thomas n bulkowski "encylopedia of chart patterns"
isbn 0-471-29525-6
as an adjunct to one eyed sharks ref it's a beautiful book and definitive and encouraging, too, with anecdotal evidence of traders trading so to speak.

 

[tradesmart]

OES/Wellshot – they’re good links thanks, I’ll work through them myself..

RusticKathy – see http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/doubleBottom.html - there is a lot of really good educational stuff on the StockCharts website – it’s worth working right through it.

Wellshot – Gordon Gekko is a consistent top scorer in the T2W Dow competition – see the link on the front page. He declares himself to be an “insider” and judging by his results this must be right…..!

 

[hampy]

Rustic, If you are going to buy trading books go to the T2W link on the home page. you'll get a discount and T2W get a commission ( I think ) which helps run this great site!
hampy

 

[wellshot]

sorry there!

just in case the book isn't on this site

i got the code wrong=www.global-investor.com

just in case

 

[tradesmart]

Even in the intraday setup, we have a hint at the ‘double-bottom’ – two touches on the support line at just below 10550, and up & away! – the kind of consistency that makes for easy trading decisions……(though some resistance now about the 61.8% fib…)

Gordon Gekko must be smiling now……..!

 

[ChartMan]

Sorry guys, I'm not convinced about the "W". The tops are too far apart. You need to have the whole action in 4 waves,so to speak.But I'm prepared as always, to be proved wrong. Someone said to me, not so long ago that there was no such thing as 9 waves up. So what did we have today then? Mr. WellShot ?
Maybe I'm totally wrong and it's just 5 legs up, 4 pullbacks and just 1 wave?
Close at HOD for a long on Monday? With current RSI strength, we could make 650 ish.

 

[ChartMan]

Nice day. As TS suggested, the coil broke
Perfect "V" bottom at the open, finding support just above 64 and a nice ride to the top. Strange, no ND Top, so not an easy out... If you rode your luck off the top, you should have closed on the next top down at 580, having survived an 18 point pullback!.
The Bull flag that followed.... that didn't. What was the early clue that it wasn't going to break to the upside.?
The failure didn't lead to much- another clue, maybe ,for what was to come... I picked the last low at 550 just after 7pm and made 7 trades, closing the longs on the ( what I thought would be ND tops) peaks, and shorting the third peak.Then long off the 100MA bounce, closing on the mini divergence at 87. That netted me 6%. I only say this because some people say that it can't be done on SB.... It's a pity I didn't get the ton from the start, as that would have been an easy 50%. My risk is 0.5%, by the way. Be warned, this is way too high for anyone that does not have 100% confidence in what they are doing!!! I couldn't advocate anyone risking more than 0.1% per trade, and that's on a good day.No doubt I'll get some stick for saying this. Perhaps I want to rise to the challenge of Juan's 154% in a month.....Either way it was good fun although a tad nerve racking :cheesy:
Before anyone points it out, Yes,I did have some break even trades.No good having a greed attack when trying to scalp a couple of points on SpreadBet.

 

[tradesmart]

Good point about the 'W' bottom CM, the form is a bit too vague....and I won't make any references to 'rolling' bottoms now in case it gets you going.....

I put my faith in Gordon Gekko today right from the start, and we got to within 3 points of his prediction......!

he doesn't post very much, but perhaps he could reveal the secrets of his success........spooky.....!

 

[bonsai]

CM
-9 waves ?

I think the comment, that was made, may have come after closing time ?



I think it was meant to indicate that sometimes (quite often)
a wave will subdivide into 5 legs before it is complete.

This happens most often in the 3rd wave.

so the sequence becomes
1/2
1/2/3/4/5 -making 3
4
5

this makes up a '9' wave sequence.

but if only life were that simple.

 

[wellshot]

high chartman

quick reply
yes you can have 9 waves [and 11] but they will likiely as not amount to overlapping waves as in a correction wave
and not labeled 123456789 but with abc etc
if the whole wave is impulsive [not overlapping] and one of either 1 3 or 5 extends then some will label them12345678910111213 as there will be 13 in the full run..in the end i've seen so many people count differently as there is so much to elliott and few practice it well..myself included i'm sorry to say...we're all learning

the divergence that should mark a wave end is missing sometimes
and i'm still trying to work out why..love your charts at the close...it's balancing my obsesive interest in elliott!

 

[wellshot]

yes

bonsai put it better!

chartman please
what spread are you used to? 5points or 6?
when you spread bet....i must admit i find it very difficult at times justifying my trades at d4f as i'll make 1 pt on what maybe a 15 pt move !! do you have tis too??
please let me know if willing..who do you use?
thank you..i'm still in the middle of opening an acount with IB as the smaller spreads will encourage me to trade more and with confidence [i don't care about the commissions...just get the trade on, stu!!!]
thanks again

 

[bonsai]

here is an example of 3rd wave
smaller waves in pink

but the complexities of elliott can make the mind boggle
when it comes to knowing what to trade next.

so a lot to be said for counting to 5 and calling it a day.

 

[ChartMan]

WellShot, I use Finspreads, But I'm gonna switch to Capital. Scalping SB is real HARD. I have the benefit of experience that helps me when I need it (want it). Now and again, I just scalp for fun, just to make sure the SB boys are playing the game! Yes it's suicide, but it's fun. Getting the position size right is important. Too small, and there's no fear/no point. Too big and there's no chance- fear becomes the over riding emotion.
If you get the chance another time, having made a nice wedge on a big rise, try scalping the 3 pk ND top. OK, so you don't know it's "one of those" until the third cycle, but we all know after a decent move, we'll see a peak on price and RSI peak up at 70/80. Wait for the dip and try and anticipate it from ES ( or YM) futures. You can quite easily get a neutral bias quote. ( ie dow at 500, you get 497/503).Go long, and wait until you see the second peak ( again, (use ES futs.). You should be able to get upto about 5 points.( NO bias against you either way- with D4F you can see the bias change! With Fins you can't get the prices quick enough) The secret is not to be greedy!!!. If it looks like reversing when you're 2 points to the good, take it. Needles to say, play small, please,

 

[DUM TRADER]

I cant see how anyone can make money from spreadbetting intraday. You just throwing money away when you place a bet you down 8 points. The only way you can make money with the SB companies is on position trades I will agree they great for that but scalping you throwing money away.

Edited ChartMan.
This is not the thread for getting into SB arguments. The next two posts have been deleted.

 

[wellshot]

thank you

chartman...for your views...d4f spread is 5 pts but then so is capital spreads..any reason to prefer them?
if it helps , d4f have intra day charting on all indices+uk/usa stocks
[except the nasdaq comp-they have the nasdaq100], but more importantly, their daily cash dow mirrors the CBOT e minis dow futures YM chart..the numbers are different but the turns wave lengths are within half a point always from my study-in other words i follow the YM using esignal and ignore the numbers and use d4f's merely as a reference after the event so to speak....as i say the wave lengths are the same so the differences are the same on d4f.v.YM
the differences come when comparing [as you know] d4f/YM with the cash dow! and especially on elliott as waves are added or missing and the open seems forever to unfold as an expanded flat [i.e. whipsawing taking out stops from both sides!!]
hope that helps
those 9 waves up 100pt gain are easily divided into wave 1+wave 2[retrace] then wave 3 extending..but wave 4 which i mentioned on my last chart became complex,and so much so [TS's double bottom] that it could be seen as an X wave making the 100pt move part of a corrective rather than impulsive wave
this has important because we could be seeing D up[78%retracement back up to the high 10700] with "E" to come off then big up past 10700...but as we're trading the 1 min it doesn't really matter that much !!!

 

[wellshot]

chartman

i'll hopefully be able to draw a chart showing the 9 wave thing +the overall elliott counts [for what they're worth!!] for your monday morning new week thread