tradesmart
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As rustic1 says, the US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
Closed my longs at 10590 (twice!)
Might well gap up on Tuesday; things are currently very bullish and they often come back from holidays in a good mood :cheesy: !
Good luck to anyone who holds long over the weekend!
edit - the bull flag target of 10595 (mentioned earlier) has been easily met at the close (and more!), but you needed a strong nerve to hold long as it did not go by the direct route (does it ever?) Must confess that I closed the 1st 10550 long at 19.30 and took another at 10560 (20.00) - well, you can't just trust it can you?
Closed my longs at 10590 (twice!)
Might well gap up on Tuesday; things are currently very bullish and they often come back from holidays in a good mood :cheesy: !
Good luck to anyone who holds long over the weekend!
edit - the bull flag target of 10595 (mentioned earlier) has been easily met at the close (and more!), but you needed a strong nerve to hold long as it did not go by the direct route (does it ever?) Must confess that I closed the 1st 10550 long at 19.30 and took another at 10560 (20.00) - well, you can't just trust it can you?
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Good commentary, TS and Mom. Just a couple of points for Mom. That divergence you took was ok, but do you appreciate that the d/bottom with div. is unlikely to end up as a trend change? The "w" you have to anticipate at the 2nd low. You did this, as divergence and d/bottom. At the time, it's only a possibility that it's gonna make a "W". You already know the target, you don't have to wait. it was 595. Having gone through 564, there was nothing to stop it going straight to 595. Therefore the rollover at 583 signalled failure. Oh, and a great call on 540 bottom/ 10 min support.
I've now seen a possibility of a change in the channel slope. Does this mean that the push up is weakening? With Dow and ES closing at HOD and on decent volume, the weekend hold looks a fair bet.
Tuesday? well, considering the pundits et al say the dow is overvalued, here is an opportunity for the MMs to make a killing.... The triangle that TS pointed out has a target of 650. Just enough to persuade all the retail punters to pile in. Then the mms can drop the price and make a killing..... going sub 600.
I've now seen a possibility of a change in the channel slope. Does this mean that the push up is weakening? With Dow and ES closing at HOD and on decent volume, the weekend hold looks a fair bet.
Tuesday? well, considering the pundits et al say the dow is overvalued, here is an opportunity for the MMs to make a killing.... The triangle that TS pointed out has a target of 650. Just enough to persuade all the retail punters to pile in. Then the mms can drop the price and make a killing..... going sub 600.
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Mom, do you trade IB or SB?.....
Relatively safe gamble short on the open divergence,the stop being the seemingly impenetrable 600 and 10 min channel support. The hard decision is whether to close or not at 63, the prior tiny pullback clearly failing the theoretical target of sub 540. Is this a case for closing half and letting half run? This is where stake size is important. Who wants to take a 50% pullback? On the other hand, a stop and reverse is generally suicide with SB....It's a complex issue. With the correct position size, there is a reasonable expectation of a move to support, which we eventually got at 10,545. Although the long at 543 earlier provided the optimal long entry, the apparent 3 pk divergence was cancelled as RSI dropped to 20. The 545 at 16:47 did meet the divergence criteria and was at 10 min support by way of secondary confirmation. The next moves? A close on the PD and a re- entry into a long on the next 10 min support bounce at 560, holding into the close. That 1 min triangle at the close has a target of 630. By the time Tuesday comes, I think it will be irrelevant....
Relatively safe gamble short on the open divergence,the stop being the seemingly impenetrable 600 and 10 min channel support. The hard decision is whether to close or not at 63, the prior tiny pullback clearly failing the theoretical target of sub 540. Is this a case for closing half and letting half run? This is where stake size is important. Who wants to take a 50% pullback? On the other hand, a stop and reverse is generally suicide with SB....It's a complex issue. With the correct position size, there is a reasonable expectation of a move to support, which we eventually got at 10,545. Although the long at 543 earlier provided the optimal long entry, the apparent 3 pk divergence was cancelled as RSI dropped to 20. The 545 at 16:47 did meet the divergence criteria and was at 10 min support by way of secondary confirmation. The next moves? A close on the PD and a re- entry into a long on the next 10 min support bounce at 560, holding into the close. That 1 min triangle at the close has a target of 630. By the time Tuesday comes, I think it will be irrelevant....
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tradesmart
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"That divergence you took was ok, but do you appreciate that the d/bottom with div. is unlikely to end up as a trend change"
Huh? I thought that a dbl bottom was usualy always a sign of trend change - together with divergence I thought it would be a certainty. I'm obviously missing something here - can u pls explain?
In any case, I closed but didn't go long - thought I'd wait a bit and also because we were nowhere near channel support - closed just to be on the safe side.
Went long at the channel bottom, got a bit nervous as it bounced of 100 MA twice and dropped - but this time my stop was 10 below channel bottom - so it worked
Hung in there till it started testig '64 - decided to close. Went long on triangle break and then a cpl of trades at top and bottom.
Must admit, I was on a roll yesterday - just wish I could be consistent - but I think I've cracked the stop policy so here's hoping.
CM, I trade SB.
Cheers
Huh? I thought that a dbl bottom was usualy always a sign of trend change - together with divergence I thought it would be a certainty. I'm obviously missing something here - can u pls explain?
In any case, I closed but didn't go long - thought I'd wait a bit and also because we were nowhere near channel support - closed just to be on the safe side.
Went long at the channel bottom, got a bit nervous as it bounced of 100 MA twice and dropped - but this time my stop was 10 below channel bottom - so it worked
Hung in there till it started testig '64 - decided to close. Went long on triangle break and then a cpl of trades at top and bottom.
Must admit, I was on a roll yesterday - just wish I could be consistent - but I think I've cracked the stop policy so here's hoping.
CM, I trade SB.
Cheers
Yes, the dbl bottom /short div will reverse, but is it the "real bottom"?.... All you can count on here is the reversal. To get the real bottom, you have to wait for the 3 peaks. Nothing wrong with what you did, just nit picking. Great to see you've cracked the "get out quick" problem.... not easy with SB. In fact, SB is an all round pig, to say the least. Often a case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't"
A quick return to my previously favourite thread.
CM - you mentioned the suicidal tendancies of a "stop and reverse" with SB. I would like to emphasise this to all other readers. I tried this a number of times in October last year and got absolutely spanked!
Do not try this at home!
Parental guidance recommended!
No liability assumed!
Cheers
Q
CM - you mentioned the suicidal tendancies of a "stop and reverse" with SB. I would like to emphasise this to all other readers. I tried this a number of times in October last year and got absolutely spanked!
Do not try this at home!
Parental guidance recommended!
No liability assumed!
Cheers
Q
Chaps,
To recap, we've got a potential bull triangle on the DOW. I figure on 4 possible scenarios :
1 - CM's theory that MM's will snap price up, pull in longs and snap them down again - bull trap.
2 - Must be some major shorts at 10,600 - if that goes, then shorts r gonna have to cover. Could see a big fast rise in the dow if that happens. Where it stops? Dunno.
3 - Triangle breakdown - that will be news dependant - probably.
4 - Nuffin happens - triangle fizzles out.
I'm betting on (2) - Haven't held over the weekend / monday but hoping there's no gap up and the triangle breaks to the upside gently so can get onboard
All IMHO. As always, trade what u see.
Cheers.
To recap, we've got a potential bull triangle on the DOW. I figure on 4 possible scenarios :
1 - CM's theory that MM's will snap price up, pull in longs and snap them down again - bull trap.
2 - Must be some major shorts at 10,600 - if that goes, then shorts r gonna have to cover. Could see a big fast rise in the dow if that happens. Where it stops? Dunno.
3 - Triangle breakdown - that will be news dependant - probably.
4 - Nuffin happens - triangle fizzles out.
I'm betting on (2) - Haven't held over the weekend / monday but hoping there's no gap up and the triangle breaks to the upside gently so can get onboard
All IMHO. As always, trade what u see.
Cheers.
