Dow 2008

[Hook Shot]

Capital One Financial

Since some of you might be sceptical about my aborted Bear Sterns post..... hows about watching Capital One Financial (cof) which made a minor swing high today above $51 .....i see $48 now on delyaed quote.....

Could be interesting

If I'm really really lucky I'll come close to emulating 2468Steve's monsta call on Citigroup (it fell over 50%)

Edit:tesco hits 52wL and walmart still riding high......... watch that trading range on (Wmt) ...

 

[Atilla]

Since some of you might be sceptical about my aborted Bear Sterns post..... hows about watching Capital One Financial (cof) which made a minor swing high today above $51 .....i see $48 now on delyaed quote.....

Could be interesting

If I'm really really lucky I'll come close to emulating 2468Steve's monsta call on Citigroup (it fell over 50%)

Edit:tesco hits 52wL and walmart still riding high......... watch that trading range on (Wmt) ...

Q&A: Bear Stearns banking crisis

Explains why market had biggest rise in last 5 years eh?

 

[chilltrader]

Sell and Sell Short!!

Looking for 11000 on DOW soon.

 

[chilltrader]

...and 5K on FTSE

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

The news couldn't be much worse so are we likely to have a bounce this week? :cheesy: No I don't think so as most people can see through the noise that is generated. Here are some Blooomberg headlines below.

Paulson Says Market Stability Is `No. 1 Priority,' Defends Bear Lifeline

Housing Starts in U.S. Probably Slid to 17-Year Low,

Factory Output Fell Bear Stearns Bailout Was Necessary as `Finger in the Dike,'

China's Citic Securities `Can't Guarantee' It Will Invest in Bear Stearns

Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Should Scrap Pegs to Dollar, Faber Says

What are the options open to the Fed now? negative interest rates. With inflation rearing it's head despite last weeks suprise announcement I think the recession and inflationary pressures will far out weigh any stability concerns. At least in my opinion. Pumping more money will only result in a worse outcome than ever.

On a technical level as per the first chart the two red line patterns is what I expect to be repeated. So far it's very much panning out according to what was envisage imo. History does repeat it self.

I expect the markets to trend down to the purple line around 10,000. Sometimes I wonder if 10K will hold?

On the second daily chart I can see the DOW has bounced off the blue support line. I have also drawn a new black neckline for the bigger H&S reversal that may now play out at 12000-12100 levels. If this blue support line is breached down I can also see how the red line may in the short term act as resistance to any subsequent rises. Thus I can't see markets rising much above 12300-12500 at tops even if we do get a mammoth rate cut from the Fed which would be absolutely the worst medicine they can administer...

Good trading everyone...

 

[bottomleyp]

Usd/jpy

Hi Guys

Going to be a tricky week to call on the indices. This comment should not be
on this board, but my thought for tonight is the value of the USD/JPY pair.
My view, which is only a hunch, is it the dollar will not fall much further because the banks are going to prop up the dollar, especially when USD/JPY fall below 100.
Any views !

 

[theroguetrader]

usd/jpy - (JUNE -08)

Hi Guys

Going to be a tricky week to call on the indices. This comment should not be
on this board, but my thought for tonight is the value of the USD/JPY pair.
My view, which is only a hunch, is it the dollar will not fall much further because the banks are going to prop up the dollar, especially when USD/JPY fall below 100.
Any views !

looking at a daily chart, one candle per day - from the 28/FEB, its fallen nearly 800 pips in like 12 consecutive candles - the MAs are still pointing downward and a triangle is forming on the downside - the 20 and the 40 day MA are still curved downwards - so it looks as though the pair should still be in a downtrend for a bit -

 

[bottomleyp]

RogueTrader - Totally agree with your analysis, but if no dollar intervention, the
Nikeii will plummet big time. Suspect this will be prevented.
Taken a chance with my theory and have gone long at 9881, with no stop. Just checked, down 30 points, oh dear !

 

[theroguetrader]

RogueTrader - Totally agree with your analysis, but if no dollar intervention, the
Nikeii will plummet big time. Suspect this will be prevented.
Taken a chance with my theory and have gone long at 9881, with no stop. Just checked, down 30 points, oh dear !

I see what you mean totally yep, looking at the chart tho, the 20 day MA doesnt seem to be catching up with the price at all and its still curving downwards - so id still be short (i think) :idea:

 

[theroguetrader]

RogueTrader - Totally agree with your analysis, but if no dollar intervention, the
Nikeii will plummet big time. Suspect this will be prevented.
Taken a chance with my theory and have gone long at 9881, with no stop. Just checked, down 30 points, oh dear !

i wish id got on at 10630.5 :-0:-0 - like the pirate ship at Alton Towers - im gonna have to wait till it swings back again -

 

[grantx]

Atilla,

Get this from Reuters:

"last week...Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson...[said] a strong dollar was in the nation's best interest, and healthy long-term U.S. fundamentals would be reflected in exchange rates". Conversely, weak long-term fundamentals would also be reflected in exchange rates. Indeed they are, Henry.

Dollar caught in Fed, ECB cross-fire | Reuters

You TA guys are making projections and assumptions from previous prices to extrapolate, but ignore current unique factors. I'm afraid I find it somewhat hard to reconcile and accept, chaps.

Grant.

 

[theroguetrader]

Atilla,

Get this from Reuters:

"last week...Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson...[said] a strong dollar was in the nation's best interest, and healthy long-term U.S. fundamentals would be reflected in exchange rates". Conversely, weak long-term fundamentals would also be reflected in exchange rates. Indeed they are, Henry.

Dollar caught in Fed, ECB cross-fire | Reuters

You TA guys are making projections and assumptions from previous prices to extrapolate, but ignore current unique factors. I'm afraid I find it somewhat hard to reconcile and accept, chaps.

Grant.

Hey Grant,

but surely those " current unique factors " will be factored into its price no..? in real time - as we see it..?
Like say if a company issues a profits warning - you can see that in its chart before the news gets out because the price will have started to weaken and that can be seen by the direction of its MA beforehand, so a trader could start to take short positions on that stock say - they wouldnt be acting on any kind of " insider information ", just the price would be showing weakness -
or is that not a way of looking at it..?


James

 

[Atilla]

Hey Grant,

but surely those " current unique factors " will be factored into its price no..? in real time - as we see it..?
Like say if a company issues a profits warning - you can see that in its chart before the news gets out because the price will have started to weaken and that can be seen by the direction of its MA beforehand, so a trader could start to take short positions on that stock say - they wouldnt be acting on any kind of " insider information ", just the price would be showing weakness -
or is that not a way of looking at it..?


James

Precisely the case.

"last week...Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson...[said] a strong dollar was in the nation's best interest, and healthy long-term U.S. fundamentals would be reflected in exchange rates". Conversely, weak long-term fundamentals would also be reflected in exchange rates. Indeed they are, Henry.

This statement in red carries a paradox (or an untruth as we may call it. Bit underlined.)

US Long-term outlook far from healthy. More unhealthy than anything else. AND

Fundamentals are reflected in the exchange rates which is why the dollar is tanking.


Similarly with the money injection to save the banks and DOW having the biggest dailiy rise in five years. You have to read between the lines.

These guys may be bankers but they are also damn politicians just doing their joab!

 

[bottomleyp]

Closed USD/JPY position, 20 pips profit, too volatile for me !

 

[theroguetrader]

Closed USD/JPY position, 20 pips profit, too volatile for me !

hey thats cool, 20 is 20 no..?

 

[Hook Shot]

S&p futs getting absol caned as are euro indices but dow still above last week's lows - opp or not

This aint making sense my models (Stacy in particular) are adamant we should break 730 given the rest of the action on global indices but it hasn't happened...... (yet) ?

 

[theroguetrader]

DJI - (17/3)


I would say,looking at a daily chart - it would have been best to be short from the 12/3 - which is only 4 candles away.(about 375 points now ish) -
The 40 day MA is still curving downwards, but the 40 day is still curving, but starting to weaken off a bit .!!
The price isnt starting to catch up with either MA, so id still be short -

On an hourly chart - a triangle has formed and broken to the downside, and the price is starting to catch up with the 20 day MA ..!! id still be short - but keep an eye on it... !!


The " BIG " position on the DJI - using a daily chart - would have been way over by now - !!

2nd JAN - 21 JAN - 1645 points short - (just 16 odd candles) - PHEW......... !! :-0

 

[Hook Shot]

Phew.........

S&p futs getting absol caned as are euro indices but dow still above last week's lows - opp or not

This aint making sense my models (Stacy in particular) are adamant we should break 730 given the rest of the action on global indices but it hasn't happened...... (yet) ?

I was starting to think I didnt know what I was talking about lol:) - it might be pre trade just but 730 is now gone .........:clap::clap:

 

[Pat494]

Don't worry - the same old story of the Fatcats living off the rest of us - usually the taxpayer. Even if there is another 1929 crash they will have squirreled away sufficient to keep themselves in clover for the duration.
As for the rest - well there's always soup kitchens, alchohol, drugs and the American dream bull**** etc.

Nothing changes - just the faces

 

[Hook Shot]

You're one of the lucky ones.........!

Don't worry - the same old story of the Fatcats living off the rest of us - usually the taxpayer. Even if there is another 1929 crash they will have squirreled away sufficient to keep themselves in clover for the duration.
As for the rest - well there's always soup kitchens, alchohol, drugs and the American dream bull**** etc.

Nothing changes - just the faces

- at least you understand the game .... and more importantly can profit from it !!:cheesy: