Dow 2008

[theroguetrader]

Caught every point possible yesterday at £400 per point personally

Lets try and keeps trades realtime, eh?

sure thing - maybe you could post a few of your own " real time " trades as well ..?? - we could compare stopping distances -

 

[jonnyy40]

'Trading' bulletin boards would like to claim they're about sharing but it's not quite the case? Zero sum game etc.

 

[theroguetrader]

What timeframe are you using for looking at candlestick formations?

Hi there, hows things going..? daily is the shortest timeframe i look at usually - !!
(apologies for last night) -


James

 

[firewalker99]

'Trading' bulletin boards would like to claim they're about sharing but it's not quite the case? Zero sum game etc.

Perhaps that's what you've experienced, but it's not what I have. There are numerous persons sharing their knowledge each day here. Ofcourse it's necessary you take the effort to look...

 

[Hook Shot]

Clash of Styles/Timeframes ?

in real time they are - !!

Please tell me where to get off as the charts are in the wrong place for a long term trade for me, so im at the mercy of the candles - :|

Based on slow stochs - which is not a hyperactive indicator - a low for a rally was a distinct possibility ....I think I said within 48hrs ...

Whilst I did not go long near the bottom |)I had to applaud someone who did .... cos the risk was fairly low - using stops (possibly ~ 40pts depending on risk appetite) and the upside for a "multi day" player was pretty good.

The speed of the move was a bit of good fortune clover: :cheesy clearly but that move was in the works ... as I waffled about at the time ......... when a certain doggy fellow was getting very bearish ..

Good one RT
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The S&p is slamming into that underside of the old trading range ......... (everyone can see the potential for overbought near term so I'l skip that..... )

Point is spx needs to solidly regain (break and hold) 1320...... FIRST.

Okay It sounds silly/obvious cos that's where we closed but it stuck out on the charts for me. Sort of simillar to my observation about the ftse yesterday in advance (better than real time ).

Lastly ........ the spx futs have hit around 50% retrate circa 1331 today not sure if it matters or will matter but thought i'd just SHARE it worthless though it may be ........

Good Trading Everyone !

 

[Hook Shot]

Real time ........

Point is spx needs to solidly regain (break and hold) 1320...... FIRST.

Here we are..... probably key moment for the day ........ ??

 

[Hook Shot]

As we toy with Spx 1320 ...... I just read a piece about Bernanke speaking about impending bank failures.........he says only small banks whereas Wilbur Ross intimated small, medium size deposit takers will fail and quite a few too on the next crisis in Commercial Prop.! He also felt that some big banks will come VERY close to wipeout.... but will be saved by the skin of their teeth by fed and overseas capital. Check out Wilbur Ross video on Cnbc (where he and Hank Greenberg are interviewed)

I wonder how market will respond when this comes into the mainstream - when the penny really drops.... ?
Dow 12, 205 .......

Ross joins Rogers, Soros and the rest saying the US economy will be sick for a while.....

 

[breadman]

i think their is a real chance that banks in the US could fail. The dollar index could go down to around the 50 mark when the recession really kicks in in 2009, 2010, 2011. this in turn will stop foreign investors from buy treasuries which will cause interest rates to go up. This will make the down turn worse. I have read articles which have said their is a chance the US could default on some of these debt instruments over the next 3 years. If they do all hell will break loose.

 

[firewalker99]

DOW's biggest gain days...

Yesterday was one of the greatest gain days for the DOW.
It's interesting to note that almost all of the biggest gain days ever took place in a bear market:

Dow Jones Indexes

I'll let the numbers speak for themselves...

 

[Hook Shot]

Some great points from the loafer....

i think their is a real chance that banks in the US could fail. The dollar index could go down to around the 50 mark when the recession really kicks in in 2009, 2010, 2011. this in turn will stop foreign investors from buy treasuries which will cause interest rates to go up. This will make the down turn worse. I have read articles which have said their is a chance the US could default on some of these debt instruments over the next 3 years. If they do all hell will break loose.

I heard that one of the ratings agencies (Moody's ?) expected to downgrade US sovereign debt within 10yrs...... given that it would make sense (4them) to sugar-coat the pill - it could easily happen within 3yrs ........ (Well spotted).

Bill Gross, Pimco - has said that US budget deficits will soar over the few years - even if they get an austerity regime from the new prez! Bloomberg interview ...

Foreign investors must see this already ..... especially given that it been on the horizon since Greenie mentioned it at a few of his testimonies on the hill........

Where does their liquidity go to though if not into US debt ?

 

[Hook Shot]

Closet anorak....

Yesterday was one of the greatest gain days for the DOW.
It's interesting to note that almost all of the biggest gain days ever took place in a bear market:

Dow Jones Indexes

I'll let the numbers speak for themselves...

Good work FW:cheesy:
We could do with more stattos/anoraks on the boards..... genuinely!

 

[firewalker99]

Good work FW:cheesy:
We could do with more stattos/anoraks on the boards..... genuinely!

Next post will be about the biggest down days ever

 

[Atilla]

Next post will be about the biggest down days ever

Looking at the weekly and daily moves these break downs are very severe. 12300 got rejected imo.

The money injection based on what is written is not to stimulate the economy or avoid a recession but can more accurately be described as saving the banking system from total collapse.

Guess it's simply financial spin. Fantastic if you ask me. You take a dramatically bad peace of news and make it look all so positive such that the DOW has the biggest rise in five years.

What do I know... :whistling

 

[Hook Shot]

From here 12010 around +300 to keep the rally in motion ........... will 12k hold ?

Gut feel says we might get surprise from here and test 12, 100 again before anything else.

Trend watchers would say 2d counter trend failed significantly Hello 11730 at least ......... but ... lets see...

 

[catracho]

Looks like the FED "package" is being seen for what it is - a last ditch attempt at salvaging certain financial institutions in the US...

I guess next thing is 75-100 bp cut next week? - for another one day wonder?

for me would still like to see panic and a break of Jan lows, going long will need to feel uncomfortable for a few days/week...then it MAY be right

 

[firewalker99]

As we toy with Spx 1320 ...... .

SPX just back at 1320 as we speak... up almost 40 points from it's intraday lows

 

[firewalker99]

Next post will be about the biggest down days ever

Like I said... :cheesy:
450 point fall in just over 35 minutes.

I'll have to check my stats, but that's a pretty sharp fall!

 

[Hook Shot]

Not only did I tellyou guys about spx 1320 and it's potential significance..... but i was gonna post about Bear Stearns ....I didn't cos most board watchers don't seem to trade stox..... the rest as they say is history........ Did I trade it NO!

I knew it was probably bust from news and counter news - and I feared a bailout before it really crashed.............. it would have required a lot of attention.

 

[firewalker99]

Not only did I tellyou guys about spx 1320 and it's potential significance..... but i was gonna post about Bear Stearns ....I didn't cos most board watchers don't seem to trade stox..... the rest as they say is history........ Did I trade it NO!

I knew it was probably bust from news and counter news - and I feared a bailout before it really crashed.............. it would have required a lot of attention.

1320 was important indeed, but note how we managed to break higher, which meant we were back into another resistance level around 1331-1335. I took a short from there, didn't quite let it run all the way down though

I don't know how wide stops for swing traders are, but if you're short from 1320 I can imagine being stopped out at 1331 or not would've either made or ruined your day...

 

[Hook Shot]

The Fiery Monsta...!

1320 was important indeed, but note how we managed to break higher, which meant we were back into another resistance level around 1331-1335. I took a short from there, didn't quite let it run all the way down though

I don't know how wide stops for swing traders are, but if you're short from 1320 I can imagine being stopped out at 1331 or not would've either made or ruined your day...

FW - your point about wide (or otherwise) stops for swingers was addressed by me several weeks or months ago....... you inspired me to re-visit my approach and to improve it's efficiency - sort of a Kai-Zen thing. So it was a small loss as 1320cash got washed away intraday...... and waited for the next one cos i also hinted 1331/2 on futs might work since it worked in premarket...after a small overshoot it worked and the earlier loss waws swamped by profits. As for today done nothing just watched and made the odd inane post and sent the odd silly email.

I like wild markets but sometimes my hands start to shake .... and I've learned not to do much on those days no matter how inviting the market. Incidentally, the much discussed Rogue Trader "inspired" me to get back to following The Yellow Brick Road !

He does not appear to make a lot of trades but he seems to bag plenty of points ...:smart: Reminds me of Cat