Dow 2007

[firewalker99]

Nice trending day so far...

Took a first long after the news... then blamed myself for getting out (much) too soon...
re-entered now...hope not too late want to grab some more... perhaps a nice push up higher near the end


Edit: would like to see cash at 13000...

 

[Atilla]

Well, if you do...be sure to tell him that your 'emotions were out' & your 'stops were in'. :cheesy:

So so true ... but

I didn't have stops in place although I was hovering around the house and near my trusted terminal

and

My emoitions were all over my big cheshire cat's grin. Much like yours actually.

Oscar does give out the updates for free and he has been pretty accurate. Before placing trades on the SPX, I now check with my uncle Oscar's OMNI... Sanity check kinda thang

:idea: Internet Explorer version 7 and it allows you to have multiple home pages. So I have added it as a home page and it's always there.

 

[firewalker99]

Me read somewhere today that Dow is likely to take large move downward on thursday. 15% was figure suggests. Is this going to be so?

Never believe anything you read.
But if it should turn lower 15% on Thursday let me know your source

 

[firewalker99]

done trending for today...

and selling into the close
hmm :|

 

[Dinos]

Mixed messages on my set up, short term 1 through 15 mins down, 30 - no mans land, 60, 3 0f my 5 indicators down, with last nights results, no doubt a spike up early trading, I'll be looking to short and will stay out of the market until conditions met, £13K today?, wouldn't be suprised.

 

[hobby]

It'd be poetry if yesterday's high was it! (10.14 points away from 13k)....stranger things have happened.

While over this side of the pond, the DAX seems to be levelling out - it was leading the Dow by approx 120ish points (therefore rebased about 180 Dow points), but it's now more or less re-aligned. The fact that the DAX has simmered down a bit, gives me a little more confidence towards thinking about shorting the Dow.

Trouble in the IBEX seems to be dampening the DAX (Spanish housing stock woes)....a few German construction companies getting whacked. It was interesting that the night before last the Oz dollar was weak...which hinted that the carry trade might be starting to unwind (again)....that's the biggie, once that starts it'll be viscious & the fallout MASSIVE.

Then there's the 15% aformentioned Dow fall pencilled in for tomorrow!

 

[Pat494]

Then there's the 15% aformentioned Dow fall pencilled in for tomorrow!

Mixed signals on mine too - usually indicates to me oscillations, which can get one chasing around 1/2 lap behind and totally wrong like yesterday.

I think the 15% fall is a bit fanciful though barring WW3 ?

 

[hobby]

I think the 15% fall is a bit fanciful though barring WW3 ?

Whilst it was only a passing (lightweight) comment, I don't think a one day fall of 15% is fanciful at all. The longer these indices punch on up regardless of the forward looking news flow, the more chance of a one day slamming.

Look at Shanghai in Feb 9% overnight
Look what happened to Spanish Real Estate stocks yesterday - Sacyr, fell 8.15pc, developers Colonial and Inmocaral plunged over 11pc. (while Astroc have fallen 62% since last week alone)

The trigger? erhm nothing....just a change in sentiment that valuations were getting a bit toppy, then it becomes, worry, fear, panic, chaos.

Remember in Feb we had the Dow down 4.5% (intraday) during one session....that was the rehearsal. :cheesy:

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

5% would be OK for starters...

 

[Atilla]

Whilst it was only a passing (lightweight) comment, I don't think a one day fall of 15% is fanciful at all. The longer these indices punch on up regardless of the forward looking news flow, the more chance of a one day slamming.

Look at Shanghai in Feb 9% overnight
Look what happened to Spanish Real Estate stocks yesterday - Sacyr, fell 8.15pc, developers Colonial and Inmocaral plunged over 11pc. (while Astroc have fallen 62% since last week alone)

The trigger? erhm nothing....just a change in sentiment that valuations were getting a bit toppy, then it becomes, worry, fear, panic, chaos.

Remember in Feb we had the Dow down 4.5% (intraday) during one session....that was the rehearsal. :cheesy:

Fib retrace to 61% = 11600 = 10% text book correction

15% correction = 11050 that would be a first I think.

However, I've had my eye on 11711 for some time now and really believe it will happen sometime this year. From it's current 13000 levels that is approx 9.75% correction.

Finally, 2nd May is a full moon day. That's next Wednesday.

 

[Dinos]

15% seems steep to me, any fall or rise will do me, so long as my charts confirm it and I can catch some of it, we shall see.

 

[Atilla]

15% seems steep to me, any fall or rise will do me, so long as my charts confirm it and I can catch some of it, we shall see.

Trader Tom has an interesting view on the DOW too.

I agree DOW below 12950 he says is worth a short... What am I doing waiting? I dunno. Call me Mr Lemming if you must...

Who's first then? :cheesy:

 

[Dinos]

Atilla, waiting to make your own decisions I hope!!.

I will wait until the market opens, let it impulse and then join on the correction when my indicators all align, until then, I'm on the sideline.

 

[Pat494]

Just checking out Uncle Oscar
Up on the Nasdaq he says

 

[Atilla]

Atilla, waiting to make your own decisions I hope!!.

I will wait until the market opens, let it impulse and then join on the correction when my indicators all align, until then, I'm on the sideline.

I prefer to bravely follow others... :cheesy:

 

[hobby]

Dow daily now priced above 13k on IG following the better than expected durable goods orders (up 3.4%).


I'd expect the Dow to open even higher (+75 to 80?). New housing sales figures at 3.00pm

 

[Atilla]

Just checking out Uncle Oscar
Up on the Nasdaq he says

Yep and I didn't follow his advice.

I think it's based on IBM and AT&T results yesterday.

Don't really trade Nasdaq. Stick to FX, SPX & DOW, OIL and GOLD...

He is good though. Very good. See his daily video? I get worn out just watching his enthusiasm to trade after 25 years...

 

[Dinos]

Atilla, whats the link to oscar/

 

[Atilla]

Atilla, whats the link to oscar/

http://www.futurestraders.com/index.php

Well Tom Traders weak double top has just been blown away.

Apple talking up the Nasdaq.

Here is my projection on the DOW if nelly the elephant continues to fly

 

[firewalker99]

Dow daily now priced above 13k on IG following the better than expected durable goods orders (up 3.4%).


I'd expect the Dow to open even higher (+75 to 80?). New housing sales figures at 3.00pm

DAX has sure risen a lot already, with immediate strength from the opening this morning, so probabilities favour more upside on DOW for me.