Exponential Fibonacci Stochastics ...I guess
Oh cheers by the way
Your welcome kind sir....
Your welcome kind sir....
Atilla
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Check out what i got today
That is ace dude. Top notch. Like it.
Well I had my supper and came back upstairs to check half expecting some give only to see it at 13834 (c). I left it around 13760 somewhere. Blimey.
I'm trying to work it out and please forgive me all the TAs out there.
1. Exports risen - obviously with dollar at record low
2. Retail sales up - liquidity high
Both positive good news for
1. BoP defecit
2. Budget defecit
I haven't looked at the figures and by what % margins but the underlying weakness in the sub-prime market is there coupled with inflationary pressures that will ultimately mount as falling dollar has inflationary consequences.
As people fall out of the dollar standard and oil is valued in Euros in next 5 10 years even more so. (Ok way off time scales but weakness of dollar big threat to US).
Compared to all the bad news when the DOW has risen fundamentally both pieces of news very favourable. Moreover, if this is the result when the $ was hovering around 1.80 and 1.32-35 (£ & € respectively) the next seasons export figures will be considerably better at 2.03-04 and 1.38-1.40.
Firewalker, you must be having the biggest picnic of all mate.
Apparrently the bulls in Spain gored record number of people in their latest run.
I'll be looking to join you tomorrow sometime....option expiry next week which should be down
I think SPX will make a run for it's all time high @ 1553 tomorrow....I got ABC up to 1556 which will take Dow comfortably to around 940....if it makes it anywhere near that I'll give it both barrels......
Best opinion to have m8....each day as it comes....:arrowu: :arrowd: :arrowl: :?:
Atilla
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I agree go with the MAs.
To short it with this level of strength, calling the highs is risky. Very risky imo.
I think it has more upside. Perhaps towards the end of the week. Friday might be interesting with profit takers.
I'm flat and will stay flat. If was going to risk monies by entering a trade I'd be long.
Good trading everyone.
lurkerlurker
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Bucketshops, sleeping, and the Dow
I just got up half an hour ago. Been spending that time reading an email from the bucketshop regarding the "rogue price" trade the other day.
I checked the dow and couldn't believe we hit 13950. I obviously don't understand this market any more, so I am staying flat. I took a short early in the day according to my rules, and it didn't work. I was wanting a position trade so gave it 30 pips room. Down -38 today, which takes a nice bite out of my +66 yesterday.
I'm attaching a chart of my short entry anyway, given that it looked sensible enough to me at the time. It still does look sensible, but I need to drop the idea of picking reversals (even when they appear obvious) from my strategy.
From now on, for any position trade, I will have a clean and unambiguous definition of trend, and will not trade against it without confirmation no matter ho obvious a "top" looks.
Big day on the Dow, and I have no idea what caused this. I am going to watch from the sidelines for a little while while I formulate a strategy.
I hope the bears here didn't get too badly burned.
I just got up half an hour ago. Been spending that time reading an email from the bucketshop regarding the "rogue price" trade the other day.
I checked the dow and couldn't believe we hit 13950. I obviously don't understand this market any more, so I am staying flat. I took a short early in the day according to my rules, and it didn't work. I was wanting a position trade so gave it 30 pips room. Down -38 today, which takes a nice bite out of my +66 yesterday.
I'm attaching a chart of my short entry anyway, given that it looked sensible enough to me at the time. It still does look sensible, but I need to drop the idea of picking reversals (even when they appear obvious) from my strategy.
From now on, for any position trade, I will have a clean and unambiguous definition of trend, and will not trade against it without confirmation no matter ho obvious a "top" looks.
Big day on the Dow, and I have no idea what caused this. I am going to watch from the sidelines for a little while while I formulate a strategy.
I hope the bears here didn't get too badly burned.
Attachments
lurkerlurker
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Check out what i got today
Very nice Kevin. I have to manage with three at the moment. It looks as though 3/4 of your monitors are displaying the same image.
How are you getting on teaching the old man to trade?
Have you considered either showing us your YM system or starting a journal? I am sure we would appreciate your contribution. Of course, you are probably too busy with trading to post too much about it!
Atilla
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Hi LL,
Based on the trading rules when you made the +66, you should not have gone short today. Even yesterday evening the 4 hour charts were looking bullish and 13600 on cash calls was in sight and it was about 13607 around 10pm.
Today's 4 hour charts and the weeklies based on those DEMA and MACD line rules were both buys. As shown by green arrows. If you didn't go in by 13620 then breach of 13650 area making higher highs would definately have been 100% confirmation.
Did say last night that if I were to trade I would go long above 13600 (C). Not bragging but the point I would make is once you hit on a simple system you have got to follow the rules. You have changed charts and indicators in less than a day. With due respect WHY? 240 pip up day on the DOW and you make a loss by going short.
Go back to the rules. When price is above DEMA(8) no way or reason to go short. I mean price had not even broken below the DEMA(8 - 21 or 34) so why go short?
I am dissapointed for your loss.
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Kevin21
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it wasn't too bad actually. Was an easy day because the markets trended nicely. I traded just two markets and we came out with 172pts from the dow and 567pts from the spmib. Like i say, not a lot of action, just clear sailing so we only did 5 trades. I wish everyday was as easy as this lol. I might give the nikkei a miss tonight, but i know if i do i'll miss out a cannie amount of points.
I will get round to writing a journal, it's just a matter of finding the time because a lot of days i'll make around 100 trades in total and trade for around 15hrs. I use the same system on all markets, as long as the market is moving i don't care what it is- points = money. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger. If you just worry about not loosing money then you'll never make any. Obviously don't be reckless... Have a plan and stick to it.
Just my thoughts anyway...
I will get round to writing a journal, it's just a matter of finding the time because a lot of days i'll make around 100 trades in total and trade for around 15hrs. I use the same system on all markets, as long as the market is moving i don't care what it is- points = money. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger. If you just worry about not loosing money then you'll never make any. Obviously don't be reckless... Have a plan and stick to it.
Just my thoughts anyway...
lurkerlurker
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I'm a dunce - I've just noticed the long entry
Red face here. Time to try and justify that short trade. I traded price, volume, and tick on a 5m chart. I am not to day trade, and I am not to use a 5m chart. Why did I end up doing that - I think if anyone could answer that I could, and I can't.
I do seem to be rather a slow learner in this game. +60 from following a good system and using my own judgement, then -29 for being silly. The +6 was more of a scalp, and the -9 was a botched news trade, so they don't really count. I have given back half the profits on a silly trade. Again, I'm quite pissed off at myself. I need to learn to follow the rules.
At turning points you can see all the MAs line up squash together and cross. When you are trading the weeklies you need to have patients of a mountain. This is going from one extreme to another.
1. First price crosses MAs - all three.
2. Then MAs cross over.
3. MACD lines also have to be in the right direction.
I traded against the trend. More unkindly, I tried to pick a top. Enough said. Should I place any more trades this week, and I don't know that I will, they will be in the direction of the trend only, and early enough that I get in for a good part of the move (ie MA cross).
I've just assessed your system, and it looks like I should have taken 150 out of that market with a 50 point stoploss. I will trade only this system over the next few weeks while I give more thought to position trading. Thanks for giving me this system, and sorry for being too much of a dunce to follow it today!
Hi LL,
Based on the trading rules when you made the +66, you should not have gone short today. Even yesterday evening the 4 hour charts were looking bullish and 13600 on cash calls was in sight and it was about 13607 around 10pm.
Today's 4 hour charts and the weeklies based on those DEMA and MACD line rules were both buys. As shown by green arrows. If you didn't go in by 13620 then breach of 13650 area making higher highs would definately have been 100% confirmation.
Did say last night that if I were to trade I would go long above 13600 (C). Not bragging but the point I would make is once you hit on a simple system you have got to follow the rules. You have changed charts and indicators in less than a day. With due respect WHY? 240 pip up day on the DOW and you make a loss by going short.
Go back to the rules. When price is above DEMA(8) no way or reason to go short. I mean price had not even broken below the DEMA(8 - 21 or 34) so why go short?
I am dissapointed for your loss.
Red face here. Time to try and justify that short trade. I traded price, volume, and tick on a 5m chart. I am not to day trade, and I am not to use a 5m chart. Why did I end up doing that - I think if anyone could answer that I could, and I can't.
I do seem to be rather a slow learner in this game. +60 from following a good system and using my own judgement, then -29 for being silly. The +6 was more of a scalp, and the -9 was a botched news trade, so they don't really count. I have given back half the profits on a silly trade. Again, I'm quite pissed off at myself. I need to learn to follow the rules.
At turning points you can see all the MAs line up squash together and cross. When you are trading the weeklies you need to have patients of a mountain. This is going from one extreme to another.
1. First price crosses MAs - all three.
2. Then MAs cross over.
3. MACD lines also have to be in the right direction.
I traded against the trend. More unkindly, I tried to pick a top. Enough said. Should I place any more trades this week, and I don't know that I will, they will be in the direction of the trend only, and early enough that I get in for a good part of the move (ie MA cross).
I've just assessed your system, and it looks like I should have taken 150 out of that market with a 50 point stoploss. I will trade only this system over the next few weeks while I give more thought to position trading. Thanks for giving me this system, and sorry for being too much of a dunce to follow it today!
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Just to add,in the above chart that final white candle towards session close will take some breaking tomorrow if at all......big volume came in there.....the low of that bar is 13783 cash so I'd be looking to buy any retrace into that candle....
cheers
Steve
cheers
Steve
Dinos
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Lurker
The short you took yesterday, was not a sell om my set up, probably not Atilla's either.
No crossing of ema8/ema21 and for me no stochastic confirmation, unless I get the ema/ema crossover, its not a trade as nothing to suggest anything else, 1st sign on 5 min charts was cross over 7pm (13771) together with stochastic confirmation, until then, long from then beginning only (IMO)
You were above the 100 ema, which was trending upwards, and you went short!, without a shorter term trend indicator as well, imho, you may find it difficult to establish true turns in the market and be prone to entering on false breakout.
For eg, for shorter trend timeframes, mulitples from 7, 20, 34, 50, take your pick
Then shorter timesframes to try an establish direction, when they all agree, you should have a higher probability of success (imho)
The short you took yesterday, was not a sell om my set up, probably not Atilla's either.
No crossing of ema8/ema21 and for me no stochastic confirmation, unless I get the ema/ema crossover, its not a trade as nothing to suggest anything else, 1st sign on 5 min charts was cross over 7pm (13771) together with stochastic confirmation, until then, long from then beginning only (IMO)
You were above the 100 ema, which was trending upwards, and you went short!, without a shorter term trend indicator as well, imho, you may find it difficult to establish true turns in the market and be prone to entering on false breakout.
For eg, for shorter trend timeframes, mulitples from 7, 20, 34, 50, take your pick
Then shorter timesframes to try an establish direction, when they all agree, you should have a higher probability of success (imho)
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lurkerlurker
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I'm a dunce, but I won't do that again
Thanks Dinos. It wasn't. It was a very bad trade, and I am a bad trader for selling. I should throw 5m PV and tick out the window because I am trying to move to position trading. As I am no longer day trading or scalping this information isn't helpful to me anymore; I can't justify a 50 point stop and 150 point target over a few days based on 20m tick divergence for example. Come to think of it, I no longer need Tick, so I'll save myself a few quid a month in NYSE exchange fees!
I have a DEMA/MACD study up on the 4h Dow right now. I am a little concerned that DEMAs on price and MACD confirm each other, but notwithstanding this I am using this to determine longer term trend. I will not be a buyer of this market at these levels, without strength becoming evident above 14,000, however I will not short while price stays above these DEMAs. If price crosses these lines, takes out a support level, and then the 8 DEMA crosses the 21, I may consider selling. Otherwise I will stay flat. I don't need to trade every day. Better to position trade a few times a week for profit than to get whipsawed and pay high commissions day trading an index future.
I see price has broken the 8 period DEMA on the 4h chart - this should put me on notice to look for bearish confirmation later in the day.
Thanks again for your comments. I appreciate that I am making similar silly blunders which must be infuriating to the more experienced traders here.
Thanks Dinos. It wasn't. It was a very bad trade, and I am a bad trader for selling. I should throw 5m PV and tick out the window because I am trying to move to position trading. As I am no longer day trading or scalping this information isn't helpful to me anymore; I can't justify a 50 point stop and 150 point target over a few days based on 20m tick divergence for example. Come to think of it, I no longer need Tick, so I'll save myself a few quid a month in NYSE exchange fees!
I have a DEMA/MACD study up on the 4h Dow right now. I am a little concerned that DEMAs on price and MACD confirm each other, but notwithstanding this I am using this to determine longer term trend. I will not be a buyer of this market at these levels, without strength becoming evident above 14,000, however I will not short while price stays above these DEMAs. If price crosses these lines, takes out a support level, and then the 8 DEMA crosses the 21, I may consider selling. Otherwise I will stay flat. I don't need to trade every day. Better to position trade a few times a week for profit than to get whipsawed and pay high commissions day trading an index future.
I see price has broken the 8 period DEMA on the 4h chart - this should put me on notice to look for bearish confirmation later in the day.
Thanks again for your comments. I appreciate that I am making similar silly blunders which must be infuriating to the more experienced traders here.
brutusdog
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Hi Lurker,
you made a position trade of your daytrading strat??
if your going to position trade get used to and confident with a system such as attila's or dinos's. dont watch the lower timeframe charts anymore as they will likely cloud your judgement.
as for why you went against everything that is sane, possibly trying to prove something to yourself or there is a reason for being self destructive.
wishing you the best on your longer term trades and sending you a pm.
bd.
lurkerlurker
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I was in a mood with my bucketshop
Err, yes.
As I am familiar with the lower timeframes I would like to use PV on the 5m or 15m for confirmation of an entry made with the systems suggested by Atilla/Dinos. I won't use these charts for regular entries and exits any more, as I am no longer day trading.
Thanks for your good wishes. Again, I am deeply humbled by the encouragement from those here. I was pretty annoyed with my bucketshop that day, and they had screwed me out of a significant profit because they were having IT problems. Firm to remain nameless as when I finally got the head of the desk things were sorted out to my satisfaction, but I am still a little peeved (and was very peeved at the time) at the general poor level of service. (It isn't important now, but firstly I get an unauthorised large debit from my account, and they don't bother to get in touch to say why. Then I don't get very far with customer services, who give me the "bad price" line. I ask for more details to be sent in writing, including where they contend that the underlying was trading and how that differs from their quote, etc....a few hours later, no reply. I call again and ask for the dealing desk. The dealers are too busy to deal with me, so I am advised to wait a half hour for a call back. 45 minutes later, no call. I call them again, and start to press the issue quite forcefully, mentioning both the contract terms and my intention to raise the issue with their compliance officer. I get the "but the FSA are happy with our contract" and other attempts to wind up the conversation without giving me a dealer. I demand to be given the head of the desk, and the support staff reluctantly agrees, but advises he is busy. I take his name, and get a call back 20 minutes later from a decent chap who has listened to audio transcripts of my earlier calls and seems amiable enough to resolve the issue. Unfortunately I didn't get to keep all the money I had made, but they let me have a few pips in "good faith". The dealer's attitude compensated in part for the poor service earlier, and I decided not to go the regulatory route. According to the FSA, this chap used to work for Goldman, so take from that what you will.)
Perhaps not the best frame of mind to trade in that day.
Err, yes.
As I am familiar with the lower timeframes I would like to use PV on the 5m or 15m for confirmation of an entry made with the systems suggested by Atilla/Dinos. I won't use these charts for regular entries and exits any more, as I am no longer day trading.
Thanks for your good wishes. Again, I am deeply humbled by the encouragement from those here. I was pretty annoyed with my bucketshop that day, and they had screwed me out of a significant profit because they were having IT problems. Firm to remain nameless as when I finally got the head of the desk things were sorted out to my satisfaction, but I am still a little peeved (and was very peeved at the time) at the general poor level of service. (It isn't important now, but firstly I get an unauthorised large debit from my account, and they don't bother to get in touch to say why. Then I don't get very far with customer services, who give me the "bad price" line. I ask for more details to be sent in writing, including where they contend that the underlying was trading and how that differs from their quote, etc....a few hours later, no reply. I call again and ask for the dealing desk. The dealers are too busy to deal with me, so I am advised to wait a half hour for a call back. 45 minutes later, no call. I call them again, and start to press the issue quite forcefully, mentioning both the contract terms and my intention to raise the issue with their compliance officer. I get the "but the FSA are happy with our contract" and other attempts to wind up the conversation without giving me a dealer. I demand to be given the head of the desk, and the support staff reluctantly agrees, but advises he is busy. I take his name, and get a call back 20 minutes later from a decent chap who has listened to audio transcripts of my earlier calls and seems amiable enough to resolve the issue. Unfortunately I didn't get to keep all the money I had made, but they let me have a few pips in "good faith". The dealer's attitude compensated in part for the poor service earlier, and I decided not to go the regulatory route. According to the FSA, this chap used to work for Goldman, so take from that what you will.)
Perhaps not the best frame of mind to trade in that day.
