Dow 2006

dpfuller said:
Found this link on another thread:

http://www.traderdaily.com/column4/3469.html

Well worth a read - interesting times ahead!
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Very valid points made there, the Dow is propped up by a few stocks, and the recent rises were of course due to a stellar performance from IBM (not so bright future next year if the recession kicks in), Boeing (who benefited from Airbus delays on A380, all the good news is priced in, and if Airbus get their act together expect Boeing to correct) and MSFT (has gone parabolic in the last few months, if Vista is a flop expect the stock to drop like a stone), to name but three (I left aside GM, a basket case, it is technically bankrupt, it's just a mater of time until there will be no buyers left, and with only sellers it's going to be a blood bath).

I am still short both Dow and SPX, and will keep adding and scalping and adding and scalping until a top is in place.
 
Interesting snippet from Bloomers.
France is worth 500 billion in assets and has liabilities of 1.1 trillion.
Correct me if my maths is wrong but isn't that B*ST ? ( or only technically if one is even interested ). The EU gent wont sign the accounts either !
Might try a short on the CAC
 
Racer said:
Yes I have been aware of the divisor for a long time.

BTW have you read CAT results that came out recently!
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CAT dropped nearly $10 when the results were out, but the Dow still went up on the day, if I remember correctly, just shows that no matter what the news are, the dow was meant to go higher, and higher id did.

Cat sells machines for moving soil, with the US house building in retreat, they will not buy new CAT's for some time to go, in my book CAT is a classic short, but so are so many other stocks.
 
GOOG - Talking about overpriced stocks, am I the only one who thinks that a P/E of 62 and a capitalisation of $154Bn is a bit too rich? This is not realistic and it smells of dot.com mania.
 
mark twain uk said:
GOOG - Talking about overpriced stocks, am I the only one who thinks that a P/E of 62 and a capitalisation of $154Bn is a bit too rich? This is not realistic and it smells of dot.com mania.
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yep seems definitely overpriced...only caveat is - talk that GOOG is the "new" MSFT...so everybody wants in on the "future"....

but must be a stock to keep on radar for signs of a TOP ..both for GOOG and the NDX..

looks like we have to wait for next week for any major mkt move....FTSE underperforming..leading indicator?
 
mark twain uk said:
GOOG - Talking about overpriced stocks, am I the only one who thinks that a P/E of 62 and a capitalisation of $154Bn is a bit too rich? This is not realistic and it smells of dot.com mania.
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Agree very strongly. Fundamental question would be are
1. What are the tangible assets of this company?
2. What are the barriers to entry?
3. How would it stand to new technology?

For example entry into the market by Chineese + Indian search engines. 2bn + subscribers.

Chineese or Indian version of eBay or Google + highly probable in the near future. In fact there already is a version of eBay.

The internet or eCommerce as a marketing medium is limited to what you can sell online.

Finally, MSN & Yahoo. They are not out of the competition yet.

There will be niche markets and opportunities like Skype & YouTube. Relatively new startups that have been gobbled up by the big players. One way of cutting the competition to size. Given abnormal profits in any market there will be new comers.

As in the great movie The Google The eBay And The MSN, the bigger they are the harder they fall. :devilish:
 
jfn_trader said:
If the Dow is following the 60 yr cycle, then the 1472 day run up (from 1942-46 ) was completed Nov 11 from the Oct 10, 2002 low....I think there is a stronger case for the 77 yr cycle which started in late 1852 (Dec) and again 1929 (Sept)....1852 +77 = 1929 + 77 = 2006
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Divergence in the DOW price action with MACD & RSI oscillator indicators. Also, the price line is just crossing the 7 day MA confirming the down turn. Ideally I would also like to watch
1. The price cross the 14 day MA &
2. For good confimation the 7 day MA cross the 14 day MA.
I think this may happen on W48 or day 144 probably next week in the year 2006. Reading all previous inputs on this fantastic web site - I'm thinking there are just too many indicators for it to be mere coincidence.

Also, the SPX500 looks like it's plundering over new territory when all economic indicators point to negative factors.

Am I reading it all wrong? I'd be interested if anybody see it differently. :eek:
 

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"Banks told to predict effects of a 40% crash in house prices " ......does not mean the event will happen , but it should be taken as a shot across the bows for lending institutions not to over extend themselves in their efforts to get new business. I thought this was quite timely given the recent 'innovations' in lending for mortgages which was clearly aimed at getting people into the market who would otherwise be prevented from doing so by the high asset values. In that sense it's supportive of those asset values ,but of course as the FSA pointed out with their scenario test request it is not without risk to the institutions involved.
Nothing to do with the Dow mind you ;)

Keeping it topical Paulson was on record recently saying they (the Treasury) could continue to support (love that word in this context) their stock market indefinitely which we can interpret to mean until they (the Treasury) see some stability in their housing market.
The funny thing here is if you know any double entry book keeping you should be able to spot the monetary illusion without too much trouble . ....LOL and I think I read some implied criticism here recently about the Chinese and their rather unlevel playing field...I don't think it is very sensible to be looking for level playing fields when the object is to be making money.
 
Nice fall on the CAC this morning for shorters.
European indicies really taking a beating this morning.
Now then concentrate - with the Dow future down 46 points the question is whether to buy or not to buy the dip.
That is the question.
 
buying the dip in dax may be my option ...... now I've closed the short. Although even that is risky!
 
Pat494 said:
Nice fall on the CAC this morning for shorters.
European indicies really taking a beating this morning.
Now then concentrate - with the Dow future down 46 points the question is whether to buy or not to buy the dip.
That is the question.
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looks like a topping action on ym i shorted es for a quick scalp
there is timing on es for a high but no point catching tops let them materialize
on es would like a pop to 1403/1404 and then subject to how it acts i will short again
 
Lets see Pat, sorry to be the wet blanket but this would only be the first down day since the highs..... and support awaits at 12200 cash probably....... a nice little trade for those already in on it though.

We need a fracture to get me buzzin' not these little pullbacks...........but should be thankful for small mercies!
 
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