Dow 2006

[leovirgo]

Green signals for going LONG

A few red bars on Friday failed to materialise.. today, green bars were saying BUY BUY all the way.... I wont go short until my system says so.. with red bars, of course...

 

[roguetrader]

Another brick in the wall

Texas Instruments adds another brick to the wall as it warns in forward guidance.http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...917A-A915-4B26-9B1E-EA64EDBB4749}&siteId=mktw

 

[Pat494]

Note: For those new to trading, please do not base your trades on advice given here, like most other people here, I am only putting my thoughts in writing and in no way do I want to give any advice whatsoever, if I were that clever I would not be still trading, but enjoy a prosperous retirement at a villa near a lake.

 

[catracho]

I make this nine white candles in a row, quite a feast for a weekly chart, and it's getting more and more parabolic, any guesses where it will all end?

Also, look at the size of the candle for this week, and it's only monday, either a pull back is imminent, or we will see 12,400 soon.

Unsolved Mysteries (Wall Street Journal )
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116...?KEYWORDS=market+beat&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month
[question]

1:16 p.m.: Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, finds something very fishy about the Dow's record-setting run.

In his weekly Web-site commentary, Mr. Saut notes that the Dow, defying precedent, has risen steadily from its bottom in July with hardly a correction. Most suspiciously, whenever a correction has seemed imminent in recent months, he says, "mysterious buyers materialized in the futures markets," forcing a higher opening and resulting in big days for the Dow.

He cites Robert McHugh of Technicalindicatorindex.com, who points out that 1155 points of the Dow's 1200-point run since July (excluding today's rally) have been gained in just nine big days of trading: July 19, 24 and 28; August 15 and 16; September 12 and 26; and October 4 and 12. "[O]n ALL of those nine trading days, according to our notes...the aforementioned 'mysterious' futures buyers were at work," Mr. Saut writes.

In his commentary today, he notes that futures buyers again seemed to step in this morning, followed by another 100-point Dow rally. He also vows he is not a conspiracy theorist -- he believes Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone, for example, and that Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes really did have that baby. But he says the "mysterious" futures-market action has him and many floor traders "mysteriously cautious," afraid to bet against what he calls an "overbought" market.

But he still believes the end of the Dow's run could come with the end of the fiscal year on Oct. 31, when money managers have no more need to pretty up their portfolios by buying blue chips that have enjoyed solid gains since July. Or perhaps the end could come after the election, he suggests, if those "mysterious" futures-market buyers are politically motivated.

 

[Bez]

I make this nine white candles in a row.

Intresting for those who follow DeMark's Sequential counts :?:

 

[mark twain uk]

Highlights:

Unsolved Mysteries (Wall Street Journal )
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116...?KEYWORDS=market+beat&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month
[question]

... something very fishy ... defying precedent ... Most suspiciously ....mysterious buyers ... floor traders "mysteriously cautious," afraid to bet against what he calls an "overbought" market.

In all my years of trading I have not seen anything like the rise in the dow since July, every single drop has been mechanically bought defying common sense, rules, timing, just about everything I can think of. In times when the dow would normally tread water it would just rise, and rise, and then rise a bit more. My guess is that some huge hedge funds are locked into a battle, with the bull fund(s) inflincting some serious damage on the bear fund(s), aggressive buying keeps taking out any stop losses, no matter how far they are placed. There will come a time when the bull fund(s) will decide that they pushed as far as they could and then we will have what dc has predicted since last year, a drop of 1000 points in two days, and that would be just for starters.

In January 1986 the dow was 1530. Twenty years later it stands above 12,100, the last 1200 points of which came without any meaningfull pull back. It will end up at some point, and it may be sooner than people think. Nothing goes up for ever, not even the dow.

 

[Racer]

Dow is going to 100,000 according to some on TV

and no I didn't add an extra zero by mistake!

 

[Pat494]

Highlights:


defying common sense, rules, timing, just about everything I can think of. In times when the dow would normally tread water it would just rise, and rise, and then rise a bit more. .

Strange but I seem to see it all quite differently. I see the above as obvious strength. From where is another matter. The TREND is UP boys. Its not like a stone in that you throw up in the air and it falls back down. No sir. It will rise and rise. Shorts are only for retracements at present imho

 

[mark twain uk]

More musings: That a recession is coming there is little doubt in my mind, this should send the dow tumbling, but this coming recession is accompanied by a sea of greebacks, there are now three times as many dollars in circulation than ten years ago, so these dollars need to find a place, so maybe this is the explanation for the rise of the dow, but then so should the price of gold, and yet, the gold has been going down for the last months, and this is illogical. Either the gold is too low or the dow is too high, and there must be a correction at some point.

That's me done for the day, if anybody has any comments about any link between the increase of the printed dollars and the dow rise it would be interesting to hear your point.

 

[mark twain uk]

Dow is going to 100,000 according to some on TV

and no I didn't add an extra zero by mistake!

You can see the logic,in the same way it went up from 1,200 to 12,000, it could also go from 12,000 to 120,000. But that would be accompanied by the Rapture and the Three Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

 

[roguetrader]

Dow is going to 100,000 according to some on TV

and no I didn't add an extra zero by mistake!

Oh goody, then my DJX Nov 07 50,000 calls might be good after all

 

[mark twain uk]

Strange but I seem to see it all quite differently. I see the above as obvious strength. From where is another matter. The TREND is UP boys. Its not like a stone in that you throw up in the air and it falls back down. No sir. It will rise and rise. Shorts are only for retracements at present imho

Pat, of course you are right, but such a strength after a 1200 point bull run appears at least a little suspicious, over the last few weeks I wish I had bought the dips instead of selling the tops, I am in the red at the moment

 

[mark twain uk]

False breakout at 12,120, does anybody else see this as a sell signal? I do. But then again, I see sell signals everywhere I look, so I may be slightly biased.

In hindsight, a break under 12,078 would be a better sell signal, I may have jumped the gun. Again.

Edited: Out for a 10 point win, it turned again, as it always does, waiting for the next sell signal

 

[Pat494]

waiting waiting WAIting WAITING
That's the hardest to do !!
It will suddenly fall when most of us have nodded off from boredom
And is likely to be so quick as to have dropped a lot before mr average Joe can jump aboard
Patient watching is the key imho and keep awake
Bit like trench warfare

 

[Paddington]

False breakout at 12,120, does anybody else see this as a sell signal? I do. But then again, I see sell signals everywhere I look, so I may be slightly biased.

In hindsight, a break under 12,078 would be a better sell signal, I may have jumped the gun. Again.

It's been very problematic trying to short this mkt. The trend followers must have been having a great time recently!. I feel another move up tomorrow if the fed leaves rates on hold. On the other hand a surprise rise could be just the trigger!

Some day this must break but it's been testing trying to short

 

[mark twain uk]

I expect tomorrow to be a sideway, choppy day, in expectation of wednesday's fed decision....[/COLOR]

I wasn't far off, at least until now

 

[karmit]

yawn... wake me up on 2nd Nov....

 

[mark twain uk]

Every single dip continues to be bought, maybe one day we will find out who did all this buying and why.

I can almost see the buying programmes kicking in at 6:00, 7:00 and 8:00, on the hour, every hour, regularly, like clockwork, and it's been like this since July, it's now nearly November, buying programmes kicking in every day, day after day ... How many trillions have been spent to get the market as high as this? Whose money are they?

 

[karmit]

every single dip continues to be bought, maybe one day we will find out who did all this buying and why

I think your guess on fund wars might be correct... one of friend works in a well known city invst. bank and she says that they are actually recommending even the employees to short US
stocks!!

Found that quite amusing.

 

[mark twain uk]

The 240 points spike in SPX Futures on Sunday night appears to make sense, I think that someone knew the target for the SPX futures and somehow managed to press the wrong buttons. Accordingly there might be another 140 points of upward move, I placed a limit sell order just under that, I have a sneaky feeling that it might just get filled in the next few days.