mark twain uk
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Fancy having to travel on business today, of all days, missed on all the fun, has anybody made any money out of those lovely spikes or it all happened too quickly?
Anyway, for what it's worth, either the spikes were not high enough or they started from too low a level, so my limit sells did not get hit, but at 10:00 pm they were quite close, so I cancelled my limit orders and just added to my shorts on both dow, spx and ftse cash at the market levels, which were at the highest for the day. I believe that a turn is imminent and as tomorrow I will be out of action all day, I took my chances now.
After I went short I came across the following from Trader Tom:
This is written at 10pm Wednesday night. I will update my analysis tomorrow morning. However, I wanted to direct you to the analysis below, which is from the 25th.
I am going to keep some of the analysis from yesterday because it relates to the FED meeting which took place last night. I wrote yesterday the following:
Today is the FOMC meeting. The market has a tendency to go somewhat flat into the announcement later today. I am not sure I have posted this chart before. It shows the reaction in the Dow after the FED announcement. The black arrow indicates the day of the announcement.
Meeting 31st Jan: The Dow rallies 90 points the day after, and then sells off 230 points in the next 4 days
Meeting 28th March: The Dow loses 90 points on the day and sells off 250 points in the next 13 days
Meeting 10th May: The Dow is up 3 points on the day, and sells off 640 points in the next 10 days
Meeting 29th June: The Dow gains 217 points, trades sidesways for 4 days, and sells off 460 points in 8 days
Meeting 8th August: The Dow loses 250 points from the high made on the Fed day over the next 3 days
Meeting 20th September: The Dow gains 70 points on the day, and then sells off 160 points in 2 days
The statistics above suggest to me that we will see a sell-off either today or in the coming day or two, if the pattern from this year repeats itself. Given how extended we are to the upside, I think there is an opportunity for a profitable trade on the short side in the Dow.
Anyway, for what it's worth, either the spikes were not high enough or they started from too low a level, so my limit sells did not get hit, but at 10:00 pm they were quite close, so I cancelled my limit orders and just added to my shorts on both dow, spx and ftse cash at the market levels, which were at the highest for the day. I believe that a turn is imminent and as tomorrow I will be out of action all day, I took my chances now.
After I went short I came across the following from Trader Tom:
This is written at 10pm Wednesday night. I will update my analysis tomorrow morning. However, I wanted to direct you to the analysis below, which is from the 25th.
I am going to keep some of the analysis from yesterday because it relates to the FED meeting which took place last night. I wrote yesterday the following:
Today is the FOMC meeting. The market has a tendency to go somewhat flat into the announcement later today. I am not sure I have posted this chart before. It shows the reaction in the Dow after the FED announcement. The black arrow indicates the day of the announcement.
Meeting 31st Jan: The Dow rallies 90 points the day after, and then sells off 230 points in the next 4 days
Meeting 28th March: The Dow loses 90 points on the day and sells off 250 points in the next 13 days
Meeting 10th May: The Dow is up 3 points on the day, and sells off 640 points in the next 10 days
Meeting 29th June: The Dow gains 217 points, trades sidesways for 4 days, and sells off 460 points in 8 days
Meeting 8th August: The Dow loses 250 points from the high made on the Fed day over the next 3 days
Meeting 20th September: The Dow gains 70 points on the day, and then sells off 160 points in 2 days
The statistics above suggest to me that we will see a sell-off either today or in the coming day or two, if the pattern from this year repeats itself. Given how extended we are to the upside, I think there is an opportunity for a profitable trade on the short side in the Dow.
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Pat494
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Bez said:
Congrats
nothing wrong with your "doodles" imho
nervous moments though before it rose belatedly
Mark seems to be talking himself into even more shorts.
I used to have respect for Tom's views until he got it wrong so many times even he had to admit he had his graphs upside down
Thanks pat appreacate it.....
Mark may be in luck.... its hit that key 12180 level from the measured move and fibbo targets posted on the charts the other day. ( posted below to save flipping back and forth...) Handy place for a limit sell order with a 20 point stop
As for TomH, people must be mad if there willing to pay for his "maps" that as pat says are not correct.
Mark may be in luck.... its hit that key 12180 level from the measured move and fibbo targets posted on the charts the other day. ( posted below to save flipping back and forth...) Handy place for a limit sell order with a 20 point stop
As for TomH, people must be mad if there willing to pay for his "maps" that as pat says are not correct.
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Racer
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10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
Biggest Drop In Median New-home Sales Prices In 36 Years
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. New-home Sales Down 14.2% Year-over-year
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Aug. New-home Sales Revised Lower To 1.02m Vs. 1.50m
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Sept. New-home Median Prices Fall 9.7% Year-over-year
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Sept. New-home Inventories Fall 1.9% To 557,000
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Sept. New-home Sales Rise 5.3% To 1.075m Pace
Biggest Drop In Median New-home Sales Prices In 36 Years
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. New-home Sales Down 14.2% Year-over-year
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Aug. New-home Sales Revised Lower To 1.02m Vs. 1.50m
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Sept. New-home Median Prices Fall 9.7% Year-over-year
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Sept. New-home Inventories Fall 1.9% To 557,000
10:00 Am Et 10/26/06
U.s. Sept. New-home Sales Rise 5.3% To 1.075m Pace
mark twain uk
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The PPT brigade obliged, as usual, with the same linear rise that just seems to go on and on, only a stupid programme can keep it like this, so we have a buying programme in operation again, now why does that not come as a surprise.
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mark twain uk
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Back from a nice meal at an elegant restaurant (business chores) only to find the obvious: the market turned again from the low and carried up into the close, another 100+ rally on the spx, "only" 76 points on the dow, people who were able to day trade this over the last month must have made a fortune, every top could be reliably sold and evry bottom could be bought, I reckon there were at least 1000 safe points for the take, I am soooooo pissed off to have to go to work and only take a flutter which usually gets stuffed, I lost a small fortune over the last few weeks chasing tops, I am still short and will keep it on for a little while, but it was a bad strategy, I should have gone long long ago or at least wait patiently on the side, I suppose this is the difference between professionals and amateurs, I keep the professionals in business by taking the losing side of a trade more often than not.
Unless I get lucky it will eventually turn down the day after I exhaust all my money by running my shorts.
May the Lord have mercy on my soul, I am not sure if it is just the wine or the realisation that I was stupid to chase tops in the middle of the mother of all bull runs. I suppose it will teach me a lesson, there is always a silver lining.
Unless I get lucky it will eventually turn down the day after I exhaust all my money by running my shorts.
May the Lord have mercy on my soul, I am not sure if it is just the wine or the realisation that I was stupid to chase tops in the middle of the mother of all bull runs. I suppose it will teach me a lesson, there is always a silver lining.
mark twain uk
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Bloody CMC, I checked my positions earlier on before I went out and I added to my DAX short at 6294 with a stop loss at 6314, they went for it just before the close and they just hit it exactly at 6314 for one second, I must have been the only idiot with a stop loss there, the spread betting companies are such efficient operators at running stop losses.
WARNING: IF YOU HAVE A STOP LOSS WITH CMC, THEY WILL USUALLY TAKE YOU OUT ON A SPIKE AND THEN TURN AGAINST YOU. IT HAPPENED TO ME SO MANY TIMES THAT I SIMPLY DO NOT PUT HARD STOPS IN PLACE ANY MORE. CMC ARE REAL HARD B4ST4RDS WHEN IT COMES TO STOP GUNNING, IN MY EXPERIENCE THEY ARE THE BEST/WORST AT THIS GAME.
FUNNY, YOU NEVER SEE THIS CLAIM IN THEIR ADDS:
CMC ARE MARKET LEADERS AT TAKING OUT YOUR STOPS
For crying out loud, it was only a £2 short over 20 points, they still went for it. It's only £40, but it moved from my pocket to theirs, multiply this by 1000 times a day and you have a multi-million pounds business. That's why I stopped using hard stops with CMC long ago and instead just keep an eye on my positions. If it gets close to my area and even if it overshoots, 9 out of 10 times I will get a chance later on to get out at a better price on a pull back.
Looking again at this chart it really is didactic material, the dax was 1305, it spiked up to 1312 eight minutes before the close and then closed unchanged at 1305.
WARNING: IF YOU HAVE A STOP LOSS WITH CMC, THEY WILL USUALLY TAKE YOU OUT ON A SPIKE AND THEN TURN AGAINST YOU. IT HAPPENED TO ME SO MANY TIMES THAT I SIMPLY DO NOT PUT HARD STOPS IN PLACE ANY MORE. CMC ARE REAL HARD B4ST4RDS WHEN IT COMES TO STOP GUNNING, IN MY EXPERIENCE THEY ARE THE BEST/WORST AT THIS GAME.
FUNNY, YOU NEVER SEE THIS CLAIM IN THEIR ADDS:
CMC ARE MARKET LEADERS AT TAKING OUT YOUR STOPS
For crying out loud, it was only a £2 short over 20 points, they still went for it. It's only £40, but it moved from my pocket to theirs, multiply this by 1000 times a day and you have a multi-million pounds business. That's why I stopped using hard stops with CMC long ago and instead just keep an eye on my positions. If it gets close to my area and even if it overshoots, 9 out of 10 times I will get a chance later on to get out at a better price on a pull back.
Looking again at this chart it really is didactic material, the dax was 1305, it spiked up to 1312 eight minutes before the close and then closed unchanged at 1305.
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rav700
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mark twain uk said:
What I dont understand why these guys have to take the **** in such away...................
I had a similar trade with Ig sometime ago with cable just 1 pip literally 1 pip screwed me up for a loss on cable....They take whatever they get like hungry pigs.....
mark twain uk
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mark twain uk
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And finally, my last rant of the day, on the 17 October the ftse cash bottomed at 6100 and the dax cash at 6102. Less than two weeks later, and few daysa fter the confidence of the business community in Germany dropped to its lowest for several years the ftse cash stands at 6200 whilst the dax is 6305, the last time the dax raced ahead of the ftse it came back to the same level with it at the first correction, that was the logic behind my short earlier on. I am not sayin you should go short dax, but if you are considering shorting the ftse then you should do the same to the dax.
Bull Market? Don't Bet on It
Rick Ackerman
October 27, 2006
A few words concerning my oddly rosy forecast for the Dow Industrials. My prediction that the blue chip average eventually will achieve 13045 was not inspired by any particular thought, nor by events that may have occurred or which could conceivably occur, in the real world. It is in fact a coldly mechanical objective derived from the long-term charts and in its coldly mechanical way, it implicitly acknowledges the fact that stocks can do just about anything without heed to events in what we should like to call the “real” world. They can tumble into a relentless bear market just when the economy seems to be going gangbusters; they can do essentially nothing for seven years, no matter what the news; or they can soar, as they are doing now, even with a spectacular and potentially depressionary real estate bust glowering on the horizon.
But merely because my long-term charts point to an impending 900-point rally in a handful of Dow stocks does not necessarily mean we should become hand-over-fist buyers at these levels. In fact, we are only ultra-cautious buyers on pullbacks, even as we treat every Hidden Pivot rally target, no matter how minor, as a potential very long-term top -- and a shorting opportunity.
Headline highs aside, is it really a bull market? As Richard Russell once taught us, the fact that the stock market is making new all-time highs does not necessarily qualify it as a true bull. In his latest newsletter, Bob Prechter recalls Russell’s prescience on this point 33 years ago: “I can recall reading Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters in 1973, and he correctly said that the new highs in the Dow and S&P were part of a bear market. To many people this claim did not make sense, but he was correct. It was a corrective pattern under Elliott, other averages (like the NASDAQ and S&P today) were lagging, the real value of the indexes was not a new high, and the worst of the bear was yet to come.”
Just so. Prechter closes his letter with a statement that has caused me to rethink my own role as a forecaster who has predicted significantly higher stock prices: “At this point it would be dangerous to suggest the Dow will go up another 8 percent in case some people were to take it as a reason to buy,” writes Prechter. “The responsible thing to do in this psychological environment has been, and still is, to recognize every possible juncture that could signal a top…”
I completely agree. And I would add that anyone who believes that the already fatal drop in home prices is leading the economy toward a soft landing is too stupid to argue with. The stock market and the entire economic system are so very close to unraveling that we should offer up a grateful prayer for each new and uneventful day on Wall St.
Rick Ackerman
October 27, 2006
A few words concerning my oddly rosy forecast for the Dow Industrials. My prediction that the blue chip average eventually will achieve 13045 was not inspired by any particular thought, nor by events that may have occurred or which could conceivably occur, in the real world. It is in fact a coldly mechanical objective derived from the long-term charts and in its coldly mechanical way, it implicitly acknowledges the fact that stocks can do just about anything without heed to events in what we should like to call the “real” world. They can tumble into a relentless bear market just when the economy seems to be going gangbusters; they can do essentially nothing for seven years, no matter what the news; or they can soar, as they are doing now, even with a spectacular and potentially depressionary real estate bust glowering on the horizon.
But merely because my long-term charts point to an impending 900-point rally in a handful of Dow stocks does not necessarily mean we should become hand-over-fist buyers at these levels. In fact, we are only ultra-cautious buyers on pullbacks, even as we treat every Hidden Pivot rally target, no matter how minor, as a potential very long-term top -- and a shorting opportunity.
Headline highs aside, is it really a bull market? As Richard Russell once taught us, the fact that the stock market is making new all-time highs does not necessarily qualify it as a true bull. In his latest newsletter, Bob Prechter recalls Russell’s prescience on this point 33 years ago: “I can recall reading Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters in 1973, and he correctly said that the new highs in the Dow and S&P were part of a bear market. To many people this claim did not make sense, but he was correct. It was a corrective pattern under Elliott, other averages (like the NASDAQ and S&P today) were lagging, the real value of the indexes was not a new high, and the worst of the bear was yet to come.”
Just so. Prechter closes his letter with a statement that has caused me to rethink my own role as a forecaster who has predicted significantly higher stock prices: “At this point it would be dangerous to suggest the Dow will go up another 8 percent in case some people were to take it as a reason to buy,” writes Prechter. “The responsible thing to do in this psychological environment has been, and still is, to recognize every possible juncture that could signal a top…”
I completely agree. And I would add that anyone who believes that the already fatal drop in home prices is leading the economy toward a soft landing is too stupid to argue with. The stock market and the entire economic system are so very close to unraveling that we should offer up a grateful prayer for each new and uneventful day on Wall St.