Pat494
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Matt321 said:
Hi Matt,
Just to compare the "ordinary" pivot point calculation with yours- for Monday it is :-
Higher 11173
High 11081
PPoint 11007
Low 10915
Lower 10841
Personally I have found that barring overriding factors it will initially head for the pivot point near to the opening before going its own way.
Pat494
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Someone has started a thread on pivot points. One contributor seems to be implying using pivot points during trading hours. Could be an excellent idea but one would need a RT data feed to accomplish this. I am experimenting with a 20 expo moving average. Here are today's figures:-
high 11134
pivot point 11035
low 10945
high 11134
pivot point 11035
low 10945
sandpiper
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frugi said:
Frugi,
Nice charts... as always.
Matt,
"I have heard that Pit Traders use nothing but the price and pivot points as to whether they buy or sell.They completely ignore indicators because by the time they throw up a signal its all over."
Hmmm..... my guess is that you didn't hear that from a pit trader. Or at least from one who was making money. In any case, the failure rate of locals is about the same as retail so it follows that 95% of pit traders will spout the same BS as retail!!!!
When you say pit traders you are talking about:
- Institutional desks
- Small locals
- Large locals
- Retail desks
- Spreaders
- etc..
Do they all use pivot points?
Do they all ignore indicators?
Do they all operate the same way?
It's important to understand the difference between the participants.
It is also important to understand the process of price discovery and pivot points have very little to do with it.
BTW. Not trying to be antogonistic
Regards.
DepthTangent
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Looks like "phase 2" is well on its way.
CBSMarketwatch reports: A rare technical formation occurred in the stock market in June that, far more often than not in the past, has heralded higher stock prices over the subsequent six months.
The particular formation is referred to as a "Nine To One Up Day." It refers to the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a given day, expressed as a percentage of the total volume of all stocks that rose or fell on that day. On a day when rising stocks' volume is the same as declining stocks' volume, for example, this ratio would be exactly 50%.
A "Nine To One Up Day" occurs when this ratio is 90% or higher. When such a huge imbalance of up volume over down volume is a significant sign of positive momentum.
Every bull market in history, and many good intermediate advances, have been launched with a buying stamped that included one or more 9-to-1 up days.
The relevance of all this to today's market is that there two 9-to-1 up days in June, one on June 15 and the second one June 29. This second 9-to-1 up day adds greatly to the bullish significance of the first. That's because a single 9-to-1 up day, by itself, has not always been a bullish event. Perhaps its biggest false signal came on March 16, 2000, at more or less the exact top of the market before the Internet bubble burst.
A single 9-to-1 up day can issue false signals and that, therefore, it would be better to focus on occasions in which two such days occur relatively close to each other and when also there is no day between these two days of big up volume in which in which there is a 9-to-1 down day (a day in which down volume is 90% of the combined volume of rising and falling issues).
The "double 9-to-1 signals" are relatively rare, occurring once every two to three years, on average, since 1960, and particularly bullish. Over the six months and 12 months following each double 9-to-1 day between 1960 and 1985, the stock market was higher, sometimes significantly so.
Ned Davis Research has calculated the returns for this indicator over a longer period, from 1950-2004. On average over the quarter following a double 9-to-1 up day, the S&P 500 is 7% higher, and over the six months following such days, the S&P 500 rises 12.6% on average.
The particular formation is referred to as a "Nine To One Up Day." It refers to the volume of all NYSE-listed stocks that go up on a given day, expressed as a percentage of the total volume of all stocks that rose or fell on that day. On a day when rising stocks' volume is the same as declining stocks' volume, for example, this ratio would be exactly 50%.
A "Nine To One Up Day" occurs when this ratio is 90% or higher. When such a huge imbalance of up volume over down volume is a significant sign of positive momentum.
Every bull market in history, and many good intermediate advances, have been launched with a buying stamped that included one or more 9-to-1 up days.
The relevance of all this to today's market is that there two 9-to-1 up days in June, one on June 15 and the second one June 29. This second 9-to-1 up day adds greatly to the bullish significance of the first. That's because a single 9-to-1 up day, by itself, has not always been a bullish event. Perhaps its biggest false signal came on March 16, 2000, at more or less the exact top of the market before the Internet bubble burst.
A single 9-to-1 up day can issue false signals and that, therefore, it would be better to focus on occasions in which two such days occur relatively close to each other and when also there is no day between these two days of big up volume in which in which there is a 9-to-1 down day (a day in which down volume is 90% of the combined volume of rising and falling issues).
The "double 9-to-1 signals" are relatively rare, occurring once every two to three years, on average, since 1960, and particularly bullish. Over the six months and 12 months following each double 9-to-1 day between 1960 and 1985, the stock market was higher, sometimes significantly so.
Ned Davis Research has calculated the returns for this indicator over a longer period, from 1950-2004. On average over the quarter following a double 9-to-1 up day, the S&P 500 is 7% higher, and over the six months following such days, the S&P 500 rises 12.6% on average.
macbonzo
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Yes I do. Obviously depends on your timescale, but I would expect this to be broken in the next few weeks, at most. Leaving aside technical reasons, NYMEX is hitting more highs and I think $80 is a certainty very soon. If earnings are disappointing we could see some considerable downward action. Today, MMM is off 7.5%, after warning, and is distorting the Dow to quite an extent. That said, yesterday MO distorted the Dow in the opposite way.
Another problem, I see with this market is that no one is buying semiconductor stocks.
As we move into earnings season we will see some of the focus move from interest rate rises to how companies are performing. I suspect that the outlooks for Q3 maybe a little down.
Another problem, I see with this market is that no one is buying semiconductor stocks.
As we move into earnings season we will see some of the focus move from interest rate rises to how companies are performing. I suspect that the outlooks for Q3 maybe a little down.