Oil Prices, Above $72 a Barrel, Approach Record Intraday High
SINGAPORE (AP) 20/4/06 -- Oil prices approached record intraday highs Thursday after weekly data showed a hefty decline in U.S. gasoline inventories, raising worries that refiners don't have an adequate inventory cushion ahead of the peak summer driving season. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 8 cents to $72.25 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's just below the record intraday high of $72.40 a barrel reached Wednesday, when the contract settled at a record $72.17, an increase of 82 cents. "The market is sizzling!" said energy analyst Victor Shum of Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "The gasoline stockdraw was large and it has raised concerns over gasoline supply in the U.S., which is really what's behind the price surge." In its weekly report, the U.S. Energy Department said the nation's supply of gasoline shrank by a larger-than-expected 5.4 million barrels last week to 202.5 million barrels. The decline, the seventh in as many weeks, pushed gasoline stocks to 4.6 percent below year ago levels, their lowest level since November. Gasoline inventories typically decrease this time of year as refiners shut down their plants to perform maintenance ahead of the summer driving season. There is additional worry, however, about summer gasoline supplies because of the prospect of tight supplies of ethanol, which is needed in increasing amounts as refiners phase out their use of methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, which has been found to contaminate drinking water.
The Energy Department report also showed that crude oil stocks fell by 800,000 barrels last week to 345.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 2.8 million barrels. Shum said the surprise decline in crude stocks could in fact be good news. "The crude stockdraw was unexpected, but what it suggests is that U.S. refineries are starting to come back on after maintenance, and that they're starting to build up product supply," he said. However, in a sign that consumers may be responding to higher prices, average daily gasoline demand since the start of the year is up 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during the same period in 2005.
Traders also are anxious that U.S.-led efforts to stop Iran, OPEC's second-largest member, from pursuing a suspected nuclear weapons program could lead to a disruption in Persian Gulf supplies. Diplomats said Wednesday that the United States may turn to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency to exert more pressure on Iran out of frustration with Russian and Chinese opposition to firm Security Council action.
Gasoline futures lost 0.19 cent to $2.2375 a gallon, while heating oil prices rose 0.27 cent to $2.0650 a gallon. Natural gas prices fell 5 cents to $8.142 per 1,000 cubic feet.
SINGAPORE (AP) 20/4/06 -- Oil prices approached record intraday highs Thursday after weekly data showed a hefty decline in U.S. gasoline inventories, raising worries that refiners don't have an adequate inventory cushion ahead of the peak summer driving season. Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 8 cents to $72.25 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's just below the record intraday high of $72.40 a barrel reached Wednesday, when the contract settled at a record $72.17, an increase of 82 cents. "The market is sizzling!" said energy analyst Victor Shum of Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "The gasoline stockdraw was large and it has raised concerns over gasoline supply in the U.S., which is really what's behind the price surge." In its weekly report, the U.S. Energy Department said the nation's supply of gasoline shrank by a larger-than-expected 5.4 million barrels last week to 202.5 million barrels. The decline, the seventh in as many weeks, pushed gasoline stocks to 4.6 percent below year ago levels, their lowest level since November. Gasoline inventories typically decrease this time of year as refiners shut down their plants to perform maintenance ahead of the summer driving season. There is additional worry, however, about summer gasoline supplies because of the prospect of tight supplies of ethanol, which is needed in increasing amounts as refiners phase out their use of methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, which has been found to contaminate drinking water.
The Energy Department report also showed that crude oil stocks fell by 800,000 barrels last week to 345.2 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 2.8 million barrels. Shum said the surprise decline in crude stocks could in fact be good news. "The crude stockdraw was unexpected, but what it suggests is that U.S. refineries are starting to come back on after maintenance, and that they're starting to build up product supply," he said. However, in a sign that consumers may be responding to higher prices, average daily gasoline demand since the start of the year is up 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during the same period in 2005.
Traders also are anxious that U.S.-led efforts to stop Iran, OPEC's second-largest member, from pursuing a suspected nuclear weapons program could lead to a disruption in Persian Gulf supplies. Diplomats said Wednesday that the United States may turn to the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency to exert more pressure on Iran out of frustration with Russian and Chinese opposition to firm Security Council action.
Gasoline futures lost 0.19 cent to $2.2375 a gallon, while heating oil prices rose 0.27 cent to $2.0650 a gallon. Natural gas prices fell 5 cents to $8.142 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Another point of view
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp
April options expire Friday
http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp
April options expire Friday
A guide to reading the Live Book --- helps timing on entry and exit
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1070+18718,00.html
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,1139,00.html
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1070+18718,00.html
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,1139,00.html
hornblower
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Pat494
hard luck , on your short
its now 3pm and the dows shot up
bet your pleased you closed it
just trade what you see , not what you think you see
good luck
hard luck , on your short
its now 3pm and the dows shot up
bet your pleased you closed it
just trade what you see , not what you think you see
good luck
LOL - GM only made a 323m loss in the first quarter (following a $10b loss for the whole of 2005) and so the champagne is out and the fireworks have started with the stock up 9.3% in the first hour of trading ! Never mind that the pump gasoline price is heading for $4 a gallon and GM gas guzzlers will become even more expensive to run !
Meanwhile oil stays above $72, the Dow is up 91pts already and has now made nearly 300pts in the last 2 days !
As old Victor Meldrew would say "unbelievable !"
Meanwhile oil stays above $72, the Dow is up 91pts already and has now made nearly 300pts in the last 2 days !
As old Victor Meldrew would say "unbelievable !"
DepthTangent
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I guess it all comes down to synchronicty, and finding that quality is based in creating a long-term assessment of where you think the market participants intend to go. WIth so much money flying around these days, the added support of the invisible hand, the romance ! of bulls tearing toward the all time high it surely must occur. I had second thoughts about the all time high once last week, but that doubt was quickly removed after the price action the other day. One word of caution though, I also think the market will tank at some point. So in order to play the game long until that day arrives, you need a vision of where things are moving to, and I feel the all time high is a cert and sometime after that, maybe very soon after that the market heads south very fast.
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macbonzo
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This is the problem with the Dow. With only 30 companies included, it only takes one to be up or down 5% to distort the picture. I've lost count the number of times that GM has distorted the market in the last 12 months. In truth, I really don't think that it should be included as a Dow component. It is an indebted basketcase
macbonzo
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Highly volatile market today. Maybe it's the option expiry, but whatever it is, I would be wary of this market. We have the problem of falling oil prices which can be a positive for the market, but initially knock oil stocks. Semis were negative to kick off with, then went positive, and fell back again. There is some pretty big profit taking in Gold too.
Personally, I think it's time to walk the dog. I think there are too many inconsistencies pulling the market all over the place. Knowing when not to trade is very important.
Personally, I think it's time to walk the dog. I think there are too many inconsistencies pulling the market all over the place. Knowing when not to trade is very important.
DepthTangent
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Well there is likely to be a period of consolidation with the occasional shakeout, which will mean range trading. So therefore one must deploy a range trading strategy whilst we are exposed to such variables. Keep it simple....
Still the fact is, well I think its a fact anyhow, is that buying the dips makes money as today proved again after the 100 pt rise and then 80 pt fall, if you bought around the 70 or 80 pt fall you would be in the money again as the market corrects back to 11350. I could argue that such a move of 100 pts forward is unsustainable therefore you should be ready to short the top about that point. Even if the Dow went a few more pips long, you would be on the right side of the harmonics. Then after it tanked the 80 pts, you know your still in a bull market so expect consolidation to be likely. It is at this point a shakeout is all you have to fear, and again, after a 80 pt move maybe the shakeout had already occured. Am I a contrarian ? such a title makes me feel important.
Still the fact is, well I think its a fact anyhow, is that buying the dips makes money as today proved again after the 100 pt rise and then 80 pt fall, if you bought around the 70 or 80 pt fall you would be in the money again as the market corrects back to 11350. I could argue that such a move of 100 pts forward is unsustainable therefore you should be ready to short the top about that point. Even if the Dow went a few more pips long, you would be on the right side of the harmonics. Then after it tanked the 80 pts, you know your still in a bull market so expect consolidation to be likely. It is at this point a shakeout is all you have to fear, and again, after a 80 pt move maybe the shakeout had already occured. Am I a contrarian ? such a title makes me feel important.
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LOL - OIL down nearly $1 over the last couple of hours and GOLD off $16 or 2.5% too & the Dow comes 40pts off its high !macbonzo said:
You're dead right about the inconsistencies macbonzo and thats why I've stayed out of this market over the last few days !
Racer
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(Note the last sentence!)
MarketWatch) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded at a slightly faster pace in April, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to 13.2 in April from 12.3 in March. Readings over zero indicate expansion. The increase was below expectations. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 14.6, according to a MarketWatch survey. The new orders index dropped to 12.2 from 20.8, while the shipments index fell to 19.0 from 24.3. Inflationary pressures increased. The prices paid index rose to 29.0 from 17.2, while the prices received index held steady at 15.4
MarketWatch) - Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded at a slightly faster pace in April, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to 13.2 in April from 12.3 in March. Readings over zero indicate expansion. The increase was below expectations. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 14.6, according to a MarketWatch survey. The new orders index dropped to 12.2 from 20.8, while the shipments index fell to 19.0 from 24.3. Inflationary pressures increased. The prices paid index rose to 29.0 from 17.2, while the prices received index held steady at 15.4
solentsurfer
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At least the dog will apreciate the volatilitymacbonzo said:
Racer
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U.S. leading indicators fall 0.1% in March
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...44A-4F35-A1BB-49E7545BF940}&siteid=mktw&dist=
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...44A-4F35-A1BB-49E7545BF940}&siteid=mktw&dist=
Jerry Olson
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Pat494 said:
LOL
you betcha Pat............................... :cheesy:
The DJIA broke out today and is heading toward my target of 11,650 soon...
the SOX also broke out as well i think we could see 560-600 very soon...
hope your doing well
DepthTangent
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Nice call Jerry, my target is 11600, after that I will be re-assessing the price action and overall world situation when we get there.
Racer
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kriesau said:
ROFL ah but did you see this bit in that report.....
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said he wouldn't be surprised if the index fell again next month. That would be the first three month decline in the index since March 2001, the start of the last recession.