Dow 2006

DepthTangent said:
Gold 620$ Copper flying, Silver flying Crude 71.50$ Dow 11240 ! What ever is going on ? Me thinks the paper money is being lined up for a tanking at some point. When the middle class become too wealthy, there is always a decent crash nearby.

I agree. The link below leads to an interesting article about how things seem to be lining up for a perfect storm. Must go find my parachute...

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/opinion/14352021.htm
 
I have gone short. scaled between 180-240. I have not really thought about stops at this point as I do not like what is happening in resources and the housing starts were particularly weak. I do not see anything happening this evening but I do think we are getting more volatility coming our way. Trends for me would be crude going to at least 75, dollar taking a short dive towards 114 d/y and 125 on e/d. As for Silver/Gold ...who knows? I think the adrenaline like surge into stocks because the Fed is close to halting will prove to be shortlived. It feels like one last hurrah and then the old worries will come out in force.
 
macbonzo said:
That was a quite a spike up on the FOMC minutes. I'm quite glad actually, because, at least now the market will assume that there is only one one .25 point rise left. So we can now focus on oil and earnings.

You must be kidding !
The US will announce sanctions against Iran who will then close the straits of Hormuz.
Oil will hit $100 and the Dow will hit 12000 :cheesy:
 
kriesau said:
macbonzo said:
That was a quite a spike up on the FOMC minutes. I'm quite glad actually, because, at least now the market will assume that there is only one one .25 point rise left. So we can now focus on oil and earnings.

You must be kidding !
The US will announce sanctions against Iran who will then close the straits of Hormuz.
Oil will hit $100 and the Dow will hit 12000 :cheesy:


Only after it has tumbled to 7000 first Sir !
 
Marketwatch has this image!

bull_67x67.gif

Hopes of an end to the rise in short-term interest rates helped the market shrug off a spike in crude-oil prices to a record high above $71 a barrel.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/default.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=&refresh=on


Hope shrugs off reality :rolleyes:
 
Trade what you see not what you think the market should do because of oil etc etc

BTW oil rise can help market go up... e.g. XOM on Dow... BP on FTSE, Total on CAC
 
don't numpties go short when all the doom & gloom news comes out in the evening? great food for a rally the next morning.
 
some good earnings out tonight...

and tomorrow...
briefing.com ...
In the wake of a smaller than expected rise in core PPI that helped stocks rally today, it appears expectations for a another tame inflation read in tomorrow's March CPI report (8:30 ET) are widely anticipated. Also garnering some interest Wednesday will be the EIA's weekly report on oil inventories (10:30 ET), especially with crude futures trading at historic highs.

On the earnings front, Dow components Coca-Cola (KO), Honeywell (HON), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Pfizer (PFE) and United Technologies (UTX) will be the headliners tomorrow morning. Other notable names out with earnings before the bell include Abbott Labs (ABT), General Dynamics (GD) and Johnson Controls (JCI). After the market closes, notable names reporting quarterly results include Intel (INTC), Apple Computer (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), Kraft Foods (KFT), and Qualcomm (QCOM).
 
Morning All.

Its so romantic... make the all time high, then tank it big time. When it does tank the PPT will disappear and we will find the experts citing the price of oil as the reason why the tumble is occurring even though the interest rate cycle has arrived at a standstill. Its easy to be an expert after the event, you can just pick any fear driven fundamental you wish and state that as the reason for the market action. Even more interesting is that many people who aint got a clue whats going on are hanging on their every word !
 
An analyst last night made both the interesting and obvious observation that on a day when oil closed above $71 a barrel, the dollar was falling and gold and silver were continuing their rapid march north, could anyone seriously consider that it was really a great day to buy stocks in sufficient volume to produce nearly a 2% rise in the major markets ? Their conclusion was that this was clearly a PPT induced short covering rally which is now easier to engineer from the sidelines since the Fed stopped publishing M3 data.
 
DepthTangent said:
Morning All.

Its so romantic... make the all time high, then tank it big time. When it does tank the PPT will disappear and we will find the experts citing the price of oil as the reason why the tumble is occurring even though the interest rate cycle has arrived at a standstill. Its easy to be an expert after the event, you can just pick any fear driven fundamental you wish and state that as the reason for the market action. Even more interesting is that many people who aint got a clue whats going on are hanging on their every word !
Exactly, although I wouldn't necessarily assume the PPT have left the scene just yet..............the market will move down again when other realities assert themselves but the timing of that is always the 64 billion dollar question ! :(
 
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Are they begining to figure out yet that higher oil prices are inflationary !

Consumer Prices Climb 0.4 Percent in March on Higher-Priced Gas, Clothes and Hotels
Wednesday April 19

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer prices shot up by a bigger-than-expected amount in March, reflecting higher costs for gasoline, clothing and hotel rooms. The Labor Department reported that its closely watched Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 percent, far higher than the modest 0.1 percent gain in February. The inflation surge was led by higher gasoline prices, which jumped by 3.6%. .

With oil prices climbing to record levels above $70 per barrel this week, analysts said motorists should be braced for more pain at the pump in coming months. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, posted a 0.3 percent rise in March. It was the biggest gain in core inflation in a year and could be a worrisome signal that higher energy prices are starting to spill over into more widespread inflation pressures. Through the first three months of this year, overall inflation has been rising at a 4.3 percent annual rate, far above the 3.4 percent price increase for all of 2005. The price acceleration reflected rising energy prices, which are up 21.8 percent at an annual rate through March, compared to a 17.1 percent rise for all of 2005.

Economists are worried that the relentless rise in energy prices could start to spread, resulting in inflationary pressures the broad spectrum of the economy. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, was up at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the first three months of this year, slightly higher than the 2.2 percent increase for all of 2005. However, the 0.3 percent rise in core inflation in March was the biggest one-month gain since a similar 0.3 percent increase in March 2005.

The stock market soared on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve indicated in minutes of its March 28 meeting that its long string of interest rate increases to keep inflation under control could be drawing to a close. But Fed officials have said that future moves will be heavily dependent on economic data, and economists are worried that inflation might be surging. The 0.4 percent overall price increase for March was the largest since a 0.7 percent gain in January. It reflected a 1.3 percent jump in energy prices following a 1.2 percent energy price decline in February.

The energy increase was led by a 3.6 percent increase in gasoline prices. Electricity costs were up 0.5 percent but natural gas prices, which had soared on worries about adequate supplies during the winter, dropped by 4.3 percent in March and home heating oil costs were down 0.3 percent. Both declines were helped by the milder winter. Food costs edged up a tiny 0.1 percent in March, reflecting big declines in the price of fresh fruits and vegetables.

Excluding food and energy, the 0.3 percent rise in core inflation reflected a big 1 percent rise in clothing costs, the biggest one-month jump in seven years. Lodging costs were also up, with rental prices rising by 0.4 percent and hotel rates increasing by 0.8 percent. The price of new cars edged down by 0.1 percent last month but airline ticket prices jumped by 1.1 percent as the industry continued trying to recoup higher fuel costs by rising ticket prices.
 
With the CPI up 0.4%, real or inflation-adjusted weekly earnings fell 0.3% in March, the Labor Department said in a separate report. In the past year, average weekly earnings have risen 3.7%
 
Did hear a trader on Bloomberg say that the strong push higher was due to investors buying US stocks
from abroad because the drop in the dollar.
 
Matt321 said:
Did hear a trader on Bloomberg say that the strong push higher was due to investors buying US stocks
from abroad because the drop in the dollar.
Another $1 on oil so far today, somethings got to give :eek:
 
solentsurfer said:
Another $1 on oil so far today, somethings got to give :eek:


I Think 'not yet' mate. We would not have had such a rally yesterday if Oil breaking new highs was crucial to the market at this point. Last year it was and there was massive short term correlation. Spike in crude, futures reverse etc. I thought 68-69 the market would be fine but any new high would be a tipping point. It has not happened though. We must give the benefit of doubt and assume that only a substantial increase will derail us in the short term. The rate story is top spot at the mo. But you know what they say.. todays news, tomorrows fish and chip paper. The oil story will turn this market but only when those with more influence than us say so! Am short for myself so would love to see a drop- just worried I am a little early- I normally am!
 
(MarketWatch) -- May crude rose 82 cents to close at $72.17 per barrel, a record closing level for a front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices tapped a record intraday high of $72.40. Strength in oil followed the first decline in U.S. crude supplies in a month, as well as seven-straight weeks of falling gasoline inventories. May unleaded gasoline rose 1.55 cents to close at $2.2394 a gallon after reaching a contract high of $2.25. Prices for a front-month contract haven't traded this high since Aug. 2005, according to National Futures Advisory Service
 
lemput said:
I Think 'not yet' mate. We would not have had such a rally yesterday if Oil breaking new highs was crucial to the market at this point. Last year it was and there was massive short term correlation. Spike in crude, futures reverse etc. I thought 68-69 the market would be fine but any new high would be a tipping point. It has not happened though. We must give the benefit of doubt and assume that only a substantial increase will derail us in the short term. The rate story is top spot at the mo. But you know what they say.. todays news, tomorrows fish and chip paper. The oil story will turn this market but only when those with more influence than us say so! Am short for myself so would love to see a drop- just worried I am a little early- I normally am!
Wishful thinking on my part coz I too am short :cheesy:
 
solentsurfer said:
Wishful thinking on my part coz I too am short :cheesy:

I had a profit on my short on Monday. Visitors came to stay - I didn't take the profit !!! Grrrrrrr
Not blaming them though but I am in the same boat !! ( got distracted ).
It is difficult to decide whether to cut one's losses or wait on a bit. Doesn't look too good to me.
 
I've thought for some considerable time the Dow is going to make the all time high, thats over 400 points away, so in my humble opinion a short at this point is still to early unless your prepared to hold it a long time. Buying the dips (some buy yesterday) is still the way to go, and infact once you begin to understand the price action you can even short the tops.
 
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