Dow 2006

[counter_violent]

Guys I know just a newbee and stuff but wouldn't you say that majority of the US Indexes have Just made a bearish reversal pattern, might be best just ti hang on those few points longer?


http://stockcharts.com/candleglance/?$RUT,$SPX,$INDU,$NDX,$NYA,$MID,$DJA,$OEX|B

To win at this game, multiple edges are required, each edge in tune with another, once u get lined up with your edges, better probabilities will present....only then will you give yourself a better than 50/50 shot at it....just trying to help here

C V

 

[kriesau]

AIG down 1.8% after hours tonight.

 

[Racer]

AIG down 1.8% after hours tonight.

Hmm only that much after this!
And because it is a dow component not a small cap.. it will drop a little then rebound and they will forget all about such a minor detail

AIG earnings drop 72 pct in 4th-quarter
Thursday March 16, 6:47 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG - News) disappointed investors on Thursday with fourth quarter earnings that fell 72 percent, hurt by a legal settlement charge and hurricane losses.

 

[mombasa]

Mom, let it go ....you can un-marry this position if you take a cold hard look at it

C V

Closed my short for a massive 1 point profit

Sitting back for the time being until things become more clearer.

 

[Pat494]

Chaps,

I know, I know - but I got carried away and overconfident - my stops were too wide.

Well, got stopped out on the rest of my shorts - right at what I still think is the top. Account almost wiped out but I'm sticking some more dosh in for the drop next week - I hope.

Oh, btw, just gone for another small short at 11,263. In profit

Oh no I hope you aren't going to make classic mistake number 3 ?
Throwing even more money at it, the house maybe ?
May I suggest a bit of CALM reflection and paper trading until confidence is restored by POSITIVE results ?????
( yeah I know, I know - silly old fusspot etc. etc. )

 

[Racer]

According to Goldman Sachs, an estimated 68% of MEW go into consumer spending. In addition, according to a recent Wall Street Journal article, Moody’s Economy.com estimates that the real estate industry created about 1.1 million new jobs of the 2 million net jobs crated in the U.S. in the five years ended October 2005.

 

[mombasa]

Oh no I hope you aren't going to make classic mistake number 3 ?
Throwing even more money at it, the house maybe ?
May I suggest a bit of CALM reflection and paper trading until confidence is restored by POSITIVE results ?????
( yeah I know, I know - silly old fusspot etc. etc. )

nah, i'm not that silly. Only lost 2.5K from original 3K. Trouble is i was upto 7K before it all went wrong.

 

[mark twain uk]

mombasa,

and to make matters worse, once you close out your shorts because of margin calls you should expect the markets to drop 300-400 points without any pull back, which makes you doubly mad, because you may think that you were right in the first place, but if you overtraded you were too exposed and you were not right. Been there, done that.

You could be right in principle, but timing is important, think about crossing the railway line, you could do it just before or just after the train has passed

 

[kriesau]

GM down 3.7% before the bell (additional $2bn loss revision).
Also down AIG 1%, HP 0.6% & HD 0.5%

 

[mombasa]

MT - thx. It's sods law isn't it?

Short at 11,272 btw

stop at 11,305 and moving it to break even as and when, ie follow my trading plan this time.

 

[leovirgo]

Is there any possibility that the FOMC will not raise the rate and the market will shoot up to the moon? Here, I am thinking the unthinkable. :!:

 

[mark twain uk]

everything is possible, but if it rises up to the moon, it will only stay there for a moment and then it will crash into the bottomless pit of hell

edited: I think I need to chill, the above was a bit tense

 

[macbonzo]

Is it possible that all the sellers are celebrating St Patrick's day?

Seriously though, the momentum behind this move has been quite something. We will see where we pull back to, but, I doubt if the pullback will be much more that 100 - 150 points before the buyers step in again.

We must remember that the Dow finished down last year, so even now it is only up about 5% over two years.

There is a huge amount of money on the sidelines still.

 

[Racer]

GM down 3.7% before the bell (additional $2bn loss revision).
Also down AIG 1%, HP 0.6% & HD 0.5%

and AIG still only down 2.22% despite earnings drop 72 pct in 4th-quarter

 

[kriesau]

and AIG still only down 2.22% despite earnings drop 72 pct in 4th-quarter

Well GM are only down 3% to $21.50 although their restated $10.6bn loss last year was the equivalent of $18.7 per share. This is a company with revenues of $192bn and debts of $285bn - a microcosm of the US economy as a whole. How long can this kind of situation continue - there must be a day of reckoning at some point in the not too distant future !

 

[leovirgo]

Well GM are only down 3% to $21.50 although their restated $10.6bn loss last year was the equivalent of $18.7 per share. This is a company with revenues of $192bn and debts of $285bn - a microcosm of the US economy as a whole. How long can this kind of situation continue - there must be a day of reckoning at some point in the not too distant future !

GM can't print its own money but the Fed can!

 

[Racer]

When it files, GM said it will be restating its results for 2000 through 2004 after it mistakenly recorded certain payments and credits from suppliers.
The effect will be an increase to net income of $10 million in 2004; an increase of $64 million in 2003; a reduction of $81 million in 2002; an increase of $78 million in 2001; and a reduction of $20 million in 2000.
GM will also lower its previously reported 2005 first-quarter net income by $149 million. The reduction is mainly due to accounting errors related to vehicles being leased to rental car companies.

 

[bansir]

Well GM are only down 3% to $21.50 although their restated $10.6bn loss last year was the equivalent of $18.7 per share. This is a company with revenues of $192bn and debts of $285bn - a microcosm of the US economy as a whole. How long can this kind of situation continue - there must be a day of reckoning at some point in the not too distant future !

Brilliant isn't it?
When you're on the wrong side, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Anything can happen.
Cheers,
Neil

 

[kriesau]

Synopsis of some comments in todays Telegraph

The discovery of huge hidden losses at General Motors's finance arm have raised fresh fears of bankruptcy at the world's biggest carmaker, sending tremors through the credit derivatives markets. The struggling group asked for a filing delay after admitting to an extra $2bn (£1.1bn) in accounting errors at its finance arm GMAC, raising total losses last year to $10.6bn. The news triggered a sharp spike in the cost of default insurance on GMAC's bonds, rising 75 basis points overnight. Car-parts supplier Dana Corp defaulted last week on $2.5bn of debt, following Delphi and Tower Automotive last year. Concern that General Motors may now be sliding towards the brink - linked to an estimated $200bn in credit derivatives - has renewed fears that the over-heated credit swap market could seize up in a crisis.

Timothy Geithner, President of the NY Federal Reserve, warned that the $300,000bn derivatives market had raced ahead of the infrastructure needed to support it and he is demanding that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) clean up it act prior to any credit crunch. He said the most conspicuous problems were in the $12,400bn market for credit derivatives, which has doubled in size every year for the last decade. He said the risk was very heavily concentrated, with America's ten biggest banks holding $600bn in potential credit exposure (on $95,000bn of notional trades), equal to 175pc of their financial reserves.

Warren Buffett has been warning since 2003 that derivatives are a ticking "time bomb", although his new metaphor is New Orleans' burst levee. This month he was explained that it has cost Berkshire Hathaway $404m to extract itself from derivatives inherited through General Re, the reinsurance group. He said: "We are a canary in this business coal mine. Our experience should be particularly sobering because we were a better-than-average candidate to exit gracefully.General Re has had the good fortune to unwind its supposedly liquid positions in a benign market. It could be a different story for others in the future."


Wonder how Kurt Kekorian now views his $868m investment at $31 per share in GM last May. GM shares closed at $21.13 yesterday which means that Kekorians investment has declined by 32% and the value of his investment has been diluted by $276m in less than 10 months. Thats the equivalent of losing nearly $28m per month, every month, for the past 10 months !

And to think that you were really pissed about getting stopped out on your recent Dow short when the market broke through 11200 ! :cheesy:

 

[Racer]

One of the problems that contributed to the 1929 'adjustment' was the availability of easy credit