Racer
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(AFX) - Large movements in the yuan against the dollar are 'unfavorable' for the economy, a senior Chinese central bank official said Saturday, arguing that the flexibility of the exchange rate is being introduced at a gradual pace to give industry time to adjust to living with greater volatility.
People's Bank of China (PBOC) vice-governor Wu Xiaoling was speaking on the eve of a fact-finding mission to China by US Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, who have co-authored a bill threatening a blanket 27.5 pct tariff on Chinese imports in the absence of significant currency reform.
People's Bank of China (PBOC) vice-governor Wu Xiaoling was speaking on the eve of a fact-finding mission to China by US Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, who have co-authored a bill threatening a blanket 27.5 pct tariff on Chinese imports in the absence of significant currency reform.
Sunday Newspaper Comment
Interest rate expectations have shifted in recent sessions, as US consumer inflation came in weaker than expected and Bank of Japan officials insisted that, in spite abandoning its ultra-easy monetary policy, rates will not rise soon. But investors are unlikely to be convinced that the global outlook for higher rates is over, given that economic growth has had such a strong start this year. "We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside," says John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia.
Many economists believe the greatest risk for the US economy is the cooling housing market. Sales of new and existing homes have slowed in recent weeks and, as financing costs have risen, mortgage applications have declined. The main focus in the US this week is therefore likely to be Thursday's existing home sales numbers for February and Friday's data on new home sales. "Unless home sales begin to pick up soon, housing starts look likely to decline over the next several months," say economists at Barclays Capital. "Overall, the datas consistent with our view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this month and then pause in May."
Barclays forecasts a fall in annualised existing home sales in February to 6.4m, from 6.56m in January. Credit Suisse expects a fall to 6.5m. In new home sales, Barclays sees February's annualised sales rate as unchanged from January's 1.233m, while Credit Suisse forecasts an increase to 1.25m.
February's durable goods data, like those of January, are expected to have been hit by weakness in civil aircraft orders. But unlike January's unexpected 9.9 per cent decline, economists predict a pick-up in defence and technology spending to limit February's fall. A drop in wholesale petrol prices is expected to depress the headline producer price index for February on Tuesday but the core number could be boosted by an increase in vehicle prices. Consensus estimates are for a 0.3 per cent fall in the headline number and a 0.1 per cent increase in the core rate.
Interest rate expectations have shifted in recent sessions, as US consumer inflation came in weaker than expected and Bank of Japan officials insisted that, in spite abandoning its ultra-easy monetary policy, rates will not rise soon. But investors are unlikely to be convinced that the global outlook for higher rates is over, given that economic growth has had such a strong start this year. "We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside," says John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia.
Many economists believe the greatest risk for the US economy is the cooling housing market. Sales of new and existing homes have slowed in recent weeks and, as financing costs have risen, mortgage applications have declined. The main focus in the US this week is therefore likely to be Thursday's existing home sales numbers for February and Friday's data on new home sales. "Unless home sales begin to pick up soon, housing starts look likely to decline over the next several months," say economists at Barclays Capital. "Overall, the datas consistent with our view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this month and then pause in May."
Barclays forecasts a fall in annualised existing home sales in February to 6.4m, from 6.56m in January. Credit Suisse expects a fall to 6.5m. In new home sales, Barclays sees February's annualised sales rate as unchanged from January's 1.233m, while Credit Suisse forecasts an increase to 1.25m.
February's durable goods data, like those of January, are expected to have been hit by weakness in civil aircraft orders. But unlike January's unexpected 9.9 per cent decline, economists predict a pick-up in defence and technology spending to limit February's fall. A drop in wholesale petrol prices is expected to depress the headline producer price index for February on Tuesday but the core number could be boosted by an increase in vehicle prices. Consensus estimates are for a 0.3 per cent fall in the headline number and a 0.1 per cent increase in the core rate.
CPI data is manipulated and is a pretty worthless guage of the state of the economy in my opinion, consumer confidence, commodity / energy market prices and any signs of a credit squeeze offers a better insight to inflationary pressures. The rate hikes have had minimal impact at the moment whether they're still feeding through the system or more will be required, GDP is still strong, employment is healthy and the USD is weakening. Strength of the USD and / or reduced demand being the only variables that could cool energy and commodity prices. IMO US economy is over heating and is inflationary.
Pat494
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Morris said:
This is the first step to try and isolate the USA from ALL oil sources. Now that would be scary for the US if they were to succeed.
Bird Brain will no doubt do the tried and tested method of threat and cajole, which will make matters not only worse, but totally disastrous if Europe ( French led ) dumps America.
Not only it seems is he is totally unaware of the dangers of Planet warming, but of almost everything else
mark twain uk
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it's not the iranian bourse but their centrifuges that have the potential to send the whole world into turmoil
This is overhyped media scaremongering.hmalik said:
IF the Iranian Bourse succeeds in gaining a significant amount of business (probably mainly from the Chinese & Indians) then this will be an added pressure on the dollar and will help to weaken it further against the Euro/Yen (which is likely to happen anyway). The most significant factor in oil for Euros is that it will partially undermine the $USD status as the worlds reserve currency since having ditched gold back in the 70's the $USD as a fiat currency is mainly backed by its status as the exclusive oil currency which hitherto every nation needed to have in order to purchase their oil.
No question that a successful Iranian Bourse, based on Euros, will help to weaken the $USD further but it won't result in any collapse of the currency or the US economy.
Bush & Cheney are using EXACTLY the same strategy as they did regarding Iraq - manipulate the news regarding the enemy, seek any excuse to start military action.
It's not so long ago that Saddam was Uncle Sams buddie in the Middle East (against Iran, remember that ?)
Now he's on trial and Iraq is 'fixed'. Expect the Iran situation to heat up before summer.
It's not so long ago that Saddam was Uncle Sams buddie in the Middle East (against Iran, remember that ?)
Now he's on trial and Iraq is 'fixed'. Expect the Iran situation to heat up before summer.
Has Bush got enough soldiers to go round or is he secretly cloning soldiers, I hope we dont send our UK lads out there, we've still got a pension hole that needs filling!!!
Anyone know when bernanke is making his speech cant get into tacticaltrader platform from work bit weird? so missing out on Bull and Maula's expertise
Anyone know when bernanke is making his speech cant get into tacticaltrader platform from work bit weird? so missing out on Bull and Maula's expertise
mark twain uk
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Bernanke's speach is at 00:00 GMT (7:00 pm local time)
No way is Bush going to invade Iran ! He has enough problems with Iraq & Afghanistan and there would be an uproar at home if he tried to extend his theatre of operations ito Iran aswell. He or Cheney may posture publicly to play brinkmanship with Tehran but they are not going to invade.Morris said:
If they want to initiate military action they will get the Israelis to bomb the Iranian nuclear sites and they may provide air & naval logistical support but no way is he going to put troops on the ground into Iran.