Dow 2006

[kriesau]

Shadowtrader still bullish !

http://www.redoption.com/shadow_video.php?ch=467

 

[mark twain uk]

....you're a top bloke Mark....not a top broke...remain that way....

J

J,

Thank you for your posts, I think I am closer to the latter than the former, I will look to close all my positions today or tomorrow and then think long and hard about what I did this year and what I should do next year. The decision may well be that I need to take a breather and go back to the drawing board. I simply cannot continue like this, I had the most appauling run of losses, statistically I should be close to the end of the bad run, but somehow I manage to extend it yet a bit further. Not a happy bunny at this time of the year, but I am philosophical about it, if there is a lesson to be learnt then this is the best way of learning it, the more hurtful the more memorable.

 

[dc2000]

as its Christmas I'll make my position crystal

Friday I was looking for
Mark PM

I will be looking for 365 expecting some early fast n false moves the drifting for the rest of the day moving toward position later in the day

My entry long is still the 365 area ( 100 points below the price now a nice little short ??) I will then be looking to be long for a couple of days and targeting 12615

 

[Pat494]

J,

Thank you for your posts, I think I am closer to the latter than the former, I will look to close all my positions today or tomorrow and then think long and hard about what I did this year and what I should do next year. The decision may well be that I need to take a breather and go back to the drawing board. I simply cannot continue like this, I had the most appauling run of losses, statistically I should be close to the end of the bad run, but somehow I manage to extend it yet a bit further. Not a happy bunny at this time of the year, but I am philosophical about it, if there is a lesson to be learnt then this is the best way of learning it, the more hurtful the more memorable.

Dont panic all is not lost. Most people have the problem of not knowing whether they are right or wrong. Somewhere in the 40%-60% area !
Just go through your usual routine but instead of the usual bet do the opposite. 100% wrong can be turned around very easily. You may think I am joking -but not really.

 

[hobby]

Dont panic all is not lost. Most people have the problem of not knowing whether they are right or wrong. Somewhere in the 40%-60% area !
Just go through your usual routine but instead of the usual bet do the opposite. 100% wrong can be turned around very easily. You may think I am joking -but not really.

IMHO ...that sounds like a recipe for disaster! The reason he is presumably sustaining chunky losses (iincidentally, he's not the only one...me shorts are on fire!), is cos he's been shorting the mkt when it won't lie down!

To do a 180deg turn now & start longing could be total suicide!

 

[Silvertip]

I tuned into Bloomberb radio for a few hours Friday gone, and I listened to all the experts one by one take the airwaves advising everybody how strong the market is and that the trend is to continue. Bloomberg bullish !

 

[Caesar]

Best prediction ever !

Morning Chaps and Chapesses, and a happy new year to you all...


thought i might put a little something on here for you to think about, based on seasonal tendencies..

the first chart, is a map of the tendencies for the Dow based on all data going back to 1928...

the second chart is a map of the tendencies for years ending in "6"...

the numbers on both scales are the "trading day of the year" (approx 240 per year)

as you can see, both are bullish at the start of the year, quiet in the middle, and then bullish for the rest of the year...

what is interesting, is that the "6" end of year rally starts at approximately the 130th Trading Day of the year... in other words, some time in mid-July...rather than the traditional early October rally...

will be interesting to look back on this at the end of 2006 to see what does happen in the end...

FC

i'm new to this site....but was pleasantly surprised to come across this post on predictions for the Dow for 2006...just looked back at the charts....and it 's uncannily accurate....please post for 2007 !

 

[hobby]

I tuned into Bloomberb radio for a few hours Friday gone, and I listened to all the experts one by one take the airwaves advising everybody how strong the market is and that the trend is to continue. Bloomberg bullish !

Bloomberg bullish? No change there then....it's the same with their Bloomberg TV channel.

In the light that most punters simply go long, they need to talk the mkt up...else they'll have no viewers, then no ad revenue (not that they get much anyway....how many 'trees for cities' & 'red bus' adverts can they run?!)..no ad revenue = no Bloomberg TV jobs!

 

[Silvertip]

Yes hobby this is correct, however it is also correct that we are in the midst of an amazingly strong bull market. The bears have been slaughtered, and once we get above 12500 today we can expect another push up to 12780, then we are likely to see another stage of accumulation. Opportunities to make money in the market rarely come this easy, and with all the commentators from various sources including Bloomberg providing bullish analysis we can only click buy and enjoy the ride!

 

[dc2000]

i'm new to this site....but was pleasantly surprised to come across this post on predictions for the Dow for 2006...just looked back at the charts....and it 's uncannily accurate....please post for 2007 !

another back to the future fan

 

[mark twain uk]

After so many gap ups, time for a gap down or we shall see yet another push higher? We'll find out soon enough.

 

[dc2000]

I think I am closer to the latter than the former, I will look to close all my positions today or tomorrow and then think long and hard about what I did this year and what I should do next year. The decision may well be that I need to take a breather and go back to the drawing board. I simply cannot continue like this, I had the most appauling run of losses, statistically I should be close to the end of the bad run, but somehow I manage to extend it yet a bit further. Not a happy bunny at this time of the year, but I am philosophical about it, if there is a lesson to be learnt then this is the best way of learning it, the more hurtful the more memorable.

Besides Mark, Anyone else need help ????

 

[Silvertip]

In order to obtain a destination (A mental projection of where one see's themselves at some point in the future), one must experience a process. Setting the target of a specific destination implies that one is not at the destination point and therefore in a state of process, the process remains ongoing until such time the destination is achieved. A destination cannot be achieved without a process from point A to point Z. A prudent money management strategy is what keeps one in the game whilst one experiences the pre-destination process. Does that make any sense ?

 

[mark twain uk]

I am only hoping for a pull back, but with my luck, I will not see it before I am cleaned out. It hurts when you see the consequences of your stupid actions.

 

[andycan]

I am only hoping for a pull back, but with my luck, I will not see it before I am cleaned out. It hurts when you see the consequences of your stupid actions.

consider it your tuition fees

 

[mark twain uk]

I've read somewhere that comedy is when somebody dies drowning in a sewer, whilst tragedy is when you break a finger. In the same vein, I felt sorry before for people who got broke, but the feeling I got now is not something I would wish to go through ever again. And it's been caused by three things: the absence of a clear trading plan; adding to losing positions; and lack of discipline.

I suppose lack of discipline is the main cause, I know what I need to do but I don't do it. Why? Maybe I am not as clever as I thought I was and I am not cut out to be a trader. This is a very ruthless environment in which one cannot afford too many mistakes. I am very close to making one too many.

 

[Silvertip]

Well Mark it sounds to me as though you have completed the first chapter in the book of trading. How long do you think you can go on without a clear trading plan, self discipline or money management ? The question you have to ask now is, shall I attempt to read the remaining chapters ?

 

[hobby]

And it's been caused by three things: the absence of a clear trading plan; adding to losing positions; and lack of discipline.

I wouldn't beat yourself up too badly (you're in good company - my losses are chunky!), I would have perhaps added a 4th reason.....

"a crazy *crazy* market that presently refuses to digest anything other than good news".

I enjoyed this article which I read this afternoon...

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/NoMoreBubbles.aspx

 

[mark twain uk]

Silvertip,

I am probably older than you, have been trading for seven years, your tone is a tad patronising, I really need some empathy at the moment, honestly.

 

[Pat494]

.

I suppose lack of discipline is the main cause, I know what I need to do but I don't do it. Why? Maybe I am not as clever as I thought I was and I am not cut out to be a trader. .

You seem to know the answer to your own problems i.e. lack of self-discipline. You could stop trading for the rest of this year and work on that one BASIC problem. Set yourself daily tasks, Easy ones at first and make sure you accomplish them even if it is past midnight and its pouring with rain - jog that 1/2 mile down the road and back ! etc.
Good luck , enjoy the pain !!