Dow 2006

[mark twain uk]

So whats the post Fed minutes consensus ?

Who is long (DC?) and who is short (MT?)

Dow currently 25pts off its post 2.15pm peak but still looking comfortable above 12250 and slowly climbing again as we move toward the close.

I am very short. FOMC minutes comments below:

"Although there was some slight improvement in core consumer inflation, "nearly all FOMC members viewed the current rates of core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation," the minutes said.
At the same time, Fed officials appeared slightly less worried that the slowing housing market would lead the economy into a recession.
Most FOMC members "judged that the downside risks to economic activity had diminished a little," the minutes said. "

My reading of it:

"further moderation" = interest rate rise = damage to stock market
risk of recession "diminished a little" = there is still risk of recession = damage to the stock market

I refer to the long article above: a recession is coming and for the first time the stock market is rallying. So either the recession will not come, or the rally is fake.

 

[Atilla]

Markets gone ape-**** if you ask me.

Saturated demand. Lot's of worries. Interest rates up. Gas and petrol reserves down. Markets well extended and non-supported and institutions still pumping money into the markets like there is no tomorrow.

Lots of cash sitting around with no where to go but into the markets. Either way it's either inflation or inflated stock values. Somethings gotta give.

I'm shorting the S&P500. If it brakes through the 1400 barrier for couple of days I'd then consider s/l. Otherwise I'm holding out for the big fall.

Nasdaq is well passed it's sell by date. Not too sure about the Dow. But according to Murphy Nasdaq should lead the rise in the Dow and not the lag it for true support.

So whats the post Fed minutes consensus ?

Who is long (DC?) and who is short (MT?)

Dow currently 25pts off its post 2.15pm peak but still looking comfortable above 12250 and slowly climbing again as we move toward the close.

 

[mark twain uk]

The PPT brigade is sweating to close up

 

[Hook Shot]

We haven't had more than a 200pts downmove for ages...... and even that took 6d. Look to buy around 12200 or even 12k - but then everyone knows that.......... Shorting is for scalpers right now.

 

[tricks]

The PPT brigade is sweating to close up

Just what I was thinking Mark, manipulation strikes again. There has to be some recognition of the true state of the economy. Where's the profit takers?

 

[mark twain uk]

As of EOD tonight, I am short the following:

in the US: the dow, the spx & MSFT
in the UK: the ftse and MKS & UK Retail
in Europe: Dax and Eustox 50

Seven short positions. Not a single long position. Anybody else as mad as I am?

Correction: Eight short positions, I missed UKRetail.

 

[dc2000]

still short DOW, the FTSE will have to wait till morning and 245ish will be looking for a Long on Cable mid morning

 

[Atilla]

I'm still shorting SPX and added to my position managed to pull some losses back from 1399. However, losing faith in my charts.

If SPX tests and stays above 1400 I'll be looking to close my positions and wait till the flurry of buying activity dies down. I'll be looking for price curve to cross my 20 / 34 day moving averages.

I've made some money on gold by going long today but have now switched to shorting it. It is in a nice decent downward band at the moment. I feel people will switch from gold to equities at this rate. China has lot's of BofP surplus and signalled it wants to increase it's gold reserves but not sure of impact on gold.

I did read your long article and thought it very interesting. I have a nagging feeling about big company reports from the states. Big guns like IBM, Cisco & Intel and Boeing have all sorts of creative accounting practices like entering 3 year contracts with spread payments as acruing in the first year. Not to mention good will means jack-pooh. My gut instincts still says we are in for a big melt down but the prices and indexes don't support that view. My chart projection takes the SPX up to the 1440 on my charts by 2nd week of December.

When I hold more than 2 or 3 positions I begin to lose my marbles.

Good luck to you mate.

As of EOD tonight, I am short the following:

in the US: the dow, the spx & MSFT
in the UK: the ftse and MKS & UK Retail
in Europe: Dax and Eustox 50

Seven short positions. Not a single long position. Anybody else as mad as I am?

Correction: Eight short positions, I missed UKRetail.

 

[FetteredChinos]

what happened to buying dips, guys?

i guess i must be the only one still long

 

[karmit]

what happened to buying dips, guys?

i guess i must be the only one still long

I can't see any dips?!... but I can't see anything at the moment.. my eyes are a wee bit watery..

and my backside is hurting as well...

 

[Pat494]

Seven short positions. Not a single long position. Anybody else as mad as I am?

Correction: Eight short positions, I missed UKRetail.

ERRRRRRRRR No
:cheesy:

If it is of any comfort - my indicators are saying UP which will almost certainly predict DOWN

 

[FetteredChinos]

you gotta love parabolic markets...

up we go again chaps...

 

[mark twain uk]

another pre-market spike up, they are carrying on, I am still short, short indices, short of breath, short of cash and probably short of common sense, as I have just added at 12,300 and 1399 cash

 

[mark twain uk]

This parabolic market is unlike anything I have ever seen. I suppose at some point I will have to start scaling out, the trouble is that every time I did that the market reversed the day after, so I am still fighting the battle between losing my money or losing my convictions.

 

[FetteredChinos]

good luck mark,

personally, i fancy a run at 12,400 today...

its options expiry this friday i believe, and any sell-off, i believe is likely to occur early next week. dont thnk it will be all that savage though.

 

[dc2000]

given the pattern I'll be looking for a B/E exit

 

[mark twain uk]

good luck mark,

personally, i fancy a run at 12,400 today...

its options expiry this friday i believe, and any sell-off, i believe is likely to occur early next week. dont thnk it will be all that savage though.

Thank you FC, I definitely need it (the luck, that is) maybe one day we'll find out who was doing all this buying and why, day after day, week after week, month after month, we get these pre-market spikes in the futures that drag the cash market with them, it must be some massive hedge funds, they are the only ones with the financial muscle (apart from arab oil money and China, but if they were behind the buying it would have leaked by now).

 

[kriesau]

good luck mark,

personally, i fancy a run at 12,400 today...

its options expiry this friday i believe, and any sell-off, i believe is likely to occur early next week. dont thnk it will be all that savage though.

Happy to be on the sidelines having resisted temptation yesterday to short the NDX for the third time in a week at 1809. It is usually foolish and difficult to try and find tops but sometimes it can be tempting and occasionally lucrative so long as you keep tight stops.

I think we are close to the top of this very long rally and that we may see a turn occur at anytime now. If it doesn't happen in the next few days then the Thanksgiving weekend could be the catalyst . When it does break it will be sharp and sudden !

 

[mark twain uk]

given the pattern I'll be looking for a B/E exit

I have managed to survive all these spikes by adding at new tops and closing some on pull backs, so I will attempt to do the same, if not I'll have to jump off

 

[FetteredChinos]

could end up with an Oops trade on the sell side if we arent careful.....