Do you agree with this statement?

MajorMagnuM

Legendary member
9,284 888
or this post? 27097
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ng-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-3871.html

or this post 27124 which was made 40 minutes before the move ,
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3875.html#post2413006

and post 27148
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3879.html#post2413088

Shame so much evidence is needed on an educational forum, but i understand why. is there a written policy in what constitutes evidence, as i suspect the above will qualify for some and not for others that use more formal ways of posting their thoughts.
ie long here to x/y with z pip stop loss.
personally I find that method does not fit trading m1. as i improve im sure i can adapt
 
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tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
or this post? 27097
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ng-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-3871.html

or this post 27124 which was made 40 minutes before the move ,
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3875.html#post2413006

and post 27148
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3879.html#post2413088

Shame so much evidence is needed on an educational forum, but i understand why. is there a written policy in what constitutes evidence, as i suspect the above will qualify for some and not for others that use more formal ways of posting their thoughts.
ie long here to x/y with z pip stop loss.
personally I find that method does not fit trading m1. as i improve im sure i can adapt

Evidence for what ?! I dont see any !

2850 plus is possible i think

well i see structure saying higher

gu 6019 could be a huge boost if it gets above that
 
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barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
..............I trade the DAX on a 1 minute chart using just price action and volume. There are recurring patterns that will give a 55-60% strike rate with 2:1 profit/stop loss.............

Doesn't your example support what Dampier is saying? As a prediction you are saying that you are wrong 40-45% of the time. Your example is not one of straight directional prediction but of statistical probability that x is more likely than y - presumably what Dampier was getting at.
 

Big_P

Member
97 18
Doesn't your example support what Dampier is saying? As a prediction you are saying that you are wrong 40-45% of the time. Your example is not one of straight directional prediction but of statistical probability that x is more likely than y - presumably what Dampier was getting at.

I don't disagree with you Barjon.

But when you read the whole paragraph, his implication is that any short term daytrading is impossible. He says daytraders "rely on guesswork" and uses the words "professional gambling".

I would argue that if you have a strategy that has positive expectancy and you know that it has a statisical probability of x being more likely that y, such that if you trade your probabilities and grind out your edge, you will make money - then you are neither "relying on guesswork" or "professional gambling"....

And to comment on the use of "edge", I think it is VERY relevant in trading. I will use an example.

You have tested a strategy whereby 60% of your trades will make a profit. As long as your profit/loss ratio exceeds 1:1, then you have an edge. Your edge is the ability to 'grind out' your stategy over time to give yourself a profit. Your edge is the ability to make money when others can't.
 
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Trader333

Moderator
8,646 977
or this post? 27097
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ng-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-3871.html

or this post 27124 which was made 40 minutes before the move ,
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3875.html#post2413006

and post 27148
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ert-retail-forex-trader-3879.html#post2413088

Shame so much evidence is needed on an educational forum, but i understand why. is there a written policy in what constitutes evidence, as i suspect the above will qualify for some and not for others that use more formal ways of posting their thoughts.
ie long here to x/y with z pip stop loss.
personally I find that method does not fit trading m1. as i improve im sure i can adapt

Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
.......I would argue that if you have a strategy that has positive expectancy and you know that it has a statisical probability of x being more likely that y, such that if you trade your probabilities and grind out your edge, you will make money - then you are neither "relying on guesswork" or "professional gambling"....

............ Your edge is the ability to make money when others can't........

What we do when we trade is to make an assumption about where price will go, take adequate advantage when it does and limit the damage when it doesn't. Whether that assumption is robust and whether you call it a "prediction" or a "guess" is probably much less important than your discipline in managing the outcome.

I'd say that "your edge is the ability to make money when others can't" relies heavily on that discipline.
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.

Agree but to be fair making money for a month or so doesn't make him a profitable trader , many traders can make money for a month , 30% of US forex retail traders are profitable in any given Q - proved - .
 
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Trader333

Moderator
8,646 977
I agree and he only did this as an example because after showing it for a month continuing to do so was pointless. It was quite a while later when a few of us visited him and watched him trade where he had a very profitable afternoon making around $2K if I remember. The way he trades is different to anyone else I have seen trade which is probably why he was (and still is) successful.
 
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tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
I agree and he only did this as an example because after showing it for a month continuing to do so was pointless. It was quite a while later when a few of us visited him and watched him trade where he had a very profitable afternoon making around $2K if I remember. The way he trades is different to anyone else I have seen trade which is probably why he was (and still is) successful.

I have seen many beautiful equity curves and profitable track records to end in a bad or a horrible way or at least to become obsolete - sideways - , even after years of good performance .
 
1

12WBT

0 0
Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.
did you trade full time after this.
 

Mr Fox

Established member
510 136
Not at all as stating that "Something could be a huge move" is like me saying the Dow could go down today or up. The only person on this forum who proved that they could make between $2k and $10K a day in profit pretty much every day was Grey1 who posted his accounts at the end of every day for over a month. He did have losing days but he was happy to show what could be made and happy for several of us here to visit him FOC and watch him do it in real time.

Nothing else cuts it for me and I doubt for most others either. Show your trading statements at the end of each day and I will believe you otherwise nothing you can say will change my view. and most of the members here who have seen time and again people claiming to make money that is never backed up by any real evidence.

Good Afternoon Trader333,

First of all I hope you've had a profitable day trading, along with all members of this forum.

I totally agree with the essence of your message, and truly believe that without empirical evidence, then claims, however fantastical they are, remain just claims.

I see you have been trading for quite a while, have had the pleasure of watching many a profitable trader grace these boards, learn from them, more importantly learn from Iraj, to the point where you have gained valuable insight to visit him, and watch him trade live. An experience which most newbies would love, as many a great insight/technique can be learnt.

So my question to you is, how profitable are you now, and having the elevated status as a moderator, why not lead by example and post your method with end of day account statements.

I say the above with all due respect, and appreciate it is ones prerogative as to, what to show, and what not to.

Best
John.
 

MajorMagnuM

Legendary member
9,284 888
Good Afternoon Trader333,

First of all I hope you've had a profitable day trading, along with all members of this forum.

I totally agree with the essence of your message, and truly believe that without empirical evidence, then claims, however fantastical they are, remain just claims.

I see you have been trading for quite a while, have had the pleasure of watching many a profitable trader grace these boards, learn from them, more importantly learn from Iraj, to the point where you have gained valuable insight to visit him, and watch him trade live. An experience which most newbies would love, as many a great insight/technique can be learnt.

So my question to you is, how profitable are you now, and having the elevated status as a moderator, why not lead by example and post your method with end of day account statements.

I say the above with all due respect, and appreciate it is ones prerogative as to, what to show, and what not to.

Best
John.

my question would be, as an integral part of this site, which of those lessons were you allowed to and did share for the education of others. i would love to learn more of what this chap did.
 

scholfield

Established member
993 233
Grey1 was the real deal.
The only person we have here now who likely makes lots of money everyday is DowJones.
(although he mainly only has statements as proof) wheras as Grey1 made the CLEAREST CALLS you could imagine-( not like the games played with the 'calls' in another thread which is best kept out of this, lol) aswell as statements and there was no possible doubt as to whether he was a consistently profitable trader or not.

Unfortunately, this was all in the trade2win glory days, and now we have nothing that comes close.
 
 
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