Determining direction is just Step 1. And straightforward. After that, I suggest two further measures are useful if this is going to be the basis of a trend-following trade, helping to optimise entry and also to select the best instrument from a number of potential charts -
a) probability of trend continuation over desired time period or to desired target,
b) probability of imminent and significant with-trend price movement
Everyone might have their own preferences here, and some may even use an off-chart technical indicator, but what is alarming is when some traders don't seem to give a thought to either a) or b). I don't have much faith in indicators but I use/have used a range of indications such as -
a)
length of trend since price last crossed 50EMA
no. of price/50EMA crosses in last 6mths
are 50 and 200EMA sloping in same direction?
no. of 50/200EMA crosses in last 12mths
how many weekly highs, lows and closes are on the "right" side of the 50EMA in last 3mths/6mths
b)
how many prior weekly bars does current/last week's bar overlap with?
can an entry order price level be used which shows a breach of a recent weekly high/low?
can entry price be at close of first day after pull-back with higher close than open for an uptrend, or lower close than open for a downtrend?
is price % change accelerating in trend direction over recent weeks?
In both cases, a) and b) -
in stocks, is trend in same direction as major stock indices?
in forex, are other pairs based on this currency also moving in same direction?