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momentintime
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How many days on the average in a month bring 2 trades with +2?
I cant say ...
My backtest until beginning of october, I stopped trading after the first trade was in profit.
My forward test results which are posted all here since Jan 20 I take a second trade if it happens before 12nn EST.
I attach my backtest again.
Below the backtest you find the forward testing since jan 20
I am off to bed now, its 0:50 am here.
My backtest until beginning of october, I stopped trading after the first trade was in profit.
My forward test results which are posted all here since Jan 20 I take a second trade if it happens before 12nn EST.
I attach my backtest again.
Below the backtest you find the forward testing since jan 20
I am off to bed now, its 0:50 am here.
Hi there!
I bought the ebook mid of January and I'd like to report my experience up to now.
I try to be the more objective I can and just give my point of view on the system as a whole.
My P/L is currently a red figure but I also made some mistakes not following the entry rules 100%.
I believe the substance is one and only one. It comes from math facts:
You're all talking about a 5 pts stop loss but please note that inside the ebook a 6 pts stop is recommended by the author.
So, if the target is 2 pts and the stop 6 pts then R/R is 1/3.
This means that the expectancy of the system is 0 when:
(avg win X % winnin trades) + (avg loss X % losing trades) = 0
With 1 contract this translates into: (100$ X 0,75) - (300 x 0,25) = 0
In other words the system needs to be right (system accuracy) AT LEAST on 75% of times. But this is not enough... We have to consider commissions. With the incidence of commissions, in MY CASE the system needs to be right on 78% of trades at least.
So, the point is: according the performance showed in the last 6 months on the site (accuracy above 85%), no doubt we end up winning. But, like me, if you entered late January and you have a performance of about 76% you end up loosing... So am I in a kind of drawdown and just need to hold on?!?
Conclusion: I'm not a seasoned trader so I cannot bring my past experience but I read many (I mean over 40) books and in no one of them It is stated that the accuracy of a GOOD trading system may reach 65%/70% over the long run. So I'm a little worried... But I also know that the secret to be winner in the long run is to to try to have an edge (even little) and stick with the system in a religious way. The more we change and jump from one ssytem to another the least we last on the market... The point is: does this system have an edge?!? We would need a track record over, say 4-5 years and not only 6 months...
I bought the ebook mid of January and I'd like to report my experience up to now.
I try to be the more objective I can and just give my point of view on the system as a whole.
My P/L is currently a red figure but I also made some mistakes not following the entry rules 100%.
I believe the substance is one and only one. It comes from math facts:
You're all talking about a 5 pts stop loss but please note that inside the ebook a 6 pts stop is recommended by the author.
So, if the target is 2 pts and the stop 6 pts then R/R is 1/3.
This means that the expectancy of the system is 0 when:
(avg win X % winnin trades) + (avg loss X % losing trades) = 0
With 1 contract this translates into: (100$ X 0,75) - (300 x 0,25) = 0
In other words the system needs to be right (system accuracy) AT LEAST on 75% of times. But this is not enough... We have to consider commissions. With the incidence of commissions, in MY CASE the system needs to be right on 78% of trades at least.
So, the point is: according the performance showed in the last 6 months on the site (accuracy above 85%), no doubt we end up winning. But, like me, if you entered late January and you have a performance of about 76% you end up loosing... So am I in a kind of drawdown and just need to hold on?!?
Conclusion: I'm not a seasoned trader so I cannot bring my past experience but I read many (I mean over 40) books and in no one of them It is stated that the accuracy of a GOOD trading system may reach 65%/70% over the long run. So I'm a little worried... But I also know that the secret to be winner in the long run is to to try to have an edge (even little) and stick with the system in a religious way. The more we change and jump from one ssytem to another the least we last on the market... The point is: does this system have an edge?!? We would need a track record over, say 4-5 years and not only 6 months...
momentintime
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Than you DanS and darkswan for sharing. It appears to be a looser overall. Do not wait 4-5 years to find out...
rgsharp
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pedro01
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OK - fair enough - but let's factor in the 4 points as well because you aren't getting out of every trade after 2 points, right ?
Without knowing the rules myself, I'd say that this should bring the required win rate down to some degree.
Also - with a 5 point stop loss & a 2 point target, on a random entry, you will hit your target 71.5% of the time. With a 6 point stop loss & a 2 point target, on a random entry, you will hit your target 75% of the time. That's basic math. So don't think that 75% is a particularly lofty goal with this stop loss/target ratio. If the system has an edge it would be able to exceed that. Now - drawdowns are a different matter altogether.
I guess the question is (and remember - I don't know the rules) - why is it that you know the trade is going against you, in all market conditions exactly at 5 points ? Shouldn't there be an evaluation for every trade whereby you figure out at what point you know you were wrong about the market direction ? Is that always 5 points ?
Perhaps this is a system that can be refined somewhat by having a clearer idea of what constitutes a failed trade, other than hitting an arbitrary stop loss number of points that never changes with volatility.
Just a thought...
I totally agree with you Pedro! I believe that the stop loss management should be improved and somehow adapted to the situation...
Without disclosing the rules in respect to the person that is actually making a business on it, I nevertheless believe that the trading system itself is not the usual garbage that we may get out of the web in form of various ebooks. I say so because:
1) the system is very simple and objective leaving very little or nothing to the trader's discretion in terms of entry signal
2) there are no tricky indicators but only price action
3) it is nothing but a variation and adaption of of the opening range breakout (well known and appreciated authors as Toby Crabel and Jake Bernstein wrote a lot in regard)
Further: if we take the performance history on the site we see that the worst month was december 08 with 6 losses. February up to the last week had 5 losses. Then... yes one more happened yesterday and I'm sure will be reported by the author. So 6 losses have been reached even in february. Let's hope this is another bad month... That is why I said it would be interesting to have a track record of more than 6 months...
Without disclosing the rules in respect to the person that is actually making a business on it, I nevertheless believe that the trading system itself is not the usual garbage that we may get out of the web in form of various ebooks. I say so because:
1) the system is very simple and objective leaving very little or nothing to the trader's discretion in terms of entry signal
2) there are no tricky indicators but only price action
3) it is nothing but a variation and adaption of of the opening range breakout (well known and appreciated authors as Toby Crabel and Jake Bernstein wrote a lot in regard)
Further: if we take the performance history on the site we see that the worst month was december 08 with 6 losses. February up to the last week had 5 losses. Then... yes one more happened yesterday and I'm sure will be reported by the author. So 6 losses have been reached even in february. Let's hope this is another bad month... That is why I said it would be interesting to have a track record of more than 6 months...
rgsharp
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Stop Loss
That a stop loss should be entered for a trade is of paramount importance, so new traders should understand that a stop loss set at 5 points (or anywhere) is infinitely better than no stop loss at all.
However, once the trade is triggered the stop loss position needs looking at. In the same way that price action is used to enter the trade so must price action be used to move the stop. Stops must have technical protection: 1/ Opposing trade sets up, 2/ prior high/lows within the trend, 3/ above/below high/low of the day, 4/Behind support/resistance area, etc. Also, as targets are hit the stop should be trailed, again using technical protection and taking into account if we are in a low, normal or large price ranging day.
I am also of the opinion that the Author may have produced some interesting work here and look forward to trying it out. My comments on stop loss are not intended as a criticism of his work; maybe between all of us we can refine the system to everyone’s benefit.
Good luck Richard.
That a stop loss should be entered for a trade is of paramount importance, so new traders should understand that a stop loss set at 5 points (or anywhere) is infinitely better than no stop loss at all.
However, once the trade is triggered the stop loss position needs looking at. In the same way that price action is used to enter the trade so must price action be used to move the stop. Stops must have technical protection: 1/ Opposing trade sets up, 2/ prior high/lows within the trend, 3/ above/below high/low of the day, 4/Behind support/resistance area, etc. Also, as targets are hit the stop should be trailed, again using technical protection and taking into account if we are in a low, normal or large price ranging day.
I am also of the opinion that the Author may have produced some interesting work here and look forward to trying it out. My comments on stop loss are not intended as a criticism of his work; maybe between all of us we can refine the system to everyone’s benefit.
Good luck Richard.
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So JP, why no trial available?
Why deny prospective customers the opportunity to test the product?
I saw the offer of a short free trial in December, but was too busy at the time and planned to revisit later. Now that I look again, the free trial is no longer available. A pity as I thought that a good way to do an initial evaluation, without the author revealing the details.
Scam or not you answer John Paul ?
I have read with interest this thread and and everyone wants to determine whether this method is profitable or not. People have asked to see trading statements which to me is not unreasonable but to date no statements have been forthcoming. JOHN PAUL, I also have an account with Mirus brokers so all I ask is for you to give me the contact name of your account executive so that he can verify to me the average number of contracts you would be trading per day. I do not want to know how large your account is or even if it is profitable.
I also use ninjatrader as my trading platform and all the videos you show are not live trades but are on the ninjatrader simulator account why is this?
If JOHN PAUL does not reply to this message I can only leave judgement to the people who read this as to whether they want to part with their hard earned cash
I have read with interest this thread and and everyone wants to determine whether this method is profitable or not. People have asked to see trading statements which to me is not unreasonable but to date no statements have been forthcoming. JOHN PAUL, I also have an account with Mirus brokers so all I ask is for you to give me the contact name of your account executive so that he can verify to me the average number of contracts you would be trading per day. I do not want to know how large your account is or even if it is profitable.
I also use ninjatrader as my trading platform and all the videos you show are not live trades but are on the ninjatrader simulator account why is this?
If JOHN PAUL does not reply to this message I can only leave judgement to the people who read this as to whether they want to part with their hard earned cash
Hello All,
I was going to post my weekly update but my numbers are right inline with the performance history on the website. Since the time available to me varies each day, the results won't be the same as his. For example, some trades occur around or after 11am EST, but I typcially won't be trading then, so I would have no trade but there would actually be a trade. I will say however, that it has shown a profit for me since starting on Feb 12th.
My advice is this...take his performance history and copy/paste it into your own spread sheet. Then change all of the winning trades to 2 points for an accurate report of winning amount (assuming you close your entire position at 2 points). If you want to see how it would have done with the 2/4 point exit strategy, then leave the 2&4 point ones alone and change all of the 2-point only winners to 1 point (which is what you would net assuming you moved your stop to b/e after hitting your first 2 point target). See which one is more profitable.
I was going to post my weekly update but my numbers are right inline with the performance history on the website. Since the time available to me varies each day, the results won't be the same as his. For example, some trades occur around or after 11am EST, but I typcially won't be trading then, so I would have no trade but there would actually be a trade. I will say however, that it has shown a profit for me since starting on Feb 12th.
My advice is this...take his performance history and copy/paste it into your own spread sheet. Then change all of the winning trades to 2 points for an accurate report of winning amount (assuming you close your entire position at 2 points). If you want to see how it would have done with the 2/4 point exit strategy, then leave the 2&4 point ones alone and change all of the 2-point only winners to 1 point (which is what you would net assuming you moved your stop to b/e after hitting your first 2 point target). See which one is more profitable.
Yeah, I should ahve said up until this week. It looks like he only updates his history once a week or so. I don't know if they will match up or not but I don't see why they wouldn't because the entries are exact (to the tick). I'll go ahead and post mine for the week:
2/23/2009 No Trade 0
2/24/2009 Short 2 100
2/25/2009 Short 2 100
2/26/2009 Long 2 100
2/27/2009 Long 2 100
I do want to point something out about the one on the 25th. First, it signaled later than I typcially trade but I happend to be in front of my computer that day. Also, that trade was IFFY because it filled me, came down and hit the 2-point target, but it didn't stay there long (it counted me as filled on the simulator). Now, had I been trading this live, I probably would have moved my stop to b/e and/or just tried to close the trade out for some profit because I don't think I would have been filled at the 2-point profit target.
Interestingly enough, if you were trading live and didn't touch it, price would have moved against you 4.5 points (2 ticks away from the stop), then came back down and definately hit the 2 point target, so technically it was a 2 point winner.
2/23/2009 No Trade 0
2/24/2009 Short 2 100
2/25/2009 Short 2 100
2/26/2009 Long 2 100
2/27/2009 Long 2 100
I do want to point something out about the one on the 25th. First, it signaled later than I typcially trade but I happend to be in front of my computer that day. Also, that trade was IFFY because it filled me, came down and hit the 2-point target, but it didn't stay there long (it counted me as filled on the simulator). Now, had I been trading this live, I probably would have moved my stop to b/e and/or just tried to close the trade out for some profit because I don't think I would have been filled at the 2-point profit target.
Interestingly enough, if you were trading live and didn't touch it, price would have moved against you 4.5 points (2 ticks away from the stop), then came back down and definately hit the 2 point target, so technically it was a 2 point winner.
fortunewarrior
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John Paul winning percentage
I´ve been following this thread with interest and also corresponded with John Paul. In my mind the most critical factors of this strategy are its win percentage and its MAX drawdown.
I´ve requested John Paul several times to share what the exact win % is in the last 3-6 months, but all he has responded is that it is "high" (whatever that means.)
My feeling is the strategy has its merit as a "compass" or a trigger alert, but in my case, wouldn´t be inclined to trade it with the stop loss and profit targets he recommends, not to mention the 10-20 contract commitment. I´ve been following his videos and comparing them with some of my indicators and found his system could be a good confirmation tool or trigger for other approaches that use a narrower stop loss.
Also, from reading all the posts the 2 OR 4 point target, stop loss strategy after 1st contract hits target, etc. is a little confusing... to me at least. So i´m sure the system will have different results if you only went for 2p, if you went for 2 and 4, depending how you stop out on 2nd contract,etc. Maybe without giving away the system someone or John Paul himself could clarify how this part works.
The other thing that isn´t clear if the trades he publishes are ALL the valid trades that appear everyday, or just the ones he took.
The most attractive part of the strategy is that it seems to be extremely simple and only price based, but for me this is not enough if we don´t know the exact win % over at least a 3-6 month period, what the AVERAGE winner/AVERAGE looser ratio is and the MAX drawdown the strategy undergoes in a week and in a month.
For me, with these CLEAR stats, this system -or any other one- can be properly analyzed and see if it is viable or has inherent flaws that will blow up your account at some point in time.
For people who are starting with this strategy my humble suggestion would be to paper trade it first for at least a few weeks and then get started with no more than 2 contracts and slowly build up your account.
Thanks to all members for your candid input on the strategy. FW.
I´ve been following this thread with interest and also corresponded with John Paul. In my mind the most critical factors of this strategy are its win percentage and its MAX drawdown.
I´ve requested John Paul several times to share what the exact win % is in the last 3-6 months, but all he has responded is that it is "high" (whatever that means.)
My feeling is the strategy has its merit as a "compass" or a trigger alert, but in my case, wouldn´t be inclined to trade it with the stop loss and profit targets he recommends, not to mention the 10-20 contract commitment. I´ve been following his videos and comparing them with some of my indicators and found his system could be a good confirmation tool or trigger for other approaches that use a narrower stop loss.
Also, from reading all the posts the 2 OR 4 point target, stop loss strategy after 1st contract hits target, etc. is a little confusing... to me at least. So i´m sure the system will have different results if you only went for 2p, if you went for 2 and 4, depending how you stop out on 2nd contract,etc. Maybe without giving away the system someone or John Paul himself could clarify how this part works.
The other thing that isn´t clear if the trades he publishes are ALL the valid trades that appear everyday, or just the ones he took.
The most attractive part of the strategy is that it seems to be extremely simple and only price based, but for me this is not enough if we don´t know the exact win % over at least a 3-6 month period, what the AVERAGE winner/AVERAGE looser ratio is and the MAX drawdown the strategy undergoes in a week and in a month.
For me, with these CLEAR stats, this system -or any other one- can be properly analyzed and see if it is viable or has inherent flaws that will blow up your account at some point in time.
For people who are starting with this strategy my humble suggestion would be to paper trade it first for at least a few weeks and then get started with no more than 2 contracts and slowly build up your account.
Thanks to all members for your candid input on the strategy. FW.
Weekly performance 2-23-09 to 2-27-09 6 out of 6 winners
It is interesting how people comment and make assumptions without having purchased the course, or even giving it a chance. The winning results posted are accurate. I answer questions daily to all our clients who are very happy with the performance, accuracy and percentages. Here is the results for this week. 6 out of 6 winning trades.
It would seem the only people i have to answer questions to are Clients.
Here are the results for the past week.
2/23/2009 No Trade Setup
2/24/2009 ATO 10:00 AM SHORT WINNER 2 POINTS $1,000 $2,000
ATO 10:35 AM LONG WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
2/25/2009 ATO 10:05 AM SHORT WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
2/26/2009 ATO 10:30 AM LONG WINNER 2 POINTS $1,000 $2,000
ATO 12:50 PM SHORT WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
2/27/2009 ATO 10:10 AM LONG WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
It is interesting how people comment and make assumptions without having purchased the course, or even giving it a chance. The winning results posted are accurate. I answer questions daily to all our clients who are very happy with the performance, accuracy and percentages. Here is the results for this week. 6 out of 6 winning trades.
It would seem the only people i have to answer questions to are Clients.
Here are the results for the past week.
2/23/2009 No Trade Setup
2/24/2009 ATO 10:00 AM SHORT WINNER 2 POINTS $1,000 $2,000
ATO 10:35 AM LONG WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
2/25/2009 ATO 10:05 AM SHORT WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
2/26/2009 ATO 10:30 AM LONG WINNER 2 POINTS $1,000 $2,000
ATO 12:50 PM SHORT WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
2/27/2009 ATO 10:10 AM LONG WINNER 2 & 4 Pts $1,500 $3,000
pedro01
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That is the correct attitude to take if you don't want new clients.
The questions on here are mostly not attacks - just people trying to figure out the value of your material.
Some people like to scratch beneath the surface before committing the money & the time. Some people will buy based on little information.
Surely you'd want to appeal to both groups to maximise your revenue, right ?
The questions on here are mostly not attacks - just people trying to figure out the value of your material.
Some people like to scratch beneath the surface before committing the money & the time. Some people will buy based on little information.
Surely you'd want to appeal to both groups to maximise your revenue, right ?
rathcoole_exile
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