Dax

[Hook Shot]

Well the Dax has been the place for action this week ... I can say!
We hit the predictable 6200/220 zone once we fell apart ..... but held to close above it.
6220ish was 50ma, 6185 was ~25% of June rally and 6200 was old sppt.....


The question now is .... have we had a wild ABC pbk to support or is there something more.....?

Who knows ...... but the failure yesterday followed by new lows today "feels" like we're in a fast move south ......... and perhaps the low today is temporary.

Time will tell........ It's certainly Show Me time for the Dax :!:

HS

 

[daxdaytrader]

The last time the DAX took a plunge off a top channel doji like this and hit lows was early to mid July. These moves may of shook out some weak holders, but the trend still looks intact.

Scenario 1. Looking for a break of 278, buy it as support and then move up to challenge 385 area. If this scenario is correct then 385 will be very strong support for further moves up, and would be a good price to buy and hold.

Scenario 2. If the market gaps lower this week and trades a narrow range, expect a downtrend.

 

[firewalker99]

The question now is .... have we had a wild ABC pbk to support or is there something more.....?

Who knows ...... but the failure yesterday followed by new lows today "feels" like we're in a fast move south ......... and perhaps the low today is temporary.

HS

I'll join you in that "feeling". Looking at the chart put up by daxdaytrader you can also note the very high selling volume on last couple of days.

 

[catracho]

so are we going to get a break to new lows..or a longer rally like 28-29 November? see chart

 

[dcraig1]

We'll need to see after the US open, but so far the volume on any move up today has been quite weak. Red line overlaid on volume bars shows average volume at time of day.

 

[daxdaytrader]

so are we going to get a break to new lows..or a longer rally like 28-29 November? see chart

The longterm uptrend is still intact, middle term trend is down, so fading the highs is as valid as buying any trend bottoms. If we get support on 78, then favour buying. Rapid drops below the longterm trend seem unlikely, probably be like treacle down there, but if it gets far below 20, then we may be looking to continue down.

 

[Hook Shot]

Now the battle is for the ground above 6366/7 once more...... there's probably gonna be  a lot of pushing and pulling......and above that looms the daunting (for now) 400/420 area...

If we get an inside day ....... Monday is gonna be mega!

Auf Wiedersehen

No inside day Friday as we all know but we got one today..........shux!
This PROBABLY means ...... it's a trade of the break above 302 towards 366/67 wall then (- 400-420 on by wed).

However, that's not a nice trade for me as there is not enough to get my hands around - the market is now a little stretched to the upside for my style and would need a pullback to give me some sort of EDGE(?) on the long side.

Consequently, I'm looking for the rally/pop to burn itself out and take the next move down.... Tues/Wed or whenever it comes this week.

General Comments

I feel that within 7-10d the World Markets should certainly have made their mind up .....Sp500 still okay (and Dax is weaker but strategically still hanging on). There are some timing factors which mean Dec9-Dec11 could be key.

Lets see because like many things in this great game these timing windows only indicate "potential" for a turn - unfortunately :cheesy:

Hook Shot

 

[catracho]

I feel that within 7-10d the World Markets should certainly have made their mind up  .....Sp500 still okay (and Dax is weaker but strategically still hanging on).  There are some timing factors which mean Dec9-Dec11 could be key.  

Lets see because like many things in this great game these timing windows are only indicate "potential" for a turn - unfortunately :cheesy: 

Hook Shot[/QUOTE]
Your time frames are also picked out in ..[url]www.mclarenreport.com.au/yvs500/default.asp?id=908[/url] 
looks at DAX and also sees a high in US mkts  by Dec 11th..

 

[Hook Shot]

Your time frames are also picked out in ..www.mclarenreport.com.au/yvs500/default.asp?id=908
looks at DAX and also sees a high in US mkts by Dec 11th..

Good one Catracho - I learned my basic timing from Bill during the bear market years........ and always check in on him( if I can get up in time for CNBC on Mondays ... if not then online!).

 

[rustic1]

Hook Shot

You mentioned you would like to se a pullback, what are you looking for to buy

Thanks

 

[Hook Shot]

Hook Shot

You mentioned you would like to se a pullback, what are you looking for to buy

Thanks

Oh you shouldn't tempt me ......
The silly answer is as close to 6230 as poss..... (perhaps only teeny weeny bit silly).

Another answer maybe 1/3 -1/2 of the 195-302 move

1/3 ~ 263/4
3/8 ~ 260/31
1/2 ~ 248

Roughly sub 260 but that's not necessarily a great buy but it would give me a bit bit more comfort

I expect the move to continue Tuesday......... so these initial estimates may vary.........

IMPORTANT
Dax is questionable near term (despite hanging on strategically) so info given above is for brave short term traders only.

Bill Maclaren is looking for Daxf to see 6000 in the not too distant future probably after consolidating Friday's kickin'. That equates to sub 6000 on cash which is ~ 300 below Monday's close.......... bear that in mind. Daxf now is 310/22 @ 2138h -4 Dec06.

Bill Mac can be found on Ftse Thread where Atilla posted his weblink Monday.

Disclaimer
Hook Shot - doesn't really have any more idea than most of you - he just likes to think he does ................ :!:

 

[daxdaytrader]

A nice rally through the afternoon session, but I did not spot the pivot just under 70, as too busy looking around 77. (Lesson - Need to heed the chart not the expectation, dojis gave it away.) Even so, the lows touched along old trendline support and also made for solid buys. All textbook stuff really, very plane charts.

Tomorrow look for support, 300 maybe, to take us up to the 85 area. Might take a look at options again, but 85 area may kick this uptrend down if it doesn't flop anyway.

 

[rustic1]

Think the Dax was showing off a bit yesterday and looking for a top 5/6 of Dec before down again

 

[Hook Shot]

Another answer maybe 1/3 -1/2 of the 195-302 move

I expect the move to continue Tuesday......... so these initial estimates may vary.........

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The move up did continue on Tuesday........... not many surprises there -hopefully.

But in In the end the pbk we wanted was not sub 260 but 287 - I did say the intial estimates may vary.

Because of the extension the range we got before pbk was 6195-6339. The range calculation changed and taking a 1/3-1/2 of that (which is asking for quite an aggressive pullback) yielded.....

1/3 ~ 291.................38.2% ~ 284....3/8 ~285..........1/2 ~ 267.

Well we got a low around 287 which was in the 1/3-1/2 range and then Dax exploded by almost 100pts (94pts actually). So proving (to a certain extent) the credibility of the 287 pbk..

Anyway we can argue about that ....perhaps.... but now we are looking head on at 6400-6430 and the Dax is now 2d off the lows and really should be nearing some kind of turning point - IF it is still as weak as it appeared last week...... do I detect a little poetry there ?

As you know it can be dangerous to get wedded to a particular idea in this game so I'm gonna maintain my flexible stance and say that I am expecting burnout this week..... but will let the market tell me when it's tired.

As I've mentioned before the Dax can be quite macho with around 140pt gain already this week it's scored more points than the Dow !!!! Consequently, don't rule out a stab at the highs of 6500 this week. Sure it's unlikely ..........over 4% above Friday's close but....... stranger things have happened.

Again for me the percentage trade is to seek shorts on the inevitable burnout - the only bit that's uncertain is when or what price :cheesy:

Longs are again risky IMO if you missed the pullback to 6287 today (or the lows on Friday) ........ We are now well on the way to 200pts above the lows of 6195ish and given the potential for a 200+ sell off ...plus potential rez at 6400-430 I have to be cautious. I've mentioned we could try and test the highs but I know that I've missed the boat (or the bus whichever you fancy) so ....... I remain on the sidelines......... cursing my luck about missing today's pullback.

No clever (?) comments about potential value plays on the dax this time around............. that magic seems to have deserted me ......... temporarily I hope

Happy Trading
Hook Shot


Still Feeling my way in the dark ............

 

[catracho]

supports and resistance on DAX today...key areas for upside to continue 6380-6400 need to be broken, any signs of faltering may be a good short (near term)...

 

[Hook Shot]

supports and resistance on DAX today...key areas for upside to continue 6380-6400 need to be broken, any signs of faltering may be a good short (near term)...

Spot on Catracho............. we're at a very critical point ......the dax has to go up now or hold in ...else we could get another triple digit slide........

 

[rustic1]

Did we hit a critical level today I am seeing a lower high?

 

[catracho]

could be, tho we need to see tomorrows trading - which will be volatile once with the Non farm payrolls out in US...

 

[daxdaytrader]

Once again the plan, long above 85, was spot on but somehow the chance seemed to slip away. A short period of entropy prior to the move was offputting, but then the double dragonfly did give the game away.

Tomorrow, will look for more support for upside again.

 

[Hook Shot]

Just a quickie - 6200-6600 move ............ means a 100pts down move could be next week!

6609 is 3x closing low of bear market
6649 is 75% of the bear market, 50% measured move of recent slider.
6800 is measured move from 6500-200 recent slider
6864 is 78.6% of bear market

More later perhaps