Hook Shot said
With a close at 6412 a test of the lows is a move of 45pts but already the price has slid to 6375 after hours - taking us within 8pts of Friday's low. So the re-short opportunity has evaporated for now and again I look for a rally off last weeks lows ......... pre-trade or intraday and after that I will hopefully get a better idea of what's going on.
Despite the dodgy price close on Dx futures Friday.........we again got that test of the lows in the Asian sesh and we picked up cash for 6375 and as dax opened officially we could have dumped it for 402 !!!!
That's the dream trade I was ranting about ....... it came off as the market did what I thought it would.........
Good when it comes to plan. Now, I'm quitting predictions..... it can only get worse from here :cheesy:
Where now for the Dax.......... who knows ? Hee Hee but 6425/30, 6450, 6470 are obvious levels on the upside and of course 6360-67 on the downside.
Have a fantastic trading day.
With a close at 6412 a test of the lows is a move of 45pts but already the price has slid to 6375 after hours - taking us within 8pts of Friday's low. So the re-short opportunity has evaporated for now and again I look for a rally off last weeks lows ......... pre-trade or intraday and after that I will hopefully get a better idea of what's going on.
Despite the dodgy price close on Dx futures Friday.........we again got that test of the lows in the Asian sesh and we picked up cash for 6375 and as dax opened officially we could have dumped it for 402 !!!!
That's the dream trade I was ranting about ....... it came off as the market did what I thought it would.........
Good when it comes to plan. Now, I'm quitting predictions..... it can only get worse from here :cheesy:
Where now for the Dax.......... who knows ? Hee Hee but 6425/30, 6450, 6470 are obvious levels on the upside and of course 6360-67 on the downside.
Have a fantastic trading day.
hornblower
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Hook Shot said:
thanks for your summing up ,
I have traded the dax over the last few week
and done ok
No probs Hornblower.......
We have breakdown - but not that convincing yet and as I said previously bits of suppt down to 6300 ... there may be other moving averages etc but I haven't checked.
Breakdown is not yet convincing - Dow is still okay i.e above friday's lows - I'm not saying direct correlation but something to bear in mind.
6425/30 capped the rally which was nice.........but it was pretty obvious rez. Can't see 6300 today so if you're late on the shorts be careful... you wouldn't be alone England batsmen were late on a few SHOTS Fintoff for one!
We have breakdown - but not that convincing yet and as I said previously bits of suppt down to 6300 ... there may be other moving averages etc but I haven't checked.
Breakdown is not yet convincing - Dow is still okay i.e above friday's lows - I'm not saying direct correlation but something to bear in mind.
6425/30 capped the rally which was nice.........but it was pretty obvious rez. Can't see 6300 today so if you're late on the shorts be careful... you wouldn't be alone England batsmen were late on a few SHOTS Fintoff for one!
Here's an anorak quote for you .......... in the 18wks since the july lows the weekly lows have been broken only 4 times.... the largest break has been was 26pts......
Last weeks low was 6367 and minus 26 gives 6341! Of course could be a mindless stat!
Hook Stat
Last weeks low was 6367 and minus 26 gives 6341! Of course could be a mindless stat!
Hook Stat
FetteredChinos
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Stat.
im liking your work there Hooks,
ive joined the Dax party with a long on the march futures @ 6417, and yes i do plan on holding it for almost all that time!
fc
im liking your work there Hooks,
ive joined the Dax party with a long on the march futures @ 6417, and yes i do plan on holding it for almost all that time!
fc
firewalker99
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down all the way!
So, how many of you managed to get the most out of today?
I saw an nice short opportunity around 6430 and looking at the chart now I should have stayed in whole day! What a downmove... support after support just fell and broke like it's nothing...
So, how many of you managed to get the most out of today?
I saw an nice short opportunity around 6430 and looking at the chart now I should have stayed in whole day! What a downmove... support after support just fell and broke like it's nothing...
Intresting Day..
We eventually got the break of support at 6366/67 and the market fell pretty hard closing below 6300 for a triple digit fall.
This could be a significant turning point especially when considered in the context of Wall Street's weak performamce.
I had a little trouble today.......trying to be too clever. I bagged the free trade by buying Dax at discount pre-trade and selling it close to the day's high - before Noon. It hovered in the range of 415/20 for a while then started selling off........ I was slow off the mark and by the time I got it together the market was on it's way to 6366 and the short opp had vanished (for me anyway) - I hate chasing shorts ....
On break of sppt it fell then gave me a chance with a bounce to kiss 6360 area before falling away for the rest of the day in a jagged fashion. I got the second bite of the cherry!
Anyway, what about tomorrow ?
We hit my second sppt zone at 6300 and pierced it by close. There is meant to be support here so I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to rally off 6300. I'm not saying it will happen though - as Dax is trading at 6265ish after hours.
If it really decides to break 6300 then as everyone says there isn't much support until 6200 - key swing low in November. But being a oddball I'm splitting the 6300-6200 space into 4 and will look for bounces every 25pts. Why ? Why not ?
Seriously, for the June rally the 25% retrace is about 6185 and for the July leg of the move the 25% level is around 6216.
The Dax has had two shocking/fantastic days depending on your perspective and to get a 3rd big day would be interesting indeed. Hard to see Dx regain 6366 tomorrow and this should be key resistance from here on in. Having said that I said 6300 would be hard to see and look what happened.
In Summary - resistance is clear at 6366/67 area....... and key support is 6200+/-15pts.
Beyond 6366ish will be the 6420/25 area but you don't need me to tell you that...
Be careful out there and stay away from the Polonium....... if there is any such thing :!:
Hook Shot
We eventually got the break of support at 6366/67 and the market fell pretty hard closing below 6300 for a triple digit fall.
This could be a significant turning point especially when considered in the context of Wall Street's weak performamce.
I had a little trouble today.......trying to be too clever. I bagged the free trade by buying Dax at discount pre-trade and selling it close to the day's high - before Noon. It hovered in the range of 415/20 for a while then started selling off........ I was slow off the mark and by the time I got it together the market was on it's way to 6366 and the short opp had vanished (for me anyway) - I hate chasing shorts ....
On break of sppt it fell then gave me a chance with a bounce to kiss 6360 area before falling away for the rest of the day in a jagged fashion. I got the second bite of the cherry!
Anyway, what about tomorrow ?
We hit my second sppt zone at 6300 and pierced it by close. There is meant to be support here so I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to rally off 6300. I'm not saying it will happen though - as Dax is trading at 6265ish after hours.
If it really decides to break 6300 then as everyone says there isn't much support until 6200 - key swing low in November. But being a oddball I'm splitting the 6300-6200 space into 4 and will look for bounces every 25pts. Why ? Why not ?
Seriously, for the June rally the 25% retrace is about 6185 and for the July leg of the move the 25% level is around 6216.
The Dax has had two shocking/fantastic days depending on your perspective and to get a 3rd big day would be interesting indeed. Hard to see Dx regain 6366 tomorrow and this should be key resistance from here on in. Having said that I said 6300 would be hard to see and look what happened.
In Summary - resistance is clear at 6366/67 area....... and key support is 6200+/-15pts.
Beyond 6366ish will be the 6420/25 area but you don't need me to tell you that...
Be careful out there and stay away from the Polonium....... if there is any such thing :!:
Hook Shot
daxdaytrader
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Last weeks news took us lower until we clunked the bottom of the uptrend. Not a well handled day for me though.
A day or 2 of dojis could set the scene for some bargain buys, if it doesn't just reverse quickly anyway. If we push a lot lower, then trend may be at risk.
Looks like we may be in a good position soon, to buy call options.
A day or 2 of dojis could set the scene for some bargain buys, if it doesn't just reverse quickly anyway. If we push a lot lower, then trend may be at risk.
Looks like we may be in a good position soon, to buy call options.
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daxdaytrader said:Last weeks news took us lower until we clunked the bottom of the uptrend. Not a well handled day for me though.
A day or 2 of dojis could set the scene for some bargain buys, if it doesn't just reverse quickly anyway. If we push a lot lower, then trend may be at risk.
Looks like we may be in a good position soon, to buy call options.
Great call...daxdaytrader..... Do COME BACK since as you can see my analysis is pretty basic!
splitting 6300/6200 into 4 caught the low though which was funny!
HS
firewalker99
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Basic trendlines and S/R would have also helped you staying in a trade if you decided to short. If you were looking to go long on the other hand, you would have got burnt... Notice how each time a support line is broken is never reaches above the line anymore. If you shorted the break and placed a stop a little bit above the line, you could have stayed in till the end and maximised your profits.
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Good example Firewalker......
Looking at the cash - we seem to have stalled so far at the 25% retracement of this downmove which if it persists is not good. But even strength this afternoon will take it towards 340/50 rez and the dreaded 366/7.
Is this 260ish a higher bottom or precursor to break of the lows ? Silly question but I'm in that sort of mood - Teehee
HS
Looking at the cash - we seem to have stalled so far at the 25% retracement of this downmove which if it persists is not good. But even strength this afternoon will take it towards 340/50 rez and the dreaded 366/7.
Is this 260ish a higher bottom or precursor to break of the lows ? Silly question but I'm in that sort of mood - Teehee
HS
daxdaytrader
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Hook Shot said:
Last couple of times we saw vol like last 2 days, on low side of trend, was 5400 and 5800, and look what happened (on my chart) - very strong rallies.
