David Knight -Journal

[David Knight]

Long 2497

Closed@ 2500 +3

Runnin+28

 

[David Knight]

The last 2 posts merely add more personal anecdotal evidence to demonstrate that making money on the long side is easier than the short side, even when price is in a down trend.

Should the market pull back after the Fed I'll no doubt have a few more opprtunities to show how being a dumb bull is preferable to being a smart bear..

 

[David Knight]

Everybody wants to buy in that gap.

1- It won't get there today 80%

2- It will overun a few points. 20%

Note- the odds could change ..

 

[David Knight]

Buying @ 2495

Target 2502

 

[David Knight]

Buying @ 2495

Target 2502

Took some heat on this trade early on, but keeping an eye on ADV/DECL it did not suggest the market would get progressively weaker despite the headline (top left)

Will hold/add if req

 

[David Knight]

Buying @ 2495

Target 2502

Closed@2500 +5

Running +33

Order to buy @2490

I think it's likely to retrace before hitting my target

 

[David Knight]

Short 2502

Stop 2504

Target 2495

Still interested in buying 2490

 

[David Knight]

Short 2502

Stop 2504

Target 2495

Still interested in buying 2490

Looks like I missed my target by 1 tick

Covered@ 2497 +5

Running +38

 

[David Knight]

Trading Plan

Really simple. I want cheaper prices or I'm not interested. Call me a diva. Call me old fashioned. Call me obstinate. Call me a chartist. Anything. I don't care, I want cheaper prices and maybe blue smarties in the green room.

2497 to start, hold the side order for now.

 

[David Knight]

LONG 2497

Target 2503:innocent:


Call me long sighted... call me lucky I don't care. Now, about those smarties...

 

[David Knight]

LONG 2497

Target 2503:innocent:


Call me long sighted... call me lucky I don't care. Now, about those smarties...

The way I see it now is that SPX high is in BUT Dow high could get taken out...

If that is correct 2503 should be easily achieved.

However there should always be a plan B. That would mean (for me) adding lower, then lowering todays target.

Option 3 is I get to eat humble pie (hold the smarties)

Let me tell you, as an expert in humble pie, it does not taste as bad as what you fear. In fact your attitude has a bearing on the taste/long term benefits

But, given the choice...I prefer smarties...just sayin'

 

[David Knight]

LONG 2497

Target 2503:innocent:


Call me long sighted... call me lucky I don't care. Now, about those smarties...

Target hit +6
Running + 44

Looking to short 2505

 

[David Knight]

Short 2506
Target 2501
Stop 1pt above high

Moved so quick I got a better market order entry than if I had set a sell order..

Luck is a factor in trading. They just don't talk about that in books..

 

[David Knight]

Short 2506
Target 2501
Stop 1pt above high

Moved so quick I got a better market order entry than if I had set a sell order..

Luck is a factor in trading. They just don't talk about that in books..

COVERED 2509 - 3

Running +41

Not so lucky after all..

 

[David Knight]

That was a suprising move.
Don't want to short here would rather buy 2501

Actually, I do want to short, just not going to. When something unusual happens, don't act all usual...just sayin'

 

[Dowser]

Any idea of the fundamentals behind the move David?

 

[David Knight]

Any idea of the fundamentals behind the move David?

Deliberately clueless I'm afraid. Well.not really afraid as in, scared, more as in 'beyond hope'

FOMC day I don't ignore, that's about it.

 

[David Knight]

Toolbox Talk

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=t...1.1.64.psy-ab..0.5.533...0i67k1.0.gX18bpkUrfg


In reviewing that losing trade (Short 2406) of 3 points which halved my daily profit -

1- Short trades are always more difficult
2- This was the 2nd short in the same day...which is pushing it.
3-Time of day - I prefer to avoid the middle of the day (and the middle of the trading range)

my entry wasn't middle of range but was nearer middle of day

Hence the charts. with comments below.

As well as the preferred trading times and price locations I also want to mention hoilding times and stops/targets

I was stopped out of a trade I 80-% 'knew/know' will hit the target of 2501 , which is also where I want to buy. (futures are trading near that cash equiv level now)

Since i thought that the early high would hold and the Dow would exceed it's high I set a stop 1 point above which would prove I was wrong (which happened)

Interestingly it was actually the Dow high which held and not SPX. See chart 4

Also, consider that we saw an extrordinarily quick and surprising move designed to shake out the weak hands

In those circumstances I prefer to take the hit knowing that my trading plan had unwittingly left me on the side of those weak hands. You really have to lose the ego in this business or you will not survive.

Finally, on this trade
Note on chart 4 the comment about market conditions which are yet another reason to not go with insinct regarding 2501 but rather, obey the stop set earlier.

Market conditions affect holding times.Ideally want an early buy/short and a grind in one direction all day. Just not getting much of that at the moment, but conditions will change.


Looking to buy 2501.

 

[David Knight]

Long 2502

Target 2507

Will add lower

 

[David Knight]

Long 2502

Target 2507

Will add lower

Sold 2505 +3 grabbed back from yesterday
Running +44

Will get back in @2502 for that target