The BENCHMARK

[David Knight]

Some time ago I said I would come back with another journal. So…


What is ‘The Benchmark’?

What is it designed to do?


The simple answer is-


A price that is a point of reference compared to where the market last closed…


And-


.. In order to make trading decisions based on relative market performance.


The more complex answer will probably reveal itself as the journal develops, with the caveat that-


Trading is only as complex as you make it.


The Plan


My first journal was too demanding on my time and I don’t want that to happen again. It also affected my trading sometimes.


So I’ll be posting at the weekend and occasionally during the week.


Another aspect of my last journal was that it sometimes showed unrelated material to the trades being taken.. This one is going to be more focused.


Posting less often will hopefully deal with these issues.
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[David Knight]

I'm LONG here @2701 cash

(Using cash for analysis but trading futures contract as per first journal)


The bulls will try to close this above 2701. That's the basis for my trade.

If I'm wrong it depends how wrong as to what I do about it.

Will post a chart after the close.

EDIT
Moving stop to B/E
Reason is because I don't see a buy signal in the DOW price and II'd like Both SPX/DOW prices showing the same message.

It's a weak day and there's still gaps below for another day.

I'd prefer to hold to close but it is what it is. Stop might not get hit, we'll see..

EDIT

Out here @ 2719 for quick 18 points

When the move is that quick it's probably best to take profit rather than hold in the current market conditions.

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[David Knight]

I was doing so many things at the same time during today's trade that my perception of time was somewhat different to reality...(!) It seemed a much shorter time span between entry/exit than it actually was.


I also mis remembered the 50% line being 2701 when in fact it is 2702.

Always before the session begins I have this feeling of dread that I won't be able to trade anymore. That somehow I'll forget how to do it.It's like a kind of stage fright.


I think that the root of that fear is that I allow for a fair amount of discretion to influence my thought process. So there's always a tension at the back of my mind.



One part of me would feel happier with cast iron rules and the other side fears the lack of freedom that rules impose.


I constantly have to remind myself that


1-I'm as near to a comfort zone as I can probably get


2-Losses are contollable


-

 

[David Knight]

I did not take the short at 2728. I believe that could be the high today. Will try to find the low later on. Don't envisage yesterday's low getting taken out...2708 would be about right.

Remember 2702 is the line..

..2744 if we go higher

 

[David Knight]

SHORT here @ 2730


stop @2734


Based on DOW possible top @ 24,377.17



COVER 2724 +6
Running total +24

 

[David Knight]

Short@ 2724

Looking at the overnight range suggests the 2702 level might get tested during cash session and that yesterdays high is the selling area..

 

[David Knight]

ADD Short @2744

Ave 2734

 

[David Knight]

Cover @30

 

[David Knight]

2744 line was reliable. Was counting on that..but it was uncomfortable.



I had to keep telling myself that sell the rallies works until it doesn't. Today was not the end of this decline.


A trader with more balls would have held even longer aiming for the opening gap. But I am dealing with some very stressful personal issues the last 2 days and actually had a temper tantrum in the middle of this trade looking for 45 minutes for a fkn birth certificate.


So..



It's kinda funny now though (!)

Running total is now +28 points on 3 trades - 1 long/2 shorts.

 

[David Knight]

It's just occurred to me that I should figure out the current scenario...


and plan the next trade.


So I think that both the DOW and SPX have put in both their daily High/ Low and that they will now trade within the current range.



So obviously I will short the current rally attempt.




Order to SHORT 2741 STOP above the high..(2746.09) ...2747. Target near close..whatever.


Might not get filled.

 

[David Knight]

It's just occurred to me that I should figure out the current scenario...


and plan the next trade.


So I think that both the DOW and SPX have put in both their daily High/ Low and that they will now trade within the current range.



So obviously I will short the current rally attempt.




Order to SHORT 2741 STOP above the high..(2746.09) ...2747. Target near close..whatever.


Might not get filled.

I'm my own worst enemy.. We knew 2740 was more likely didn't we?


Cancel order

 

[David Knight]

OK so what's my next trade?


Come on ...come on... I can't be expected to think of everything...


Order to BUY @2711 STOP 2709 Target EOD

Order GFD only.. have to go and see a man about a dog ... will let this play out by itself...back b4 the close.

 

[David Knight]

The low is in..? (2701.19)


Technically that would be perfect 2746-02)


Would be a a note of caution against the guru quote 'when you see weakness just keep selling..'


-2 on my trade


Running total +26 pts on 4 trades


I dont like to make too many decisions/trades in a day


All things considered I got off light with +2 pts today...pathetic.

 

[David Knight]

Analysis for the week ending 29/06/2018

 

[David Knight]

Long 2701

Stop 2697 just under the present low

Buying near the bottom of current range. (current range until it isn't)

EDIT: Move stop to B/E

EDIT OUT 2710 +9

Running total +35pts on 5trades

CHART:

 

[David Knight]

long 2704

same stop (2697)

EDIT: SOLD 2710 +6

Running total +41 0n 6 trades

CHARTS:

 

[David Knight]

Looking for an opportunity to suggest itself.

If you have followed my trading in the past you'll know that there are certain times I prefer to get in and out. Is the low in first and early today?

I'd say the odds favour the low being in. However, I view the current context as neutral/bearish as noted in my weekend analysis

That is why I wasn't interested in attempting to hold my longs for too much time and not the entire session (which is what I want to do in a bullish market)

I 'm happy with the strategy I employed today- Buy a possible low made first, take profits early if possible due to context.

 

[David Knight]

Possible the high is in @2717


Certainly a lot of sellers believe SPX will close below Fri cls 2718


If we can get back there those sellers could get taken out. In that case mid point @2723 is next level to watch.


So.. I figure I've either missed a good short @2717 (Though I think it will stay in current range if 17 is the high) or a less risky short is around 2723..

Or stay out altogether rather than risk giving the market some tax on my current profit..

Edit I'm having to weigh this up too much in my mind and that is a red flag for me. But there's a possible long around here 2704/5 back to around 2715/17.

I'm letting it go ... being selective today

 

[David Knight]

Order to SHORT 2714


STOP 2718


Target EOD

 

[David Knight]

Order to SHORT 2714


STOP 2718


Target EOD

Filled

COVERED -4

Running total +37 on 7 trades