David Knight -Journal

David Knight

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Aug 20, 2017
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#18
Pre Market

The market has stayed in a range trapped between gaps above and below.

The context that I outlined so far is continuing. There is uncertainty as to which gap fills come first. But My read is that there is further downside to come. The question is when.

It could easily stay in this range or we could drift higher today and fill the nearest gap at 2452.5

My Plan
I'm still prepared to add until I'm obviously wrong. But I will rotate contracts until I see real commitment
 

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David Knight

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Aug 20, 2017
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#21
I don't expect to get another opportunity to short for some time, if at all today. Markets tend to drop faster than they climb.

Often see the high/low in early trading and at end of day. If we were in a clear up trend I would buy the dip early and sell end of day or early next day. if possible.

But since I believe the market is headed lower I'm reluctant to buy, even though as I said before I don't really like going short.

It's much easier to be a dumb bull than it is to be a clever bear.

This is the reason this journal appears to be sluggish. This is my least favourite market condition.

My Plan
Let the market move to the next zone before entering. Ideally we would drift up and stay in the 40-50 range before a big leg down next week.

So, looking to short unless there's a reason to change my view.

In General

It's early days in this journal. I don't play games. I'll be running this journal for a while and if you stick around you'll find some value somewhere.;)

Suggestion: When someone outlines the way the'll run a journal read what is actually written. It's hard not to be cynical, I know..just sayin'

 

David Knight

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Aug 20, 2017
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#23
The market is sitting exactly where i got out though it has been down as far as 2436 around the overnight low. Going out was a good decision.

Adv/Dcl vol favours the bulls So at this point I say the low holds today and there's no change in view.

It doesn't matter because I already made my play today so if we carry on drifting even lower today it wasn't in my plan. to hold all day.





 

David Knight

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Aug 20, 2017
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#28
Not much point posting calls without any explanation because then we don't learn much. So..

I still see the market going lower which is why I haven't taken any long trades. It's always harder going short...it just is, that in itself should tell you something.

Ideally I would like to find a good short location and hold all the way down. But as I keep saying, this current phase in the cycle doesn't allow you to easily do that.

I just scrapped most of my post. I didn't come here to write a book.

Those who are following know my basic plan. I just used my instinct today turn a 7pt loss into a 3pt gain.

Cynics might say I got lucky. It would be a fair comment actually. However, I would have dealt with it (one way or another) had things got more difficult.

Friday is not the ideal day to be in a trade that is stuck in the range. I'll only trade again today if I see a good one.






 

David Knight

Active member
Aug 20, 2017
401
99
38
#29
Weekend

I've put the word 'symmetry' on the chart. I wouldn't advise anyone to go and start looking for it everywhere, hoping to base a trading system on it. You'll end up knowing less than when you started. (and yes, I sound like a man who has been there.)

Because these days it could easily end up with you living in a parallel universe surrounded by berenstein bears. (I'll bet you didn't know that huh?)

And the resulting pain and suffering could easily turn you from a fat, middle aged balding middle class guy into a trading forum troll- a situation in which there is very little hope of returning to adulthood.

It's Incredible what uncertainty about the future can do to the human psyche.

And Now Back To the Analysis

I'm only comparing the rallies to declines to decide who is in control of the market. But it only tells you so much...

All it tells me is what I should see happening if my analysis is correct OR what I should see if I'm wrong.

The 'symmetry' almost reiterates the point I keep referring to. And that is that this part of the cycle is deceptive and harder to trade than a market that is clearly headed in a direction for some time.

In the shorter time frame the declines are larger. But in the longer time frame we have 2 similar declines 79/74 points.

So there is a case to say the correction is over. Or to put it another way, if it turned out that the correction was over, that symmetry would look predictive wouldn't it?

Conclusion

Let's go back to the point where we were 'unconfused' We were in a clear rally mode. Then there was a change of behaviour.

2454 zone should have held support but it is now resistance (imo) This weeks high is (enter stsge left)......2454.7

So the only possible conclusion is that the market must not close above 2454 or my analysis is wrong and I'll look like a T**t.:)

Most of the week (2nd chart) the market traded with a gap below. You can imagine all the shorts trying to close that gap but never came close. ...
 

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#30
I've put the word 'symmetry' on the chart. I wouldn't advise anyone to go and start looking for it everywhere, hoping to base a trading system on it. You'll end up knowing less than when you started. (and yes, I sound like a man who has been there.)

Because these days it could easily end up with you living in a parallel universe surrounded by berenstein bears. (I'll bet you didn't know that huh?)

And the resulting pain and suffering could easily turn you from a fat, middle aged balding middle class guy into a trading forum troll- a situation in which there is very little hope of returning to adulthood.

It's Incredible what uncertainty about the future can do to the human psyche.

And Now Back To the Analysis

I'm only comparing the rallies to declines to decide who is in control of the market. But it only tells you so much...

All it tells me is what I should see happening if my analysis is correct OR what I should see if I'm wrong.

The 'symmetry' almost reiterates the point I keep referring to. And that is that this part of the cycle is deceptive and harder to trade than a market that is clearly headed in a direction for some time.

In the shorter time frame the declines are larger. But in the longer time frame we have 2 similar declines 79/74 points.

So there is a case to say the correction is over. Or to put it another way, if it turned out that the correction was over, that symmetry would look predictive wouldn't it?

Conclusion

Let's go back to the point where we were 'unconfused' We were in a clear rally mode. Then there was a change of behaviour.

2454 zone should have held support but it is now resistance (imo) This weeks high is (enter stsge left)......2454.7

So the only possible conclusion is that the market must not close above 2454 or my analysis is wrong and I'll look like a T**t.:)

Most of the week (2nd chart) the market traded with a gap below. You can imagine all the shorts trying to close that gap but never came close. ...
Indices/ shares.

Down gaps always close, with the proviso that the very last one might not.:)

Up gaps may or may not close. In a raging bull market, prices could run for years or decades without ever looking back.

https://www.peterlbrandt.com/the-history-of-unfilled-gaps-in-the-u-s-stock-indexes/