Dave's Forex trading journal

[noviceuk]

Tried out trading the close of gaps that open up Sunday evening - assumption behind the strategy is that if there is a reasonable gap between Friday evening close and Sunday evening open then the currency pair will try to close it before reestablishing any trend. Picked up 30 pips on Eur, Cable and AUD/USD - only looking for 10 pips profit target, and putting on a small stake at the moment, but will increase it next week as it seems to work and is easy to understand...

Early morning Cable - EA's both went slightly in to profit before turning and ending up as a loss..c'est la vie... may have to backtest moving SL to BE once in profit

Took one live trade - EurUSD - as attached... fitted in with the trading plan in that:
Was trading below MA on higher timeframes (day and 4hr)
Had moved below pivot line, and took a sell on move down past previous candle close
Stop loss could be placed behind Pivot point and risk still around 2%
Reasonable (40 pips) RR slightly higher than 1:1 before it would near S1 levels

After the trade made some profit I took 1/3rd off and moved the stop loss - this would normally be to 1/2 way between initial stop and EP but it was moving downwards well enough to move to BE. Took the remainder off when it appeared to have bottomed, tested it a few times and was starting to move back up - made about 1% so enough for the day and a good start to the week with the small profit from the gap trades

Long term - Placed limit sell orders on EUR/USD, GBP/USD

 

[noviceuk]

EA account: currently trading Kangaroo, FMT, FNT - down about 6% thanks to a blowout on Kangaroo.. but recovering so hopefully a good week will see it back in the black

Short term trading - Back slightly above break even, so again a few decent days will see this in the black for the month - this has been a combination of picking trades according to my strategy as well as some from AFFX that fit in with whatever trend I am seeing

Longer term - not going too well...still up by about 10% over the last 3 months but taken a number of drawdowns, market isn't trending too well at the moment which makes these type of longer term trades more difficult, I suspect

Homework for the next few weeks - complete a trading strategy/plan for longer term trades that incorporates Lindencourt and snapback, investigate the day trade system of Lindencourt as this seems to incorporate a lot of the systems I like - 3 ducks, Pivot points, RSI/MACD

 

[noviceuk]

Recap:

Long term trades - stopped out on a few trades means that I am only up about 10% on the demo account - expected USDCHF to continue downwards but it reversed before doing so...getting fed up of CMC demo platform as too unreliable so have set up an MT4 demo account with charts set up for Lindencourt daily strategy. Took the first trade on that for eurUSD today which caught a huge drop (300 pips).. why doesn't that happen on live accounts ..).. also shorts on USDCHF and GBPJPY.

Daily trading - combination of AFFX trades and my existing strategy has brought the account back up from a loss to BE, so hopefully can be in profit before I go on holiday at the end of next week

EA's - great run on early morning Cable trades recently has brought that account up from BE as well (after that horrible drawdown from Kangaroo), so again more of the same can hopefully leave the account in profit again by next week. Loaded another EA - steadywinner - this gets good reviews and they offer a freebie that trades very small amounts so easy to try out. Only one trade to date that stopped at BE, so will monitor for 2 months when I get back.

Just as a reminder - attached charts show my typical daily trading strategy (ex AFFX) - the 4 hour chart on EURJPY shows that it has clearly broken down from a recent traing zone that it had been in for some time, so looking only for shorts.
The 15 minute chart shows a break below previous support levels, S1 was a bit close so aiming for mid-point to S2 PT, and SL just above PP. Sold out for +43 pips but as you can see could have held on for more. If I was trading 2% I'd have split the trade in three, and let the last third run with BE SL, but keeping the trade % down until I at least recover from drawdown (which I've now done, so all going well will go back to 2% and splitting the trade after the break)

 

[noviceuk]

EA -automated trading... account still trending upwards - managed to recover from the high Kangaroo drawdown to be about 6% in profit - early morning Cable trades primarily, be great to end up 10% for the month by the end of the week.. and hopefully the AFFX EA will be ready to be added soon after I return from holiday..SP not taking any trades at the moment..

Intra-day trading: Account now at BE, lots of downward trends to capitalise on so again hopefully if this continues for the rest of the week this account will be in profit for the month. Trades a mix of AFFX, my strategy (as above) and also looking at daily/4hr trends and Lindencourt 15 minute charts - on EurUSD/EURJPY and Cable. Need to consolidate these in to a 'lather/rinse/repeat' strategy, as they all share a lot in common

Longer term trading: Started trying Lindencourt daily strategy on a demo MT4 account - clearly the % stakes are messed up as a unit of 1 appears to be highly leveraged, so can't take too much notice of the amounts won/lost as yet until I fix this - but 1 out of 5 trades stopped out, 1 hit PL and 3 are still running.. Snapback FX going ok..acct still up nearly 10% and have two trades on - NZD/USD buy and USDCHF sell. Finally have one last actual live trade which is short Eur/USD - currently around +100 - I will try to run this trade until LB-Daily signals a retrace

 

[market_bull]

Interesting trade journal. I've enjoyed looking at it and reading from it!

 

[noviceuk]

Now closing up shop until August:

EA's - Kangaroo had another big drawdown -which means account is a few % down again - so it has been consigned to the dustbin, and will replace with AFFX EA when it's available. Am also going to try out a few others if I can find free/demo/trial ones with good reputations, will run on the demo account for 2-3 months to monitor results

Intra-day trading - account now above BE, so confident that the strategy is working, will go back to 2% stakes when I get back

Long term - Steady progress on the Lindencourt-daily and Snapback strategies - will look to see how I can perhaps combine to a single inter-day trading plan when I get back- and look for another month or so of steady winnings before selecting a live account to trade it.

Current pot: £15.5k - aiming for 17k by end of August

Overall disappointing end to the last few weeks trading, without the last drawdown on the EA I would have made the 10% profit target for the month, Kangaroo did put in steady 1-2% wins, but when it can wipe out 6-8 weeks of profitable wins with one lost trade the profit/loss ratio just doesn't stack up.

 

[tradeviking]

Recap for the end of the week:
EA's - Almost recovered from the drawdown - hopefully next week will be the same so that I can show a profit of some level on the automated trading for the month. Have until the end of the month on AFFX trial, and will implement the EA for this at some point in the future to have a portfolio running on autopilot (but will switch them off mid-July when I go on holiday for 2 weeks as this is traditionally a bad time to trade). Currently running FMT, FNT and Kangaroo

Short term (scalp/day).. slightly down here...but again recovering and have been sticking to the plan so hopefully this is just a 'part of business' drawdown which can also be recovered from so that I can show a profit for the month...

Long term (4hr) EOD/early morning setups.. The trend following system kind of blew up when the market stopped trending (surprise)... clearly I need a number of strategies that between them can cope with changing market conditions - so a trading plan that will hopefully be some form of combination of looking for setups according to Snapback-FX (which I have been a trial participant for), NNT and the Lindencourt strategies - so aim over the next4 weeks before holiday is to have a tested trading plan to implement live when I get back (this with the exception of some NNT trades has been on a demo account)

Will get back to posting planned trades and charts with results next week time permitting...

Any intial thoughts on SnapbackFX ? I've been getting spammed about it from Agora, at £97 much cheaper than their other systems, so somewhat interested.

 

[noviceuk]

First real trading day for a while... August being a month when a lot of traders are out means the markets can be a bit more erratic, so time to be cautious....

EA's - only ones running are FMT and FNT, both of which have been cut down to trade < 1% risk - both came in for a win this morning - and 'Steadywinner' which is running the demo version with a very low risk/reward setup - this has traded twice in the last week both for a profit, so will leave this running for August like this and if it handles this month well will buy the proper version. Looking in to EA's in more detail ther are a lot which seem to get good reviews/track records - Wall Street, Megadroid, Windfall, Combo etc - so need to do do some more homework and look to add 1-2 more on the demo account for August- that and the AFFX one when it is available will hopefully provide a complementary portfolio, whilst avoiding the Grid and Martingale systems (Like Kangaroo) which clearly have a tendency to blow up accounts with 15-20% drawdowns

Long term trading: Nice short trade on AUDUSD last week, stopped out on a EURUSD short and currently short USDCHF - need to be careful of Swiss CB intervention so will move stop to BE asap.
GBP and EU seem very volatile, but have taken a long on EURUSD based on Lindencourt Daily strategy so will see how that works. Looking for further short opps on AUD/NZD against USD and to go short against the Yen as they will probably try to intervene again

Short term - took two trades based on AFFX on Cable and EU, both stopped out so no more trades today... made +65 pips on Gap trading yesterday and a short on FTSE which made up for these so slightly ahead so far..

 

[noviceuk]

EA trading...Have 3 EA's live - Steadywinner, FNT and FMT. SW has only made a few trades and it's about 50:50 at the moment - trading small % for a while until I see how it works out. Gradually recovering from the last major drawdown from Kangaroo (last as I won't be running it again)
Added Forexbody to the demo account as they offer it free for 2 months and gets good reviews - if it performs well over August/Sep then I will buy it and move it to the live account.
Looking to build a complementary portfolio of 5-6 EA's that don't implement Grid/Martingale type strategies and can hopefully create that nice smooth equity upwards curve we are all looking for

Longer term trading: (Snapback/Lindencourt/NNT) - NNT stopped out - EUR seems too volatile at the moment so will leave until it finds direction. LC have a sell on USDJPY. SnapB account - had some nice trades catching the downdraft on AUDUSD and USDCHF but Stopped out of EurUSD, so account is up about 5% this month (shame it's still demo) - hope to have a strategy that I am comfortable with by the end of the month to implement live

Short term trading (AFFX + own system interpretations) - up around 8% so far this month so this is looking pretty good - hopefully I have finally broken out of winning and losing the same few hundred pound each week and start to build this account - still plan to add cash up to 10K once I have increased it from 5-7k (at around 5.5 at the moment)

 

[noviceuk]

EA trading - Forexbody taking a lot of trades - overall it's up for the few days it's been running. Live EA account still approx 10% down thanks to Kangaroo - hopefully will edge it's way back in to profit for the month

Intra-day - account now up 10% for August - - makes up for the EUR trade which stopped out

Longer term - account still up so far this month...probably 50:50 win/loss ratio but as they run a 2:1 risk/reward it can still make a profit

 

[noviceuk]

Start of a new week:
no opportunities for Gap trading yesterday

EA's - small profit on FNT - NT on FMT or Steadyprofits. Forexbody still taking lots of trades, often in opposite directions which is strange to see - There are a couple of trades taken with no visible SL underwater which is a bit disturbing, but it has been steadily dropping cash in to the demo account. If it can survive this erratic market on EU and make a profit it'll be doing well

Intra-day - account started off ok this week - took some profits from a Cable long when it broke above days high and got out of FTSE long at BE as it wasn't showing any clear direction

Long term -not much going on here - LC sold out of trades, need to look at this a bit more carefully but trend trading and August don't go together well. Ditto for Snapback, no orders or active trades, will take another look tomorrow

 

[noviceuk]

EA's both took a short on Cable which worked out so heading in the right direction - FB seems to be struggling a bit with the volatility of the Euro..need to investigate whether I should be running it on a different timechart - it claims to run on most but may well work better on specific ones

Intra-day.. Took a short on EurUSD which stopped out and a long on Cable which came in. However looking at the trades, I left EU running even though it went in to profit a few times and then back - the SL was in the right place as it came near a few times before going through. Cable however I watched and took profit, ending up losing 1.5% on EU and gaining 1% on GU - which then went on to hit my PT..good lesson on what happens if you watch too closely

LT - Long on USDCHF - see attached, reason for trade - from a macro level Swiss Bank is looking to push down the value of the Swissie, it is making HH and HL'S and has been retracing forming a nice trend line. SL is below recent low and initial PT is 2:1, 2% risk

 

[noviceuk]

EA's - both Cable early traders took a sell - I monitored once I got up and decided to sell both when it hit 16500, nice round number for support and slightly above S1. Went on to drop another 8-10 points before retracing (so didn't reach Profit target), so happy that was the right thing to do
Had FB demo running on 1Hr chart but verified that it should be running on M1, so up until today the results don't really count - have amended accordingly so will monitor from here. Waiting for AFFX EA to be available, and will look for an additional EA that can be demo'd for a while and runs on other than EU, so that I can monitor results for 2 at a time

Intra-day - Short on FTSE worked out (AFFX signal), EJ stopped out first time and went to profit 2nd time (both AFFX) - so ahead for the day and will now stop trading

LT - still think with the volatility and light trading volume of August long term trades are difficult, but have a buy on USDCHF still running, moved PT up to 1:1 ratio as this is near a recent area of resistance - currently 0.5%+ (demo)

 

[noviceuk]

EA's - FNT has taken two trades this week - both trades I exited early - the first would have gone on to make profit instead of a loss, today's would have ended up about the same...but leaving the trades to run would have been better - lessons learned..) FB has made 10% on the demo account since it was reset on the correct chart last week which is pretty good, so hopefully this will continue. SW has put in a couple of small profits on the live account. Live account is around BE for the month....

Intra-day - Long on Eur/JPY - it went above the days high and moved up quickly to take profit 10 pips away from R1 - it went on to go above this and has settled around it. Account is still around 10% up for the month

LT - Long on UCHF - it's going nowhere so have moved Profit target to near the top of the trading range and hopefully as it ranges it will end up hitting this, with SL being below the trading range. None of the currency pairs I watch are in a clear trend so expect there to be few of these trades this week but hopefully next week we will start to see some movement again. Account is up about 20% since starting the demo strategy

 

[noviceuk]

EA's - account slightly down for the month (3%) - early morning Cable trades clearly suffer during the slow month, hopefully next week will be back to business as usual . FB has clocked up > 10% in about 10 days of trading - it will happily leave trades open at 3-4% loss, so not sure what the maximum potential drawdown is at the moment - but will leave running on the demo acct for September and make sure the risks are understood but based on current performance looks like a good bet - still waiting for AFFX EA -

Intra-day - account is up 10% for the month - which is the target so happy with that - will add 2k to the account to make it 7.5K, and can adjust trades accordingly

Swing trading - not taken many trades in the last 2 weeks - market is too volatile for this approach I believe in August - but will be back to business as usual next week - acct is currently up up 20% for 3 months. One more month of steady progress and I will open a separate live account for this as well. UCHF went to profit - as it turned out there was clearly some intervention as it shot up 100 pips fairly quickly, so may well have been better off leaving my original 2:1 profit target

 

[noviceuk]

EA's - took FB off demo - although it had clocked up > 10% in 2 weeks, it leaves a number of trades open with no SL .. seems a bit dangerous to me. Have bought Megadroid on 60 day trial so trying this now, see how it gets on. FNT made a profit today, will increase the stakes again now that we are passed August. FMT NT

Intra-day - small profit (10 pips) on FTSE, currencies not showing any clear direction

Swing trading - range bound still on major pairs -

 

[noviceuk]

Frustrating day today .... both Early Cable trades triggered - went in to slight profit before being stopped out.

Intra-day - took a sell on EJ - just taken out by my stop before it went down to Profit target - ditto for USDCAD and EU just stayed in - USDCAD - should have had SL +10 pips above round number - otherwise one of those days

no swing trades at the moment - although AU and NU look promising

 

[noviceuk]

EA's - both early Cable trades triggered and went to profit limit - no intervention ...
Megadroid hasn't taken a trade yet
Will set up another EA on demo basis for September

Intra-day - Cable, Eur main contenders for short trades - took one short trade on EJ - there was only slightly greater than 1:1 potential as it was getting close to previous lows - trade was on for most of the day up until now - went in to profit, reversed in to loss and finally came good - made up for disappointing gap trades yesterday evening...

LT started looking at these again this week - short in USDCHF according to Lindencourt strategy taken at 7885 taken today

 

[noviceuk]

EA's - FMT Cable took a sell and stopped out
Megadroid took its first trade +0.5%

Intra-day - spectacular moves in the market thanks to the Swiss but unfortunately not in my favour, so am now about 2% down on this account so far

LT - sold USDCHF at a profit - now looking for more trends once the market settles down after today's intervention

 

[noviceuk]

No posts for a while..mainly because the accounts heading the wrong way and not quite sure whether it was a discipline problem - looking at it I think I was taking too many trades..anyway..

EA's MD now has two trades (both winners ) so seems to be panning out as expected at 1 trade per week. Windfall has only taken one trade. Early morning trades just under breakeven.. account is about 1% down for the month

Intra-day .. this is where my discipline seems to have failed - had a couple of trades that went badly wrong before I managed to put a SL on, then got in to trading based on hope vs reality and let one go 5% down (naturally it then turned round and headed my way), and had a string of trades go against me. So account was well down, now is about 6% in the red

LT - sold GBPCAD again - currently up so have moved stop to BE and hope it goes to profit target - see attached chart