Dave's Forex trading journal

[The Artist]

Hey,
I admit I browsed through quickly so I might have missed it but do you have a completely discretionary approach to every trade or do you have a set of rules which defines your entry and exit points?
I am asking because in case the latter is true rather than the former, you could backtest your strategy historically and generate some statistics which would help you to not trade in the dark and wonder whether your losses are systemic or exogenous.
Good luck in any case!

 

[noviceuk]

Early morning Cable buy was triggered - placed the usual three trades, 30 pip stop and different profit limits - first 20, then 30 - I then move the stop on the last to BE and let it run with a trailing 30 pip stop. Unfortunately I got stopped out before Cable went on to go higher, but that's the way it goes..

The NZDUSD trade above triggered and went to the profit limit - which ended up just over 4% win for a 2% risk - shame it's in a demo account...

Haven't seen a good setup since so no other trades - EUR/USD has moved to recent highs - but no longer fits in to my trading rules as it has already moved by majority of ATR.

To recap my current live strategy then:

Early morning Cable trade based on Net-trap derivative from the forum here (thanks guys)
I will then look for a pair to trade by looking at the 4 hr window for a pair that has broken out of a recent congestion area - see EurUSD chart attached. The boxes represent where the EUR/USD has been trading within a range for at least 6 candles - set by the first candle which is engulfing - i.e all subsequent candles have opened and closed within the H/L of the starting candle. This is adapted from Phil Newton's trading strategy - highly recommended live trading room...

The arrows represent where a buy/sell trade potential has been triggered

Entry: I will then look for a pair to trade in the 5 minute window, which is currently based on the ATM-FX trade setup. I look for trades that are near to, and the right side of, the pivot point. Stop will ideally be set at the H/L of the day, or 10 points away from PP/R/Sx

Profit target: This will be 10 pips in front of the nearest support/resistance area as marked by Sx or Rx on the chart. Will only take the trade if there is at least 1:1 profit/risk ratio. If amount of risk allows me to place multiple trades then I will do this and take profit at 15 and 30 pips, letting the third try to get to the target

So for instance at the moment EURUSD has just got up to 1.4 - a significant area of interest, however trading rules say it is too late to trade as it has moved 100pips + to get there, so is unlikely (though certainly possible) that it will continue much further today

 

[noviceuk]

Cable trade triggered - 20 pip profit limit hit before reversing and stopping out the other two trades for -30...
Took a buy trade on Cable later - after it dropped down to around PP it then reversed and started climbing - so I could put a stop behind PP. Ended up +60 so made up for the early start loss...

EurUsd has moved out of a congestion area so triggered for long trades. However it had moved quite far already and near R1 - so closed at +15 pips...so a better end to the week....up +35 pips for the day - and about 2% for the week

Looking forward - using the ATM-FX setup to manage trade entry and exit doesn't really give what I was looking for in terms of forewarning of good entry points and reversals - so will investigate other options

 

[noviceuk]

ok - looking back at the results for this month to date - biggest consistent loss was in the early morning Cable trade - so I've requested one of the suggested 'tweaks' to the system - hopefully that will cut those down a bit - and going outside my main focus to trade silver - far too volatile so will be ready to chop off hands if I start thinking it can't possibly do anything but go up.)
Hopefully that will improve the day-day trading

Long term/swing trades. Now looking to borrow another strategy from Phil Newton (so subscribe to his website if you want more details on it, and no I'm not on commission..).
As you can see from the attached chart looking at EURUSD - when it breaks out of a congestion zone it tends to keep going, I have been looking at that to establish trends to trade short term. However there is no real reason why it can't be used on the longer term - so the plan will be to wait for a breakout from such a zone, and then place a trade and look for a % of the average weekly move, taking off some profits as they come and moving the stop appropriately
Second strategy I am investigating is NNT - nuff said here
Third is looking for a simple break of a S/R level in the direction of a trending pair. Hopefully combined this will give an overall strategy that can be adapted to trending and non-trending markets

 

[noviceuk]

22 Mar update:
Cable trade triggered on Monday - as this has been trading within a range recently I don't look for any large moves - so took 1/3rd off at 15 pips (approx 10% of ATR) hoped to take the rest off at +30 but never made it - ended up + 49 pips in total
Also took a sell on USDCAD at 9792 as this represented a drop out of a recent trading range - which was closed at 10 points above S1 for +33 pips - with the R:R and where the stop loss was placed represents 2%

Longer term trade triggered on EUR/USD at just above 1.4200 and a sell on USD/CHF - so both still running (demo acct)
No early morning Cable trade this morning - but following my standard trading plan triggered a buy at 16321, which I closed for +22 Pips manually
Also took a sell on USD/CAD -ended up almost a wash, up 9 pips, it went to 15 pips in the black so I sold half and moved the stop to just above breakeven after it spent a few hrs consolidating, and then was stopped out.

EUR/USD has retraced below 14200 - which is the daily pivot line - so have put in a limit buy 10 pips above with a stop below it's lowest retracement - so will wait to see if this triggers - other than that don't see a lot to target this afternoon as yet

 

[noviceuk]

ok - end of another week - started off ok but trailed off towards the end meaning I'm still down a bit for the month - here's hoping next week works out better...

Early morning Cable Trade - have updated the main indicator used based on the forum, and invested 75 quid into the FMT trading system - seems a bit MT focused but hopefully I can set up the same indicators on standard charts, and need to be a bit smarter about how to manage the trade going forward (like this week adding 10 pips to stop would have put it the other side of a channel which in the end acted as resistance, turning a loss in to profit

Intra-day trading - the setup to look for direction to trade in I am comfortable with, but the entry and stops not so much (ATM-FX) - the 'additional indicator' this uses to signal trade entry and exit is too lagging to be of any use, so I am going to go back to simple price action to time entry

Inter-day - - the demo account has been ticking up nicely - took long trades on AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF which all came in to make around 4%. Trade setup for these are:

- look for area of congestion in 4hr timeframe
- Wait for pair to trade outside of this and look to trade in the direction of breakout
- Trade entry based on 15 minute window - looking for test, reversal and then trade past
- Trade management - stop 150 pips or other side of congestion area
- Exit:run trade for 2:1 profit initially, take 50% off and move to BE at 150 points
Plan will be to use Fib retracement to time exits ..

alternative entry - if pair is already trending, look for area of resistance/retracement and place order on break with stop other side of furthest part of retracement

 

[noviceuk]

Start of week - so where are the currency pairs I follow:
AUDUSD - range bound between 10220 and 10300
EURGBP - signalling a sell
EURUSD signalling a sell
GBPUSD signalling a sell but likely strong support at 16000
NZDUSD has been a buy but looking at consolidating
USDCAD range bound between 9820 and 9750
USDCHF looking for a break above 9230

USDJPY looking for break above 8200

 

[noviceuk]

Day trading:
Took a small amount of profit on Cable but reversed and took me out as I had moved stop to BE before I left...
Took a buy on USDCHF - which was promptly stopped out - and took a further sell on Cable - all of which left me a few pips up for the day.
One other trade on Eur/USD still running - was expecting it to continue to sell off but it reversed up to PP - and is now treading water- hopefully will resume a downward trend but if it stops out I'll be slightly down for the day..

Longer term trading: Looking at USDCHF after being taken out decided it has probably reached a turning point in that it had been in a short term uptrend but has now resumed a downtrend - as can be seen on the chart it appears to have hit a resistance level and reversed so took a sell.

Second chart shows a buy on NZDUSD - assuming trend will continue after the recent retracement

Both trades have stops other side of recent swings and aiming for 2:1 profit

 

[noviceuk]

Wed 6th April:
Demo account - trading 4 hr window charts on the currency pairs I follow - is going up well - qtn is whether this is just luck (happen to pick a time when the strategy is working), psychological (always easier to leave trades running if the money isn't real) or it is a viable long term strategy......

Since the account was ticking down I have reduced the trade size to around 1% - and will continue with that for this week, hopefully trading strategy is now working ok: -
Long term trades working ok using demo acct strategy - starting to implement them on the live acct
Early Cable trading has picked up some points but need to make sure I fully understand FMT (+10 pips today)
I will start to use the 3 ducks system to time shot term/scalping/intr-day trades, as long as the currency pair in question has moved out of a congestion area and established a new trend

 

[noviceuk]

Start of week - so where are the currency pairs I follow:
AUDUSD - signalling a buy
EURGBP - range bound
EURUSD signalling a buy
GBPUSD trending up but currently range bound
NZDUSD signalling a buy
USDCAD range bound
USDCHF signalling a sell
USDJPY range bound but general trend buy

 

[noviceuk]

NZD/USD - still in buy trade from last week - currently up 30 pips - target is 7915 - 10 points shy of R3
Limit buy in forAUD/USD at 10590
limit buy in for EUR/USD at 14495
Limit sell on USD/CHF at 9056
Limit buy on USD/JPY at 8563

No trade on Cable this morning - indicators indecisive -

 

[noviceuk]

Start of a new week - longer term trend trades have been working well on demo account so starting to trade these live:
Looking for longs on AUD/USD and NZD/USD at the moment
Manual Cable trade +20 points this morning - 15m candle closed below S1 and kept going so took the trade with a 30 pip stop and PL just above S2.
EA made one trade that was closed out at 8:30 for 125 pds on the demo acct, need to look in to which EA triggered and which didn't , as I think both FMT and FNT should have triggered today ?

 

[noviceuk]

Start of week - so where are the currency pairs I follow:
AUDUSD - range bound between 10420 and 10580
EURGBP - signalled a sell @ 8815
EURUSD signalled a sell @14362
GBPUSD signalled a sell @ 16240
NZDUSD in buy mode but l currently retracing
USDCAD signalled a buy @9660
USDCHF signalled a buy @8960
USDJPY trending down - but not willing to trade against expected intervention

 

[noviceuk]

Entered long USDCHF @ 8980 stop placed at 8895 - below previous support

 

[noviceuk]

entered long AUD/USD at 10505 - SL 10445 initial target 10620
Limit buy orders in for EURGBP and NZDUSD

 

[noviceuk]

GBPUSD early morning trade buy triggered - made +30 pips
EURGBP buy triggered at 8810
NZDUSD triggered at 7907
AUDUSD hit PT +120 pips

EURUSD triggered a buy on NNT but missed it so may look for good entry level

 

[Pat494]

Trading goals...
So what is the point of trading ? My goal is to reach a stage where I can give up the day job, but not replace it with another ....so trading a few hours in the morning and spend 30 mins or so in the evening checking charts etc. I have bought systems and subscribed to rt data Feeds before but now rely primarily on standard charts from IG etc
I would like to get to the stage where i can plan and place longer term trades in the evening looking for trades that last days to ride long term trends. Trading over Xmas and summer tend to be more difficult so I stop trading mid-dec to mid-Jan and will likely do the same over the summer..

..-)

I found these people by chance today on the web and don't know much about them but they could be what would suit a busy person with lots of other things to do. Have 20 fully automated systems to choose from. Called Tradency.com

 

[Pat494]

Just one more point

I am appraising Elwave on a free demo

I enclose a screenshot. Please tell me what you think of this system.

It seems to be forecasting about a month + ahead

 

[noviceuk]

Anyone with a tag line like that deserves a response...we can only hope for the day...

Thanks for pointing me in that direction - I have just set up a VPS with SLM and running EAs from FNT and Morning trade - which will hopefully allow me to miss the 6:15 start - just demo at the moment until I am sure I have it all working correctly.. and the longer term trading seems to be working ok based on the 4hr window, meaning looking at charts and managing trades am, lunchtime and evening for about 20 mins a time. I'll take a look at the links though so thanks, any automated trading that brings in a nice steady gain would be welcomed..

Just one more point

I am appraising Elwave on a free demo

I enclose a screenshot. Please tell me what you think of this system.

It seems to be forecasting about a month + ahead

 

[noviceuk]

Start of week - so where are the currency pairs I follow:
AUDUSD - looking like a buy
EURGBP - range bound
EURUSD - bullish
GBPUSD - bullish
NZDUSD in buy mode
USDCAD looking like it's heading downwards
USDCHF looking like heading for a sell but have been burned by this one too many times so want to see a clear direction
USDJPY trending down - but not willing to trade against expected intervention
Lots of talk about USD may finally start gaining some strength but we shall see -

Cable early morning trade went against me - but EA's are making money - looks like the way to go, no discretionary trading, no having to be up at 6:15 - what's not to like ? but will probably monitor for another week or so and then move to a live account

Taken a buy on NZDUSD at 8045 and AUDUSD @ 10760