*Darwinex vs SP500*

[AriaS]

Top 10 Darwins (Hall of Fame users) vs SP500. Last 5 years. The maximal DD of SP500 is about 30%, so I used the x4 leverage (VaR = 26%).
Not bad, isn't it? SP500 gained only 100%. Clear victory for the Darwins! But! There is a big catch! Even though we would expect the risk to be around 26%, with this leverage the actual DD could have theoretically reached 80% (if all the individual max DDs happened at the same time, like March 2020?). 26% VaR doesn't mean that maximal DD would be 26%. It only means that 19/20 months the profit will be above -26%. Still there's a 1/20 chance that it will be anywhere between -100% and -26%. So if we wanted our max DD to be around 26%, we should have set the x1.5 leverage, and then the SP500 is the clear winner. Funny that hadn't it been for the Darwinex fees there would be a draw. What's more of a problem, the VaR would almost certainly show less than 26%, because of the diversification, and this could mislead us even further.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

That is an invalid comparison as S&P stocks pay additional dividends which aree not included in the S&P index while Darwinex takes investor and management fees.
You are in completely different risk classes and costs.
Also you can only compare unleveraged Darwin portfolios as the index is always unleveraged.

If you waat to compare Darwins you should take a Hedge Fonds index like the Barclay Hedge Fund Index.

BarclayHedge Indices - BarclayHedge

portal.barclayhedge.com

Usually Hedge Fund indices don't last longer than 5 years as they lose money (as the majority of Darwins do, too).

With the Darwinex tools you always sewe only the survivors from today backwards, which can be fooling the user.