[DARWIN] TTD by Captain Currency

[ffsear]

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TTD is currently at -3.63% for the month.

CC, Just some feedback. Excellent level, excellent entry. But risk reward is poor here. My question is why are you using such a large stop? Personally here, if 1.3005 went then I'd be cutting the trade.

 

[Captain Currency]

Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Jpy +18 pips / +0.52%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.21%

TTD is currently at +0.62% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Excellent level, excellent entry.

Howdy @ffsear , nice to hear from you.

But risk reward is poor here. My question is why are you using such a large stop?

RvR is decent imo, SL was 10 pips and TP was 18 pips on that position, you think differently?

Personally here, if 1.3005 went then I'd be cutting the trade.

I agree, like the post mentioned the trade was managed, SL was dropped down to BE before the TP was reached. If price would have went back up to 1.3005 the trade would have been cut / scratched for 0 pips

 

[ffsear]

Howdy


RvR is decent imo, SL was 10 pips and TP was 18 pips on that position, you think differently?



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Just preference for me I guess. I try not to take a trade if I dint see at least a 3:1 return. That way i only need a win rate of 25% to breakeven

 

[Captain Currency]

Just preference for me I guess. I try not to take a trade if I dint see at least a 3:1 return. That way i only need a win rate of 25% to breakeven

Good luck with that

 

[Captain Currency]

Thursday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.26%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd -8 pips / -0.20%

Trade 3
Usd.Jpy -10 pips / -0.31%

Trade 4
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.24%

Trade 5
Eur.Usd +17 pips / +0.39%

TTD is currently at 0% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Friday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.27%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd +17 pips / +0.41%

Trade 3
Usd.Jpy +17 pips / +0.48% see chart below ⬇️

Trade 4
Usd.Cad -20 pips / -0.50%

Trade 3 by the afternoon when the madness of NFP had passed, I tracked Usd.Jpy for a dip as it had been moving-up steady during the day. With an initial SL of 10 and a TP of 17 this trade was managed once we got into profit.

The entry was good (red circle) and price obliged moving in our favour fairly quickly, I could have squeezed another +10 pips of profit out of this trade. The chart below (a post-exit screenshot) gives an idea of the trade. Horizontal lines would give an idea where the entry, SL and TP where, I don't always have the chance to capture live images while I'm in the trade, I'd be thinking of more important stuff

UPDATE: from the graph below you can see average losing trades (red lower section on bars) are reducing in size, I've purposely cut the SL size on some setups from -20 pips to -10 pips. I feel some setups (like the pullback trade above) don't need a SL of 20, if it's going to work (the majority of them) should work with a 10 SL.

I feel overall results from momentum setups will also benefit with a 10 pip SL rather than a 20 pip SL, no doubt I'll be kicking myself on some trades that get stopped out at -10 only to see price then go up / down to the TP. These decisions are based on a larger group of trades rather than just a few that might fall through the net.

The 20 SL will remain on setups (Trade 4 ⬆️) where I reckon there is a reversal possibility, these setups need an extra bit of legroom if they are to turn.

Over the past 16 trades the average losing trade is -8.54 pips and the average winning trade is +17.02 pips. Win rate at 37.50% could do with been a bit higher - work in progress 🙏

TTD is currently at +0.12% for the month.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

I feel overall results from momentum setups will also benefit with a 10 pip SL rather than a 20 pip SL, no doubt I'll be kicking myself on some trades that get stopped out at -10 only to see price then go up / down to the TP. These decisions are based on a larger group of trades rather than just a few that might fall through the net.

This is exactly the point.
Here you are tryng to refine a strategy to find a proftable ruleset.
Positive RR is a good thing but I never found a profitable strategy with very high RR like 4 or 5 .
Forcing a very high RR would only produce a losing strategy with very long losing streaks.
What matters is a positive pip balance after years and hundreds of trades.

 

[Captain Currency]

Positive RR is a good thing but I never found a profitable strategy with very high RR like 4 or 5 .

On the same page @CavaliereVerde, having observed price action post-exit (when my TP has been hit), in my experience it would be rare that price would continue to offer me much more R's beyond 2:1, average daily pip movement has to top out at some point.

Forcing a very high RR would only produce a losing strategy with very long losing streaks.

It would also drive you to the drink 🍺 ...

 

[ffsear]

On the same page @CavaliereVerde, having observed price action post-exit (when my TP has been hit), in my experience it would be rare that price would continue to offer me much more R's beyond 2:1, average daily pip movement has to top out at some point.


It would also drive you to the drink 🍺 ...

Do you use a fixed position size?

 

[Captain Currency]

Do you use a fixed position size?

Yep, when managing a Darwin you try and keep risk stable in the underlying account. Fixed position sizing will help the Darwin trade with a 6.5 % VaR target risk.

 

[ffsear]

Wondering if I should have a little go on darwin for fun. Is there a sign up link? Assume i need to start on demo?

 

[Captain Currency]

Wondering if I should have a little go on darwin for fun. Is there a sign up link? Assume i need to start on demo?

Give it a go @ffsear,

You can become an investor and add Darwin TTD to your portfolio on demo or real

 

[Captain Currency]

Monday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Jpy -10 pips / -0.32%

Trade 2
Usd.Jpy +15 pips / +0.47%

Trade 1 a pullback type of setup suited the current phase on Usd.Jpy but this trade had no intentions of working-out for us. With a TP at 18 and a SL at 10 I was glad to exit when I did, this trade would have easily eaten a 20 pip SL.

Trade 2 another pullback / retracement setup on Usd.Jpy this time going short. Entry was good (red circle) and price soon pushed lower heading towards our TP at 15 just before support. Trade was managed once we headed into profit and the SL was dropped down close to breakeven.

TTD is currently at +0.27% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Tuesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Eur.Usd -0.1 pips / -0.01%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad +20 pips / +0.52%

Trade 2 part of the game plan over the past few days was to get long Usd.Cad, I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of reversal / mean revision on this pair. With this bullish bias in mind I was looking to buy a pullback during a suitable phase (not too volatile). The pullback setup (chart below) presented itself but I felt it was only good for 2R (20 pips) this time around. Price action on the day, the 5m chart especially was "twitchy" and not great for letting a trade run into TP2 or TP3 which I'd have liked to do on this setup.

Screenshot below will give an indication of entry (red circle), TP at +20 pips and the SL that was initially at 10 pips but was pushed up once the trade got moving in our direction. Soon after the TP was successfully hit price swooped down like a bird of prey and would have taken us out at BE had we let the trade target TP2 / TP3, twitchy PA indeed 😲

TTD is currently at +0.80% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Wednesday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.27%

Trade 2
Usd.Cad +16 pips / +0.41%

Trade 3
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.28%

TTD is currently at +0.65% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

Thursday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad -10 pips / -0.31%

Trade 2
Eur.Usd -10 pips / -0.30%

Trade 3
Usd.Jpy +16 pips / +0.51%

Trade 3 sometime the obvious trades are the best trades and I reckoned a pullback / retracement kind of setup suited the current phase best on Usd.Jpy. With an initial SL of 10 pips and a TP of +16 pips this trade never gave us trouble and obliged by heading south down to our target. Before the target was met, TM kicked in and the SL was dropped down down to BE and covered the risk.

1 month stats & results:

Avg win: +15.27 pips
Avg loss: -7.75 pips
Win rate: 40.48%

TTD is currently at +0.55% for the month.

 

[LongVision]

some trades especially counter-trend trades into TP2 (+28 pips) and TP3 (+48 pips). This will no doubt see some trades squeeze outside of the day-trade class. All trades will however keep their stop-loss at -20 pips (or less) irrespective of the TP.

I have different experience as a algo trader for counter-trend trades. There is no advantage of tight stoploss for counter trend setup. TP @25% to 50% of SL is optimal.

Tight SL elimnates a large portion of the loss of the big losers. They do cap the loss on the big losers, but a lot of trades that would have been winners or small losers will hit the stop, get taken out of play, and then any rebound from the stop point won’t be seen. The net result isn’t an increase in profit‐per‐trade.

What is your opinion and experience about Tight Stoploss.

 

[Captain Currency]

Friday went a bit like this:

Trade 1
Usd.Cad +18 pips / +0.47%

Trade 1 after a bit of studying and pen nibbling I felt a "top and stop" type of setup best suited the current movement on Usd.Cad. Target selection (+18 pips) was decided pre-entry, I wasn't expecting too big of a drop-off in price if this daily top was to hold. SL was fixed at 10 pips but that never came under much pressure, entry was good (red circle chart below) and price soon started moving in our direction and reached our TP.

TTD is currently at +1.02% for the month.

 

[Captain Currency]

I have different experience as a algo trader for counter-trend trades. There is no advantage of tight stoploss for counter trend setup. TP @25% to 50% of SL is optimal.

I could possibly agree with you @LongVision if I was trading let's say a 4hr chart and fading an up-trend. Realistically the SL would need to be generous imo (100 - 200 pips) if I was going against the flow. The TP probably wouldn't be too great in context, as you say maybe 25% to 50% of the overall SL size

But the above opinion may not hold true for day-trading. Non-trending days for pairs, even trending days can / do present opportunities to fade the move with a tight SL and positive RvR to boot.

I'd say there is an advantage, over the next 50 counter-trend day trade setups, I'd be fairly confident I'd make a net profit using a tight SL and that the net profit would be greater than using a looser SL and a TP of 25% to 50% of that SL 😉