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[Darwin] FLU by joyny

joyny

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Hi!

This is another my darwin FLU awarded in August 2022 DarwinAI - allocated capital 50000$ :)

16 months already running. Started with 200 USD to test the new strategy with EURUSD and NDX. Was drawdown 40% because of small capital.

Now earned +840 USD in profits, made scaling, and increased lots size from 0.01 to 0.02. The expected drawdown is about 10-15%.

Here are running 60 EAs to catch rare entries (not so rare for NDX actually).

Using my own created indicator - fluctuations of pattern profitability. Any signal can be... universal approach.. therefore so glad to see the indicator is working. Now, will make a lot of similar but different signals/patterns for entries.

Backtested this strategy with 10 years of history. Now 1.5 years already on the real account. So far all according to backtests.

See here was uploaded EURUSD baktests in Darwinex platform when developed strategy (NDX not included here):

flu_eurusd_backtests.png


And here actual results for EURUSD 16 months:

eurusd_16_months.png


And here NDX 16 months results:

ndx_16_months.png



Both on 1 account running here, EURUSD has 40 EAs with various risk/rewards setups from 1:3 to 3:1. NDX has 20 EAs.

Usually, NDX opens with 2-4 deals - all different SL/TP. It depends on pattern fluctuations. There was 1 day when 26 deals were made for NDX. Maximum 5 opened deals at the same time.

Think better to run each symbol on a separate account. But ok... 16 months already done. Next Darwins with the fluctuations approach will create separately for each symbol. Because in that way it is better to choose when to enter Darwin. Better have 5 darwins than 1. For me at least. But ok - this account is running and performing normally. NDX won't make anymore so abnormal growth.. limited risks. Experimental time ended and now continues to run with a smaller risk.

Warning: please do not put all your money in this 1 darwin. Diversify. Make a portfolio of n darwins.

Start to invest in this darwin when it is in DD 5-7%.

About me: trading since 2018. Have analyst and coding skills for more than 15 years. Experience to work with big data for insurance companies. Master's degree in computer science and bachelor's degree in mathematics-statistics. I like very much "randomness". I trade only automated. Have n other darwins - some good, some bad. Therefore diversify.
 
Here I will explain how I prepare FLU 60 EAs setups to run on 1 account and calculate the money needed for 60 EAs.

Explanation here is as an example - using data from brand new darwin on what I am working on now. But the approach for the FLU was the same.

1. I run on MT5 optimization for the period 2010 - 2020. And then forward test for period 2020 - 2022

2. I optimize for "Max Recovery Factor" because I am interested in setups where I get max reward for being into drawdown

3. Then I pick up stable setups which performed well in backtests and in forward tests

4. I upload backtests/forward tests reports files to my software which developed for analysis purposes

5. Then the software does calculations so I see how to behave entire portfolio of EAs and I get something similar like this:

asset.png


What I get here is:
1) How many drawdowns were more than 10% - in this example 27 times in 12 years
2) Max and average drawdown
3) Average profit between drawdowns - so this is useful for Darwins - when to enter/exit investing in Darwin
4) I understand that I need to survive 2x more than the historical max drawdown - in this case, I accept that DD might be 50% of my account then I need 600 usd to run those EAs portfolio here

6. Software generates for me an Excel file which I can use for further analysis - here example of what I look for in Excel file:

asset_dd2.png


The yellow color is a forward test. Here I see how long DD might be. When a portfolio of EAs is running I am ready to be in drawdown 2x more than I see here. This is my approach that I always expect that with real trading DD will be 2x more.

OK.. this particular example on USDJPY (this is not FLU, I just explain how FLU was done here) is not very promising because was 126 days in DD.. (so in real life might expect even more days).

Anyway, continue to analyze this example. I then see Pivot data of trades - software generates all 20 backtest/forward test trades in 1 single Excel so I can analyze. Here it is:

asset_prof.png


Conclusion: with initial capital 600 usd, would be in DD 50% and could expect to earn 1700 usd (estimate 2x less than backtests) profits in 12 years. Yearly it is ~140 usd profits. It is 23% profits yearly on average. It beats SP500. But FLU is better :)

This was just an intro about USDJPY how I do analysis when created FLU.
 
Here made some stats regarding current FLU results (data on 31 August).

EURUSD stats by 40 EAs magic numbers (21 EAs did some trades):

eurusd_flu.png


NDX stats by 20EAs magic numbers (9 EAs no trades):

ndx_flu.png


All trades with fixed TP/SL with various risk/rewards (1:3 to 3:1) for EURUSD and 1:1 risk/rewards for NDX (but different SL/TP in pips for each EA). Each EA have different entry rules based on self-made profitability fluctuations indicator.

Magic number for each EA contains info about TP and SL. First 2 digits is TP, then 2 digits is SL.
 
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Now FLU is much better - turned of NDX EAs. Now only EURUSD. Adjusted order volume. Here results for October 2022 and in that way should continue.. much much less risky.

flu_eurusd0.png

flu_eurusd1.png


The reason why turned off NDX was too big turbulences and too overlapping EAs... NDX EAs had different entry/exit setups but somehow they still had too much overlap. Therefore it turned out as x5 order volumes sometimes. This is now fixed. Will evaluate NDX and adjust setups. Maybe will turn on someday back again NDX too.

but for investors this October results is just 0.38%... hmm.. darwinex x10 adjusted my results. Ok need some time to Darwinex detect that there are no more turbulences and no need to adjusts risks. hope so 🙏
 
Hi! Many congratulations for the creativity in the strategies, I find them very interesting.

Would you tell me the differences between GBN and GBR? Thank you.
 
Hi! Many congratulations for the creativity in the strategies, I find them very interesting.

Would you tell me the differences between GBN and GBR? Thank you.

Hi! Thank you!

GBN - 1 EA trading GBPUSD breakouts with fixed sl/tp
GBR - 12 EAs trading GBPUSD patterns profitability statistical fluctuations with various fixed sl/tp combinations

Initially, GBR was trading the same strategy as GBN with the exception that after 2 losses it opened 1 deal with 2x volume. But still, there was a too close correlation with GBN, and GBR was excluded from DarwinAI, therefore, redesigned GBR with a different approach - starting from October 2022.
 
It seems that Gbn performs better than Gbr, although statistically, Dont have too many operations in both. What do you think? Would you put more money in Gbr than in Gbn?

Nowday, after 2 losses on Gbn. Do you open a trade with 2x , in volumen?

GBN, has a very low dradown in 15 months, 3,5% drawdown, what point do you recommend entry?

Thank you very much.
 
It seems that Gbn performs better than Gbr, although statistically, Dont have too many operations in both. What do you think? Would you put more money in Gbr than in Gbn?

I would split to diversify. I do not rely on any particular darwin.. Some win some lose. For example, on Friday I closed FBS EA trading META stock. Failed. Too big DD. Accepting my losses (~30%) and will deploy a new set of EAs trading currencies. For me seems now stocks trading is very different than currencies and for me, better results are from currency trading. Therefore will focus more on that.

Nowday, after 2 losses on Gbn. Do you open a trade with 2x , in volumen?

No, GBN runs as it was designed from the beginning, and no changes. No 2x using here.

GBN, has a very low dradown in 15 months, 3,5% drawdown, what point do you recommend entry?

Thank you very much.

GBN was testet with 10 years data. Now run additional 3 years. I can say that there were periods when the trading account go drawdown 20% if traded with 100 usd. Now on the trading account is already 200 usd. So, 3.5% dd would be 7%. Therefore can expect 3x more DD. Better wait for 10 to 12% DD from now.

All my strategies trading patterns and profitability fluctuates over time. Have made several darwins and i continue to learn.

Better invest in multiple darwins to diversify.

NOT - 10 EAs
FLU - 41 EAs
GBN - 1 EA
GBR - 12 EAs

I by myself like very much my NOT.. But it is up now and needs to wait for DD 10% to enter.

Here analysis of NOt from 2013 and from 2020 is forwardtests:

not_1.png


not_2.png


NOT will have about ~70 entries per year. So it wont have high scrores in DarwinAI because no enough experience.

not_results.png
 
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Regarding GBN drawdown here some stats. Took backtests data from Jan 2017 and added live trading data and calculated profitability % change over time.

Here in this chart can be seen profitability changes for live trading only (from Dec 2019) but profitability % is continuation of backtests data.

As can be noticed now GBN profitability % is at an all-time low. GBN as all my strategies are based on a pattern. Patterns profitability fluctuate. And here we see fluctuation oscillations:

gbn_fluct.png


It cant fluctuate very long distance in one way. Therefore I now invest in GBN.
 
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FLU achieved notable progress, secured allocations from DarwinAI, and has been categorized under "Good Scores.":

IMG_20230827_081351.jpg


Due to unforeseen drawdowns, will be closing 40 Expert Advisors trading EURUSD:

IMG_20230827_075613.jpg


NDX assisted in minimizing the total drawdown, which helped maintain reasonable performance levels. However, to enhance overall results, it's worth noting that NDX's new strategy, initiated in January 2023, has been demonstrating stable outcomes:

IMG_20230827_075332.jpg


Let's see if this will aid in meeting the new DarwinAI eligibility criteria:

IMG_20230827_081849.jpg
 
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Thank you all investors for your trust so far as FLU made an impressive run-up for a while.

Please now consider this information from 5 years of backtests/forwardtests:

flu_backtests.png


And here LIVE trading so far on Darwinex:

flu_live.png


As you see historically run-up lasts 5-6 months. Now is already 6 months up. I'm not a negative thinker.. just a mathematician. All my strategies work on some patterns. And patterns of profitability always (100% guaranteed) fluctuate over time.

For FLU DD are when stock markets stay too long in flat/choppy - not clear direction. If crash - strategy will handle it and exit break even. When going up or retracing and still down - strategy anyway will earn. I see in the chart that NDX did quite a big retrace and ran up till the previous high now:

NDX_now.png


ndx_choppy.png


I now exit my own investment in my own FLU Darwin with 15% profits and will wait for DD -4%. Then will add more money to the account and increase trading volume.
 
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